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ITALY › SERIE B
17.10.2026 15:15
Stadio Danilo Martelli

Mantova vs Palermo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
88%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
80.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Mantova Win 53.8%
Draw 9.7%
Palermo Win 36.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mantova2.08
Palermo1.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mantova Mantova
WWDLW
33 GF / 15 GA
Palermo Palermo
WLDWL
33 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
2.75
Average Goals Scored
2.36
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
8
BTTS Yes
8
8
Over 2.5
7
6
Shots on Goal
6.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mantova Mantova 12 matches
Palermo Palermo 14 matches
Mantova Statistic Palermo
8 Wins 9
2 Draws 3
2 Losses 2
33 Goals For 33
15 Goals Against 15
2.75 Avg Goals Scored 2.36
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
8 BTTS Yes 8
11 Over 1.5 12
8 Over 2.5 7
7 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 2
6 Shots On Goal 6.63
12.75 Total Shots 17.25
3.88 Corners 4
47.4% Ball Possession 50.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Palermo. Palermo look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mantova expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Palermo in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Palermo having the stronger overall control.

Mantova Analysis

Mantova come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 11 points after 5 matches. The return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 defeats, together with goals at 10:5, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through F. Ruocco (4 goals), V. Vlahović (2 goals), E. Gliozzi (1 goals), with creative support from A. Castellini (3 assists), V. Vlahović (1 assists), E. Gliozzi (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Palermo Analysis

Palermo approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 13 points after 5 outings. The return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats, together with goals at 10:5, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through D. Johnsen (3 goals), D. Vavassori (2 goals), J. Pohjanpalo (1 goals), with creative support from D. Johnsen (4 assists), J. Pohjanpalo (2 assists), T. Augello (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Mantova won 0 times, Palermo won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:5 from Mantova's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.3%)
Predicted formations: Mantova 3-4-2-1 / Palermo 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Mantova wins 0, draws 3, Palermo wins 1

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 14:7 7 16
W W D W W
2 6 4 2 0 13:6 7 14
W D W D W
3 6 4 1 1 11:6 5 13
W W D L W
4 6 3 3 0 9:3 6 12
D W D W D
5 6 3 2 1 7:4 3 11
D W L W D
6 6 3 1 2 11:7 4 10
W L D W W
7 6 3 1 2 11:8 3 10
W D L W W
8 6 3 1 2 8:5 3 10
W W W L D
9 6 2 1 3 12:10 2 7
L W L W D
10 6 2 1 3 5:8 -3 7
L L W L D
11 6 1 4 1 7:8 -1 7
L D D D W
12 6 2 1 3 6:13 -7 7
D L W L L
13 6 2 0 4 6:10 -4 6
L L L W L
14 6 1 3 2 8:7 1 6
D D W D L
15 6 1 3 2 5:7 -2 6
D D D W L
16 6 1 2 3 7:13 -6 5
L L D D L
17 6 1 1 4 4:6 -2 4
W L L L D
18 6 1 1 4 6:13 -7 4
L W L L L
19 6 1 0 5 6:12 -6 3
L L W L L
20 6 1 3 2 5:8 -3 2
D D D L W
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation