FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Wiklof Holding Arena
Referee: D. Antamo
Mariehamn
Match Timeline
Lahti
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
21'
Y. Cassubie · Assist: R. Sans
Lahti
🔄
30'
K. Ward ↔ N. Nurmi
Mariehamn
42'
R. Sans · Assist: R. Sans
Lahti
🟨
52'
N. Nurmi
Mariehamn
55'
Neemias · Assist: Martim Augusto
Lahti
🔄
62'
A. Huttunen ↔ A. Bergvik
Mariehamn
🔄
62'
V. Widlund ↔ W. Nunez
Mariehamn
🔄
62'
J. Nissinen ↔ R. Monteiro
Mariehamn
🔄
69'
Martim Augusto ↔ A. Belabid
Lahti
🔄
76'
O. Koskinen ↔ A. Lindholm
Lahti
🔄
76'
Neemias ↔ D. Heikkinen
Lahti
🔄
83'
T. Koivisto ↔ J. Heyden
Mariehamn
🟨
84'
J. Svedberg
Mariehamn
🔄
86'
V. Vehkonen ↔ T. Inkinen
Lahti
🔄
86'
E. Andersson ↔ A. Kabashi
Lahti

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 89.5%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
89.5%
-
BTTS No
60.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-3
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mariehamn Win 10.6%
Draw 35.9%
Lahti Win 53.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mariehamn0.83
Lahti1.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mariehamn Mariehamn
WWDLW
13 GF / 39 GA
Lahti Lahti
WLDWL
25 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
0.68
Average Goals Scored
1.32
2.05
Average Goals Conceded
1.05
9
BTTS Yes
11
9
Over 2.5
7
1.4
Shots on Goal
2.13

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mariehamn Mariehamn 19 matches
Lahti Lahti 19 matches
Mariehamn Statistic Lahti
1 Wins 6
6 Draws 7
12 Losses 6
13 Goals For 25
39 Goals Against 20
0.68 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
2.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
9 BTTS Yes 11
16 Over 1.5 14
9 Over 2.5 7
5 Over 3.5 4
0 Clean Sheets 5
10 Failed To Score 4
1.4 Shots On Goal 2.13
3.67 Total Shots 7.13
1.93 Corners 3.07
24.3% Ball Possession 33.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Lahti's more proactive style and Mariehamn's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Mariehamn have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Lahti carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 19 points while Mariehamn sit 12 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Lahti. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mariehamn expected to line up in 4-4-1-1 and Lahti in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lahti having the stronger overall control.

Mariehamn Analysis

With 4 points from 15 games and a place of 12, Mariehamn still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 4 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 8:33 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Huttunen (1 goals), S. Dahlström (1 goals), with creative support from Y. Amankwah (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lahti Analysis

Lahti sit 8 with 19 points after 15 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, while the 18:15 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Tòfol Montiel (1 goals), Martim Ferreira (1 goals), with creative support from Tòfol Montiel (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Mariehamn won 4 times, Lahti won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:15 from Mariehamn's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (89.5%)
Predicted formations: Mariehamn 4-4-1-1 / Lahti 4-3-3
H2H summary: Mariehamn wins 4, draws 5, Lahti wins 6
Stats
Mariehamn Mariehamn
Lahti Lahti
Shots on Goal
1
Shots on Goal
9
Shots off Goal
0
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
3
5 Corner Kicks 5
13 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 4
34% Ball Possession 66%
3 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Goal 9
0 Shots off Goal 4
2 Blocked Shots 3
1 Shots insidebox 12
1 Shots outsidebox 4
7 Goalkeeper Saves 1
262 Total passes 366
200 Passes accurate 310
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Mariehamn
Formation
Lahti
Kevin Lund
Kevin Lund
Jiri Nissinen
Jiri Nissinen
Karl Ward
Karl Ward
Tuomas Koivisto
Tuomas Koivisto
Aaro Soiniemi
Aaro Soiniemi
Emmanuel Patut
Emmanuel Patut
Viktor Widlund
Viktor Widlund
Adam Stroud
Adam Stroud
Jonathan Svedberg
Jonathan Svedberg
Anttoni Huttunen
Anttoni Huttunen
Thomas Klemetsen Jakobsen
Thomas Klemetsen Jakobsen
Osku Maukonen
Osku Maukonen
Romaric Yapi
Romaric Yapi
José Müller
José Müller
Väinö Vehkonen
Väinö Vehkonen
Romain Sans
🎯
Romain Sans
Erik Andersson
Erik Andersson
Yohan Cassubie
Yohan Cassubie
Otso Koskinen
Otso Koskinen
Momodou Sarr
Momodou Sarr
Neemias Barbosa
Neemias Barbosa
Martim Ferreira
🎯
Martim Ferreira
Mariehamn 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Kevin Lund
G
28
Jiri Nissinen
↓ 62'
D
4
Karl Ward
↓ 30'
D
5
Tuomas Koivisto
↓ 83'
D
3
Aaro Soiniemi
D
20
Emmanuel Patut
M
23
Viktor Widlund
↓ 62'
D
18
Adam Stroud
M
11
Jonathan Svedberg
🟨 84'
M
16
Anttoni Huttunen
↓ 62'
M
15
Thomas Klemetsen Jakobsen
M
Substitutes
2
Noah Nurmi
↑ 30' 🟨 52'
D
14
Arvid Bergvik
↑ 62'
M
22
Rui Monteiro
↑ 62'
M
9
Wille Nuñez
↑ 62'
F
8
Jelle van der Heyden
↑ 83'
M
32
Matias Riikonen
G
31
Samson Ngulube
D
7
Adam Larsson
F
43
Leo Andersson
F
Lahti 4-3-3
Starting XI
31
Osku Maukonen
G
27
Romaric Yapi
D
4
José Müller
D
6
Väinö Vehkonen
↓ 86'
D
3
Romain Sans
⚽ 42' 🎯 21' 🎯 42'
D
14
Erik Andersson
↓ 86'
M
18
Yohan Cassubie
⚽ 21'
M
10
Otso Koskinen
↓ 76'
M
77
Momodou Sarr
F
19
Neemias Barbosa
⚽ 55' ↓ 76'
F
11
Martim Ferreira
🎯 55' ↓ 69'
F
Substitutes
17
Amir Belabid
↑ 69'
F
7
Daniel Heikkinen
↑ 76'
M
9
Aaron Lindholm
↑ 76'
F
25
Topias Inkinen
↑ 86'
D
28
Armend Kabashi
↑ 86'
M
12
Aatu Hakala
G
20
Justus Ojanen
M
Last matches: Mariehamn
25.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
1
D
11.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
2
4
L
04.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
4
L
27.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
2
L
23.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
4
L
18.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
2
L
13.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
04.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
EIF
3
2
W
21.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sandviken
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
28.02.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sleipner
1
1
D
Last matches: Lahti
26.07.26
Vei
Lahti
Ilves
0
1
L
11.07.26
Vei
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
2
0
W
04.07.26
Vei
Lahti
Gnistan
1
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
0
0
D
17.06.26
Vei
Lahti
Gnistan
0
1
L
13.06.26
Vei
Lahti
SJK
2
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Lahti
Ilves
5
0
W
23.05.26
Vei
Lahti
KuPS
1
2
L
18.05.26
Vei
Lahti
VPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Lahti
Mariehamn
1
1
D
04.05.26
Vei
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
2
1
W
18.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Inter Turku
0
2
L
10.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
1
2
L
04.04.26
Vei
Lahti
FF Jaro
1
0
W
28.03.26
Fri
Lahti
JIPPO
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Lahti
SJK Akatemia
3
1
W
25.02.26
Fri
Lahti
GrIFK
2
2
D
17.01.26
Fri
Lahti
Haka
1
1
D
H2H: Mariehamn vs Lahti
20.07.26
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
2
L
26.05.26
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
1
L
10.05.26
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
1
1
D
05.03.26
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
4
0
W
19.09.24
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
2
1
L
18.08.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
0
D
12.05.24
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
3
0
L
23.02.24
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
1
1
D
08.10.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
0
D
23.07.23
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
0
2
W
16.04.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
2
3
L
19.02.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
2
L
18.09.22
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
6
0
W
26.08.22
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
0
2
W
02.04.22
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
0
D
Last matches: Mariehamn
25.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
1
D
27.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
2
L
23.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
4
L
13.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
04.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
EIF
3
2
W
28.02.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sleipner
1
1
D
H2H at home: Mariehamn
20.07.26
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
2
L
26.05.26
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
1
L
05.03.26
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
4
0
W
18.08.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
0
D
08.10.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
0
D
16.04.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
2
3
L
19.02.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
2
L
18.09.22
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
6
0
W
02.04.22
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
0
D
Last matches: Lahti
26.07.26
Vei
Lahti
Ilves
0
1
L
27.06.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
Lahti
Gnistan
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Lahti
KuPS
1
2
L
04.05.26
Vei
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
1
2
L
04.04.26
Vei
Lahti
FF Jaro
1
0
W
H2H away: Lahti
20.07.26
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
2
W
26.05.26
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
1
W
05.03.26
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
4
0
L
18.08.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
0
D
08.10.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
0
D
16.04.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
2
3
W
19.02.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
2
W
18.09.22
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
6
0
L
02.04.22
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
0
D

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 10 6 1 32:16 16 36
W W W W W
2 17 8 7 2 24:14 10 31
L D W D D
3 17 8 4 5 28:20 8 28
W W L L W
4 17 8 4 5 27:21 6 28
W W W L D
5 17 7 6 4 24:16 8 27
L L W W D
6 17 8 3 6 21:21 0 27
D L L D L
7
Lahti Away
17 6 4 7 20:16 4 22
L W W W D
8 17 6 4 7 20:20 0 22
L L W L W
9 17 6 4 7 29:30 -1 22
W W L D L
10 17 3 6 8 17:33 -16 15
W D W L D
11 17 3 5 9 19:27 -8 14
L L L W D
12 17 0 5 12 9:36 -27 5
D L L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)