ITALY SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio Danilo Martelli
Referee: A. Calzavara
Mantova
Match Timeline
Avellino
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
A. Fontanarosa ↔ F. Missori
Avellino
🔄
46'
T. Biasci ↔ P. Enrici
Avellino
🔄
57'
F. Ruocco ↔ N. Buso
Mantova
🔄
57'
T. Maggioni ↔ N. Radaelli
Mantova
63'
F. Missori · Assist: L. Palmiero
Avellino
🔄
68'
C. Patierno ↔ A. Favilli
Avellino
🔄
75'
R. Russo ↔ G. Tutino
Avellino
🔄
76'
A. Castellini ↔ T. Marras
Mantova
🔄
76'
M. Palumbo ↔ M. Besaggio
Avellino
🔄
81'
D. Wieser ↔ C. Falletti
Mantova
86'
A. Favilli · Assist: A. Izzo
Avellino
🟨
90+3'
Ali Dembélé
Mantova

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.2%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Probability Distribution
Mantova Win 77.2%
Draw 6.7%
Avellino Win 16.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mantova1.29
Avellino1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mantova Mantova
WWDLW
39 GF / 52 GA
Avellino Avellino
WLDWL
38 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.11
Average Goals Scored
1.09
1.49
Average Goals Conceded
1.57
18
BTTS Yes
19
18
Over 2.5
17
4.66
Shots on Goal
3.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mantova Mantova 35 matches
Avellino Avellino 35 matches
Mantova Statistic Avellino
11 Wins 10
7 Draws 10
17 Losses 15
39 Goals For 38
52 Goals Against 55
1.11 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1.49 Avg Goals Conceded 1.57
18 BTTS Yes 19
24 Over 1.5 27
18 Over 2.5 17
9 Over 3.5 9
8 Clean Sheets 5
11 Failed To Score 13
4.66 Shots On Goal 3.2
13.91 Total Shots 9.46
4.74 Corners 4.11
57% Ball Possession 48.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Avellino. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mantova expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Avellino in 4-3-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Avellino having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Mantova Analysis

Mantova sit 11 with 40 points after 34 league matches. Their overall return of 11 wins, 7 draws, and 16 losses with goals at 39:48 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by F. Ruocco (7 goals), L. Mancuso (7 goals), D. Bragantini (6 goals), with creative support from Simone Trimboli (5 assists), Nicolò Radaelli (4 assists), Federico Artioli (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Avellino Analysis

From their first 34 matches, Avellino have collected 40 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. Their overall return of 10 wins, 10 draws, and 14 losses with goals at 38:54 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Tommaso Biasci (12 goals), Lorenco Šimić (4 goals), R. Russo (4 goals), with creative support from D. Sounas (4 assists), Tommaso Biasci (3 assists), R. Russo (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Mantova won 0 times, Avellino won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:2 from Mantova's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.3%)
Predicted formations: Mantova 3-4-2-1 / Avellino 4-3-1-2
H2H summary: Mantova wins 0, draws 1, Avellino wins 1
Stats
Mantova Mantova
Avellino Avellino
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
1
10 Corner Kicks 2
18 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 3
64% Ball Possession 36%
12 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Goal 3
3 Shots off Goal 2
6 Blocked Shots 1
9 Shots insidebox 3
3 Shots outsidebox 3
1 Goalkeeper Saves 3
563 Total passes 318
465 Passes accurate 226
1.40 expected_goals 0.36
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Mantova
Formation
Avellino
F. Bardi
F. Bardi
A. Dembele
A. Dembele
S. Cella
S. Cella
A. Castellini
A. Castellini
T. Maggioni
T. Maggioni
R. Kouda
R. Kouda
D. Wieser
D. Wieser
F. Benaissa-Yahia
F. Benaissa-Yahia
D. Bragantini
D. Bragantini
F. Ruocco
F. Ruocco
L. Mancuso
L. Mancuso
A. Iannarilli
A. Iannarilli
T. Cancellotti
T. Cancellotti
L. Simic
L. Simic
A. Izzo
🎯
A. Izzo
A. Fontanarosa
A. Fontanarosa
L. Palmiero
🎯
L. Palmiero
M. Palumbo
M. Palumbo
D. Sounas
D. Sounas
T. Biasci
T. Biasci
C. Patierno
C. Patierno
R. Russo
R. Russo
Mantova 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
24
F. Bardi
G
3
A. Dembele
🟨 90+3'
D
29
S. Cella
D
27
A. Castellini
↓ 76'
D
96
T. Maggioni
↓ 57'
M
80
R. Kouda
M
10
D. Wieser
↓ 81'
M
50
F. Benaissa-Yahia
M
30
D. Bragantini
F
19
F. Ruocco
↓ 57'
F
9
L. Mancuso
F
Substitutes
22
L. Andrenacci
G
34
A. Vukovic
G
18
C. Falletti
↑ 81'
M
77
N. Buso
↑ 57'
F
98
F. Zuccon
M
17
N. Radaelli
↑ 57'
D
23
T. Marras
↑ 76'
F
5
K. Chrysopoulos
D
36
F. Paoletti
M
28
M. Caprini
F
33
C. Marai
D
Avellino 4-3-1-2
Starting XI
1
A. Iannarilli
G
29
T. Cancellotti
D
44
L. Simic
D
4
A. Izzo
🎯 86'
D
63
A. Fontanarosa
↓ 46'
D
6
L. Palmiero
🎯 63'
M
20
M. Palumbo
↓ 76'
M
24
D. Sounas
M
14
T. Biasci
↓ 46'
M
9
C. Patierno
↓ 68'
F
10
R. Russo
↓ 75'
F
Substitutes
30
G. Daffara
G
99
A. Favilli
⚽ 86' ↑ 68'
F
8
L. Pandolfi
F
39
M. Besaggio
↑ 76'
M
2
F. Missori
⚽ 63' ↑ 46'
D
27
A. Le Borgne
M
21
M. Armellino
M
7
G. Tutino
↑ 75'
F
94
R. Insigne
F
3
M. Sala
D
56
P. Enrici
↑ 46'
D
16
J. Kumi
M
Last matches: Mantova
09.08.26
Fri
Mantova
Athletic Carpi
0
1
L
06.08.26
Fri
Mantova
Legnago Salus
3
1
W
30.07.26
Fri
Mantova
Alcione
6
2
W
26.07.26
Fri
Mantova
Ambrosiana
7
0
W
08.05.26
Ser
Mantova
Frosinone
0
5
L
01.05.26
Ser
Mantova
Monza
3
2
W
25.04.26
Ser
Mantova
Sudtirol
3
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Mantova
Spezia
2
0
W
06.04.26
Ser
Mantova
Virtus Entella
1
0
W
21.03.26
Ser
Mantova
Modena
1
2
L
17.03.26
Ser
Mantova
Cesena
3
0
W
14.03.26
Ser
Mantova
Empoli
2
2
D
08.03.26
Ser
Mantova
Juve Stabia
2
0
W
04.03.26
Ser
Mantova
Palermo
1
2
L
01.03.26
Ser
Mantova
Carrarese
1
1
D
21.02.26
Ser
Mantova
Sampdoria
2
1
W
14.02.26
Ser
Mantova
Catanzaro
0
2
L
10.02.26
Ser
Mantova
Reggiana
0
1
L
07.02.26
Ser
Mantova
Bari
2
1
W
31.01.26
Ser
Mantova
Pescara
2
2
D
Last matches: Avellino
08.08.26
Fri
Avellino
Torino
1
1
D
01.08.26
Fri
Avellino
Lazio
3
6
L
26.07.26
Fri
Avellino
Sambenedettese
5
0
W
22.07.26
Fri
Avellino
Scafatese
3
1
W
12.05.26
Ser
Avellino
Catanzaro
0
3
L
08.05.26
Ser
Avellino
Modena
1
0
W
01.05.26
Ser
Avellino
Empoli
0
1
L
24.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Bari
2
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Catanzaro
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Palermo
0
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Sampdoria
1
2
L
18.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Sudtirol
3
2
W
15.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Virtus Entella
2
1
W
07.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Padova
1
0
W
03.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Venezia
0
4
L
28.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Juve Stabia
0
0
D
22.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Reggiana
1
1
D
15.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Pescara
0
1
L
11.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Frosinone
1
3
L
08.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Monza
1
2
L
H2H: Mantova vs Avellino
18.04.26
H2H
Mantova
Avellino
0
2
L
04.10.25
H2H
Avellino
Mantova
0
0
D
Last matches: Mantova
09.08.26
Fri
Mantova
Athletic Carpi
0
1
L
30.07.26
Fri
Mantova
Alcione
6
2
W
26.07.26
Fri
Mantova
Ambrosiana
7
0
W
01.05.26
Ser
Mantova
Monza
3
2
W
06.04.26
Ser
Mantova
Virtus Entella
1
0
W
17.03.26
Ser
Mantova
Cesena
3
0
W
08.03.26
Ser
Mantova
Juve Stabia
2
0
W
01.03.26
Ser
Mantova
Carrarese
1
1
D
21.02.26
Ser
Mantova
Sampdoria
2
1
W
07.02.26
Ser
Mantova
Bari
2
1
W
24.01.26
Ser
Mantova
Venezia
2
5
L
11.01.26
Ser
Mantova
Palermo
1
1
D
21.12.25
Ser
Mantova
Empoli
0
1
L
08.12.25
Ser
Mantova
Reggiana
0
1
L
23.11.25
Ser
Mantova
Spezia
4
1
W
08.11.25
Ser
Mantova
Padova
1
0
W
29.10.25
Ser
Mantova
Catanzaro
1
3
L
18.10.25
Ser
Mantova
Sudtirol
1
1
D
27.09.25
Ser
Mantova
Frosinone
1
5
L
20.09.25
Ser
Mantova
Modena
1
3
L
H2H at home: Mantova
18.04.26
H2H
Mantova
Avellino
0
2
L
Last matches: Avellino
01.08.26
Fri
Avellino
Lazio
3
6
L
26.07.26
Fri
Avellino
Sambenedettese
5
0
W
12.05.26
Ser
Avellino
Catanzaro
0
3
L
01.05.26
Ser
Avellino
Empoli
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
Avellino
Palermo
0
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Sampdoria
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Virtus Entella
2
1
W
03.03.26
Ser
Avellino
Venezia
0
4
L
22.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Reggiana
1
1
D
08.02.26
Ser
Avellino
Monza
1
2
L
24.01.26
Ser
Avellino
Spezia
0
1
L
27.12.25
Ser
Avellino
Bari
1
1
D
13.12.25
Ser
Avellino
Catanzaro
0
1
L
29.11.25
Ser
Avellino
Sudtirol
1
0
W
09.11.25
Ser
Avellino
Cesena
0
3
L
28.10.25
Ser
Avellino
Pescara
1
1
D
18.10.25
Ser
Avellino
Juve Stabia
0
2
L
30.09.25
Ser
Avellino
Padova
2
2
D
21.09.25
Ser
Avellino
Carrarese
4
3
W
31.08.25
Ser
Avellino
Modena
1
1
D
H2H away: Avellino
18.04.26
H2H
Mantova
Avellino
0
2
W

Standings

Serie B: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 10 4 77:31 46 82
W D W W D
2 38 23 12 3 76:34 42 81
W W W W D
3 38 22 10 6 61:32 29 76
D L W W W
4 38 20 12 6 61:33 28 72
L W D W D
5 38 15 14 9 62:51 11 59
L L W D D
6 38 15 10 13 49:36 13 55
L W L L D
7 38 11 18 9 44:45 -1 51
D L D D W
8 38 13 10 15 43:55 -12 49
W L W W D
9 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
L W W L W
10 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
W W L W W
11 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
L D D L L
12 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
L D L D L
13 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
L W D L W
14 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
W L W D D
15 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
D W L D L
16 38 8 17 13 38:48 -10 41
D L L L D
17 38 10 10 18 38:60 -22 40
W W L L L
18 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
W L D L W
19 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
D D L W L
20 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
D L D D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation