ITALY SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio Danilo Martelli
Referee: J. L. Sacchi
Mantova
Match Timeline
Monza
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
Ali Dembélé
Mantova
23'
R. Kouda · Assist: S. Trimboli
Mantova
🟨
28'
Andrea Petagna
Monza
35'
L. Mancuso · Assist: T. Marras
Mantova
🔄
56'
A. Colpani ↔ G. Caso
Monza
🔄
56'
P. Obiang ↔ Hernani
Monza
🔄
56'
F. Delli Carri ↔ A. Bakoune
Monza
🟨
57'
Hernani
Monza
🟨
59'
Stefano Cella
Mantova
🔄
65'
P. Azzi ↔ D. Mota
Monza
🔄
73'
T. Marras ↔ C. Falletti
Mantova
🔄
73'
F. Ruocco ↔ F. Paoletti
Mantova
🔄
74'
A. Petagna ↔ A. Alvarez
Monza
78'
L. Lucchesi
Monza
🔄
80'
R. Kouda ↔ N. Buso
Mantova
🔄
80'
L. Mancuso ↔ D. Wieser
Mantova
🟨
88'
Flavio Paoletti
Mantova
88'
D. Mota · Assist: Hernani
Monza
90'
F. Benaissa-Yahia · Assist: S. Trimboli
Mantova

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 46.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 38.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
46.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
38.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mantova Win 34%
Draw 8.4%
Monza Win 57.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mantova0.99
Monza1.51
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mantova Mantova
WWDLW
42 GF / 54 GA
Monza Monza
WLDWL
57 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.54
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
0.76
18
BTTS Yes
17
19
Over 2.5
16
4.62
Shots on Goal
4.57

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mantova Mantova 37 matches
Monza Monza 37 matches
Mantova Statistic Monza
12 Wins 22
7 Draws 9
18 Losses 6
42 Goals For 57
54 Goals Against 28
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.54
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 0.76
18 BTTS Yes 17
26 Over 1.5 25
19 Over 2.5 16
9 Over 3.5 6
9 Clean Sheets 16
12 Failed To Score 6
4.62 Shots On Goal 4.57
13.78 Total Shots 14.03
4.81 Corners 5.51
57.2% Ball Possession 53.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Monza's more proactive style and Mantova's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Monza. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Monza carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 75 points while Mantova sit 11 on 43, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Mantova Analysis

Mantova sit 11 with 43 points after 36 league matches. The record of 12 wins, 7 draws, and 17 defeats, together with a 42:50 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through F. Ruocco (7 goals), L. Mancuso (7 goals), T. Marras (7 goals), with creative support from Simone Trimboli (5 assists), Nicolò Radaelli (4 assists), Federico Artioli (2 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Monza Analysis

Monza approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 75 points after 36 outings. They have recorded 22 wins, 9 draws, and 5 losses, with a 57:27 goal return and good form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on A. Petagna (8 goals), Hernani (5 goals), Matteo Pessina (5 goals), with creative support from P. Azzi (6 assists), A. Izzo (4 assists), Patrick Ciurria (3 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their record of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Mantova won 1 times, Monza won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:3 from Mantova's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.6%)
Predicted formations: Mantova 3-4-2-1 / Monza 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Mantova wins 1, draws 0, Monza wins 1
Stats
Mantova Mantova
Monza Monza
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
10
Shots off Goal
9
Shots off Goal
9
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
4
0 Corner Kicks 7
18 Fouls 11
4 Offsides 1
44% Ball Possession 56%
18 Total Shots 23
7 Shots on Goal 10
9 Shots off Goal 9
2 Blocked Shots 4
9 Shots insidebox 13
9 Shots outsidebox 10
6 Goalkeeper Saves 4
361 Total passes 449
281 Passes accurate 365
1.85 expected_goals 2.14
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Mantova
Formation
Monza
F. Bardi
F. Bardi
A. Dembele
A. Dembele
S. Cella
S. Cella
A. Castellini
A. Castellini
T. Maggioni
T. Maggioni
S. Trimboli
🎯
S. Trimboli
R. Kouda
R. Kouda
F. Benaissa-Yahia
F. Benaissa-Yahia
T. Marras
🎯
T. Marras
F. Ruocco
F. Ruocco
L. Mancuso
L. Mancuso
D. Thiam
D. Thiam
L. Ravanelli
L. Ravanelli
F. Delli Carri
F. Delli Carri
L. Lucchesi
L. Lucchesi
S. Birindelli
S. Birindelli
P. Obiang
P. Obiang
M. Pessina
M. Pessina
P. Azzi
P. Azzi
A. Colpani
A. Colpani
P. Cutrone
P. Cutrone
A. Petagna
A. Petagna
Mantova 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
24
F. Bardi
G
3
A. Dembele
🟨 11'
D
29
S. Cella
🟨 59'
D
27
A. Castellini
D
96
T. Maggioni
M
21
S. Trimboli
🎯 23' 🎯 90'
M
80
R. Kouda
⚽ 23' ↓ 80'
M
50
F. Benaissa-Yahia
⚽ 90'
M
23
T. Marras
🎯 35' ↓ 73'
F
19
F. Ruocco
↓ 73'
F
9
L. Mancuso
⚽ 35' ↓ 80'
F
Substitutes
22
L. Andrenacci
G
34
A. Vukovic
G
18
C. Falletti
↑ 73'
M
77
N. Buso
↑ 80'
F
15
T. Goncalves
D
98
F. Zuccon
M
10
D. Wieser
↑ 80'
M
36
F. Paoletti
↑ 73' 🟨 88'
M
28
M. Caprini
F
33
C. Marai
D
Monza 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
20
D. Thiam
G
13
L. Ravanelli
D
15
F. Delli Carri
↓ 56'
D
3
L. Lucchesi
⚽ 78'
D
19
S. Birindelli
M
14
P. Obiang
↓ 56'
M
32
M. Pessina
M
7
P. Azzi
↓ 65'
M
28
A. Colpani
↓ 56'
F
10
P. Cutrone
F
37
A. Petagna
↓ 74' 🟨 28'
F
Substitutes
1
S. Pizzignacco
G
30
G. Caso
↑ 56'
M
44
A. Carboni
D
25
A. Alvarez
↑ 74'
F
21
L. Colombo
M
8
Hernani
🎯 88' ↑ 56' 🟨 57'
M
17
K. Balde
F
47
D. Mota
⚽ 88' ↑ 65'
F
6
V. Antov
D
2
A. Brorsson
D
24
A. Bakoune
↑ 56'
D
27
S. Capolupo
Last matches: Mantova
09.08.26
Fri
Mantova
Athletic Carpi
0
1
L
06.08.26
Fri
Mantova
Legnago Salus
3
1
W
30.07.26
Fri
Mantova
Alcione
6
2
W
26.07.26
Fri
Mantova
Ambrosiana
7
0
W
08.05.26
Ser
Mantova
Frosinone
0
5
L
25.04.26
Ser
Mantova
Sudtirol
3
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Mantova
Avellino
0
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Mantova
Spezia
2
0
W
06.04.26
Ser
Mantova
Virtus Entella
1
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Mantova
Modena
1
2
L
17.03.26
Ser
Mantova
Cesena
3
0
W
14.03.26
Ser
Mantova
Empoli
2
2
D
08.03.26
Ser
Mantova
Juve Stabia
2
0
W
04.03.26
Ser
Mantova
Palermo
1
2
L
01.03.26
Ser
Mantova
Carrarese
1
1
D
21.02.26
Ser
Mantova
Sampdoria
2
1
W
14.02.26
Ser
Mantova
Catanzaro
0
2
L
10.02.26
Ser
Mantova
Reggiana
0
1
L
07.02.26
Ser
Mantova
Bari
2
1
W
31.01.26
Ser
Mantova
Pescara
2
2
D
Last matches: Monza
07.08.26
Fri
Monza
Padova
3
3
D
30.07.26
Fri
Monza
Aris Thessalonikis
1
3
L
24.07.26
Fri
Monza
Galatasaray
2
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Monza
PRO Vercelli
4
3
W
29.05.26
Ser
Monza
Catanzaro
0
2
L
24.05.26
Ser
Monza
Catanzaro
2
0
W
19.05.26
Ser
Monza
Juve Stabia
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Monza
Juve Stabia
2
2
D
08.05.26
Ser
Monza
Empoli
2
2
D
24.04.26
Ser
Monza
Modena
1
0
W
17.04.26
Ser
Monza
Sampdoria
3
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Monza
Bari
2
0
W
06.04.26
Ser
Monza
Catanzaro
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Monza
Venezia
1
1
D
17.03.26
Ser
Monza
Reggiana
0
0
D
14.03.26
Ser
Monza
Palermo
3
0
W
07.03.26
Ser
Monza
Spezia
2
4
L
03.03.26
Ser
Monza
Cesena
3
1
W
27.02.26
Ser
Monza
Virtus Entella
2
0
W
21.02.26
Ser
Monza
Carrarese
1
0
W
H2H: Mantova vs Monza
01.05.26
H2H
Mantova
Monza
3
2
W
23.08.25
H2H
Monza
Mantova
1
0
L
Last matches: Mantova
09.08.26
Fri
Mantova
Athletic Carpi
0
1
L
30.07.26
Fri
Mantova
Alcione
6
2
W
26.07.26
Fri
Mantova
Ambrosiana
7
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Mantova
Avellino
0
2
L
06.04.26
Ser
Mantova
Virtus Entella
1
0
W
17.03.26
Ser
Mantova
Cesena
3
0
W
08.03.26
Ser
Mantova
Juve Stabia
2
0
W
01.03.26
Ser
Mantova
Carrarese
1
1
D
21.02.26
Ser
Mantova
Sampdoria
2
1
W
07.02.26
Ser
Mantova
Bari
2
1
W
24.01.26
Ser
Mantova
Venezia
2
5
L
11.01.26
Ser
Mantova
Palermo
1
1
D
21.12.25
Ser
Mantova
Empoli
0
1
L
08.12.25
Ser
Mantova
Reggiana
0
1
L
23.11.25
Ser
Mantova
Spezia
4
1
W
08.11.25
Ser
Mantova
Padova
1
0
W
29.10.25
Ser
Mantova
Catanzaro
1
3
L
18.10.25
Ser
Mantova
Sudtirol
1
1
D
27.09.25
Ser
Mantova
Frosinone
1
5
L
20.09.25
Ser
Mantova
Modena
1
3
L
H2H at home: Mantova
01.05.26
H2H
Mantova
Monza
3
2
W
Last matches: Monza
24.07.26
Fri
Monza
Galatasaray
2
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Monza
Catanzaro
2
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Monza
Juve Stabia
2
2
D
17.04.26
Ser
Monza
Sampdoria
3
0
W
06.04.26
Ser
Monza
Catanzaro
1
1
D
17.03.26
Ser
Monza
Reggiana
0
0
D
07.03.26
Ser
Monza
Spezia
2
4
L
03.03.26
Ser
Monza
Cesena
3
1
W
21.02.26
Ser
Monza
Carrarese
1
0
W
11.02.26
Ser
Monza
Sudtirol
0
0
D
01.02.26
Ser
Monza
Padova
2
1
W
10.01.26
Ser
Monza
Virtus Entella
0
1
L
26.12.25
Ser
Monza
Modena
2
1
W
13.12.25
Ser
Monza
Venezia
0
2
L
30.11.25
Ser
Monza
Juve Stabia
2
2
D
09.11.25
Ser
Monza
Pescara
2
0
W
28.10.25
Ser
Monza
Palermo
3
0
W
18.10.25
Ser
Monza
Frosinone
1
0
W
01.10.25
Ser
Monza
Empoli
1
1
D
12.09.25
Ser
Monza
Avellino
1
2
L
H2H away: Monza
01.05.26
H2H
Mantova
Monza
3
2
L

Standings

Serie B: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 10 4 77:31 46 82
W D W W D
2 38 23 12 3 76:34 42 81
W W W W D
3
Monza Away
38 22 10 6 61:32 29 76
D L W W W
4 38 20 12 6 61:33 28 72
L W D W D
5 38 15 14 9 62:51 11 59
L L W D D
6 38 15 10 13 49:36 13 55
L W L L D
7 38 11 18 9 44:45 -1 51
D L D D W
8 38 13 10 15 43:55 -12 49
W L W W D
9 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
L W W L W
10 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
W W L W W
11 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
L D D L L
12 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
L D L D L
13 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
L W D L W
14 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
W L W D D
15 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
D W L D L
16 38 8 17 13 38:48 -10 41
D L L L D
17 38 10 10 18 38:60 -22 40
W W L L L
18 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
W L D L W
19 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
D D L W L
20 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
D L D D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation