FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Wiklof Holding Arena
Referee: M. Roth
Mariehamn
Match Timeline
Ilves
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
22'
O. Tiitinen · Assist: J. Kilo
Ilves
45'
E. Patut · Assist: T. Koivisto
Mariehamn
55'
S. Dahlstrom · Assist: E. Patut
Mariehamn
🟨
62'
Tatu Miettunen
Ilves
63'
T. Hytonen · Assist: J. Kilo
Ilves
🔄
64'
J. Kilo ↔ R. Riski
Ilves
🔄
69'
N. Dosis ↔ A. Huttunen
Mariehamn
🔄
69'
L. Andersson ↔ L. Pearce
Mariehamn
🔄
69'
S. Ngulube ↔ A. Soiniemi
Mariehamn
🟨
75'
Kalle Wallius
Ilves
🔄
79'
J. Kanga ↔ A. Raymond
Ilves
🔄
83'
A. Larsson ↔ M. Hyvonen
Mariehamn
🔄
89'
S. Dahlstrom ↔ A. Lundberg
Mariehamn
🟨
90+3'
Emmanuel Patut
Mariehamn
🟨
90+3'
Anton Popovitch
Ilves
🔄
90+1'
O. Tiitinen ↔ Y. Raap
Ilves
🔄
90+1'
M. Stjopin ↔ O. Multala
Ilves

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 83.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
83.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
-
Probability Distribution
Mariehamn Win 83.3%
Draw 16.7%
Ilves Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mariehamn1.07
Ilves2.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mariehamn Mariehamn
WWDLW
6 GF / 10 GA
Ilves Ilves
WLDWL
15 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
2.5
1.67
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
4
BTTS Yes
3
2
Over 2.5
3
0.5
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mariehamn Mariehamn 6 matches
Ilves Ilves 6 matches
Mariehamn Statistic Ilves
1 Wins 3
3 Draws 0
2 Losses 3
6 Goals For 15
10 Goals Against 7
1 Avg Goals Scored 2.5
1.67 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
4 BTTS Yes 3
6 Over 1.5 4
2 Over 2.5 3
1 Over 3.5 2
0 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 1
0.5 Shots On Goal 3.5
3.5 Total Shots 9.5
0 Corners 4
24.5% Ball Possession 42.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Ilves. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mariehamn expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Ilves in 4-3-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ilves having the stronger overall control.

Mariehamn Analysis

Mariehamn are currently 10 in the standings with 1 points from 2 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, while the 1:4 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Larsson (1 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ilves Analysis

So far, Ilves have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 0 points from 2 matches. Their overall return of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 2:5 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by R. Riski (1 goals), T. Hytonen (1 goals), with creative support from J. Kilo (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Mariehamn won 3 times, Ilves won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:24 from Mariehamn's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.64 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (100%)
Predicted formations: Mariehamn 4-4-2 / Ilves 4-3-1-2
H2H summary: Mariehamn wins 3, draws 3, Ilves wins 8
Stats
Mariehamn Mariehamn
Ilves Ilves
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
4
5 Corner Kicks 4
11 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 1
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Goal 4
4 Shots off Goal 6
4 Blocked Shots 4
10 Shots insidebox 8
6 Shots outsidebox 6
2 Goalkeeper Saves 6
490 Total passes 495
426 Passes accurate 424
2.30 expected_goals 1.06
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Mariehamn
Formation
Ilves
K. Lund
K. Lund
J. Nissinen
J. Nissinen
T. Koivisto
🎯
T. Koivisto
N. Nurmi
N. Nurmi
S. Ngulube
S. Ngulube
J. Heyden
J. Heyden
N. Dosis
N. Dosis
E. Patut
🎯
E. Patut
S. Dahlstrom
S. Dahlstrom
A. Larsson
A. Larsson
L. Andersson
L. Andersson
F. Krkalic
F. Krkalic
O. Pettersson
O. Pettersson
V. Kumpu
V. Kumpu
T. Miettunen
T. Miettunen
K. Wallius
K. Wallius
O. Tiitinen
O. Tiitinen
A. Popovitch
A. Popovitch
M. Stjopin
M. Stjopin
J. Kanga
J. Kanga
J. Kilo
🎯
J. Kilo
T. Hytonen
T. Hytonen
Mariehamn 4-3-1-2
Starting XI
1
K. Lund
G
28
J. Nissinen
D
5
T. Koivisto
🎯 45'
D
2
N. Nurmi
D
31
S. Ngulube
↓ 69'
D
8
J. Heyden
M
6
N. Dosis
↓ 69'
M
20
E. Patut
⚽ 45' 🎯 55' 🟨 90+3'
M
10
S. Dahlstrom
⚽ 55' ↓ 89'
M
7
A. Larsson
↓ 83'
F
43
L. Andersson
↓ 69'
F
Substitutes
32
M. Riikonen
G
38
Y. Amankwah
D
64
M. Hyvonen
↑ 83'
F
21
A. Lundberg
↑ 89'
M
18
A. Stroud
M
16
A. Huttunen
↑ 69'
M
11
L. Pearce
↑ 69'
F
4
P. Lindgren
D
3
A. Soiniemi
↑ 69'
D
Ilves 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
12
F. Krkalic
G
4
O. Pettersson
24
V. Kumpu
D
16
T. Miettunen
🟨 62'
D
13
K. Wallius
🟨 75'
D
20
O. Tiitinen
⚽ 22' ↓ 90+1'
M
14
A. Popovitch
🟨 90+3'
M
8
M. Stjopin
↓ 90+1'
M
30
J. Kanga
↓ 79'
M
28
J. Kilo
🎯 22' 🎯 63' ↓ 64'
M
9
T. Hytonen
⚽ 63'
F
Substitutes
31
R. Leislahti
G
10
R. Riski
↑ 64'
F
6
Y. Raap
↑ 90+1'
M
22
O. Multala
↑ 90+1'
F
19
G. Bamba
D
23
A. Raymond
↑ 79'
M
25
S. Suvanne
D
17
S. Baranov
M
Last matches: Mariehamn
20.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
2
L
11.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
2
4
L
04.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
4
L
27.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
2
L
23.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
4
L
18.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
2
L
13.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
04.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
EIF
3
2
W
21.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sandviken
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
28.02.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sleipner
1
1
D
Last matches: Ilves
23.07.26
UEF
Ilves
Stjarnan
0
1
L
20.07.26
Vei
Ilves
Turku PS
3
1
W
16.07.26
UEF
Ilves
FC Differdange 03
3
1
W
08.07.26
UEF
Ilves
FC Differdange 03
0
0
D
04.07.26
Vei
Ilves
FF Jaro
1
2
L
27.06.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
2
2
D
23.06.26
Vei
Ilves
KuPS
3
4
L
17.06.26
Vei
Ilves
FF Jaro
5
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
Ilves
Turku PS
1
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Lahti
0
5
L
23.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Gnistan
2
0
W
20.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
2
2
D
08.05.26
Vei
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
0
W
02.05.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
Ilves
VPS
2
3
L
11.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
2
L
04.04.26
Vei
Ilves
KuPS
1
3
L
27.03.26
Fri
Ilves
MP
2
0
W
07.03.26
Fri
Ilves
Haka
0
1
L
H2H: Mariehamn vs Ilves
18.04.26
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
14.03.26
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
0
0
D
31.08.25
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
1
L
27.04.25
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
3
2
W
11.08.24
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
0
L
28.04.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
0
1
L
27.09.23
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
1
L
15.07.23
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
0
0
D
05.04.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
1
1
D
02.10.22
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
3
W
21.08.22
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
1
5
L
15.05.22
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
1
0
L
22.09.21
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
0
L
29.08.21
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
1
0
W
24.04.21
H2H
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
0
L
Last matches: Mariehamn
20.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
2
L
27.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
2
L
23.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
4
L
13.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
EIF
3
2
W
28.02.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sleipner
1
1
D
H2H at home: Mariehamn
18.04.26
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
27.04.25
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
3
2
W
28.04.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
0
1
L
05.04.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
1
1
D
21.08.22
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
1
5
L
29.08.21
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
1
0
W
Last matches: Ilves
23.07.26
UEF
Ilves
Stjarnan
0
1
L
20.07.26
Vei
Ilves
Turku PS
3
1
W
08.07.26
UEF
Ilves
FC Differdange 03
0
0
D
04.07.26
Vei
Ilves
FF Jaro
1
2
L
23.06.26
Vei
Ilves
KuPS
3
4
L
30.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Lahti
0
5
L
16.05.26
Vei
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
2
2
D
02.05.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
Ilves
VPS
2
3
L
11.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
Ilves
AZ Alkmaar
0
5
L
10.07.25
UEF
Ilves
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
6
L
H2H away: Ilves
18.04.26
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
27.04.25
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
3
2
L
28.04.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
0
1
W
05.04.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
1
1
D
21.08.22
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
1
5
W
29.08.21
H2H
Mariehamn
Ilves
1
0
L

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 6 1 29:15 14 33
W W W W D
2 16 8 7 1 23:12 11 31
D W D D D
3 16 7 6 3 23:13 10 27
L W W D W
4 16 8 2 6 20:20 0 26
L L D L W
5 16 7 4 5 27:20 7 25
W L L W D
6 16 7 4 5 25:20 5 25
W W L D D
7 16 6 4 6 20:15 5 22
W W W D D
8 16 6 4 6 20:19 1 22
L W L W D
9
Ilves Away
16 5 4 7 28:30 -2 19
W L D L W
10 16 3 5 8 18:25 -7 14
L L W D D
11 16 2 6 8 15:32 -17 12
D W L D L
12 16 0 4 12 8:35 -27 4
L L L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)