FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 77.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
77.4%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mariehamn Win 17.5%
Draw 5.1%
Inter Turku Win 77.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mariehamn0.81
Inter Turku1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mariehamn Mariehamn
WWDLW
11 GF / 25 GA
Inter Turku Inter Turku
WLDWL
23 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
0.73
Average Goals Scored
1.35
1.67
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
8
BTTS Yes
8
6
Over 2.5
7
1.09
Shots on Goal
1.85

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mariehamn Mariehamn 15 matches
Inter Turku Inter Turku 17 matches
Mariehamn Statistic Inter Turku
1 Wins 9
6 Draws 5
8 Losses 3
11 Goals For 23
25 Goals Against 16
0.73 Avg Goals Scored 1.35
1.67 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
8 BTTS Yes 8
12 Over 1.5 12
6 Over 2.5 7
2 Over 3.5 3
0 Clean Sheets 6
7 Failed To Score 5
1.09 Shots On Goal 1.85
2.55 Total Shots 5.15
1.09 Corners 2.85
15.5% Ball Possession 26.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Inter Turku's more proactive style and Mariehamn's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Inter Turku. Mariehamn have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mariehamn expected to line up in 4-3-1-2 and Inter Turku in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Inter Turku having the stronger overall control. Inter Turku carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 26 points while Mariehamn sit 12 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Mariehamn Analysis

Mariehamn sit 12 with 4 points after 11 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 6:19, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through S. Dahlstrom (2 goals), A. Huttunen (1 goals), A. Larsson (1 goals), with creative support from Emmanuel Patut (1 assists), Luke Pearce (1 assists), T. Koivisto (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Inter Turku Analysis

Inter Turku arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 1 place with 26 points after 13 matches. The record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 20:11 goal balance, points toward mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Conteh (6 goals), J. Tuominen (3 goals), C. Jephta (2 goals), with creative support from C. Jephta (3 assists), Johannes Yli-Kokko (2 assists), L. Essomba (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Mariehamn won 2 times, Inter Turku won 10 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:24 from Mariehamn's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: Mariehamn 4-3-1-2 / Inter Turku 4-3-3
H2H summary: Mariehamn wins 2, draws 3, Inter Turku wins 10
Last matches: Mariehamn
18.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
2
L
13.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
04.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
EIF
3
2
W
21.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sandviken
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
28.02.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sleipner
1
1
D
Last matches: Inter Turku
17.06.26
Vei
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
3
3
D
13.06.26
Vei
Inter Turku
AC Oulu
0
0
D
30.05.26
Vei
Inter Turku
KuPS
1
1
D
23.05.26
Vei
Inter Turku
Turku PS
2
1
W
20.05.26
Vei
Inter Turku
Ilves
3
1
W
16.05.26
Vei
Inter Turku
SJK
3
1
W
09.05.26
Vei
Inter Turku
FF Jaro
2
0
W
05.05.26
Vei
Inter Turku
Gnistan
0
2
L
29.04.26
Vei
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
25.04.26
Vei
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
1
0
W
18.04.26
Vei
Inter Turku
Lahti
2
0
W
11.04.26
Vei
Inter Turku
Ilves
2
1
W
04.04.26
Vei
Inter Turku
VPS
0
0
D
28.03.26
Fri
Inter Turku
Sirius
1
0
W
08.03.26
Fri
Inter Turku
ODD Ballklubb
0
1
L
28.02.26
Fri
Inter Turku
FF Jaro
2
1
W
04.02.26
Fri
Inter Turku
PK-35
0
3
L
H2H: Mariehamn vs Inter Turku
25.04.26
H2H
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
1
0
L
24.01.26
H2H
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
1
0
L
02.07.25
H2H
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
0
0
D
10.05.25
H2H
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
2
2
D
26.01.25
H2H
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
2
0
L
06.10.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
02.08.24
H2H
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
3
0
L
05.05.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
3
1
W
03.02.24
H2H
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
0
2
W
30.07.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
2
L
22.05.23
H2H
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
1
1
D
04.02.23
H2H
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
1
0
L
04.09.22
H2H
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
2
3
L
29.04.22
H2H
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
4
0
L
11.02.22
H2H
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
2
1
L
Last matches: Mariehamn
13.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
04.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
EIF
3
2
W
28.02.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sleipner
1
1
D
H2H at home: Mariehamn
10.05.25
H2H
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
2
2
D
06.10.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
05.05.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
3
1
W
30.07.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
2
L
04.09.22
H2H
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
2
3
L
Last matches: Inter Turku
17.06.26
Vei
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
3
3
D
30.05.26
Vei
Inter Turku
KuPS
1
1
D
20.05.26
Vei
Inter Turku
Ilves
3
1
W
16.05.26
Vei
Inter Turku
SJK
3
1
W
05.05.26
Vei
Inter Turku
Gnistan
0
2
L
18.04.26
Vei
Inter Turku
Lahti
2
0
W
28.03.26
Fri
Inter Turku
Sirius
1
0
W
08.03.26
Fri
Inter Turku
ODD Ballklubb
0
1
L
H2H away: Inter Turku
10.05.25
H2H
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
2
2
D
06.10.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
W
05.05.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
3
1
L
30.07.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
2
W
04.09.22
H2H
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
2
3
W

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 7 5 1 20:11 9 26
D D D W W
2 12 8 1 3 18:9 9 25
W D W W W
3 13 6 6 1 19:12 7 24
W D D W W
4 12 5 4 3 21:13 8 19
D W W L D
5 11 5 2 4 17:15 2 17
W W W L W
6 11 4 5 2 11:9 2 17
W D L W D
7 11 4 3 4 12:11 1 15
L L W L L
8 12 4 3 5 19:21 -2 15
W W L W L
9 11 3 2 6 14:14 0 11
L L W L D
10 11 2 3 6 12:18 -6 9
L W L L L
11 12 1 4 7 10:27 -17 7
L L L W L
12 11 0 4 7 6:19 -13 4
L L L L D
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)