ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Jocay
Referee: Gabriel Ismael Gonzalez Cordero, Ecuador
Manta FC
Match Timeline
Orense SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
40'
José Angulo
Manta FC
🟨
40'
Sixto Mina
Orense SC
🟨
43'
Jefferson Troya
Manta FC
🔄
68'
E. S. Zambrano Pesantez ↔ B. Vinan
Orense SC
🔄
72'
J. Verges ↔ R. Burbano
Manta FC
🔄
72'
J. Jimenez ↔ J. Chala
Manta FC
🔄
81'
B. Ramirez ↔ M. Valencia
Manta FC
🔄
82'
J. Angulo ↔ M. Hurtado
Manta FC
🔄
85'
S. Mina ↔ S. Callegari
Orense SC
🔄
85'
S. Vasquez ↔ D. Armas
Orense SC
🟨
88'
Renny Jaramillo
Orense SC
🔄
89'
J. Nazareno ↔ J. Rialpe
Manta FC
🔄
89'
A. Mena ↔ G. Rostagno
Orense SC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.2%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
73.2%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Manta FC Win 30.3%
Draw 14.5%
Orense SC Win 55.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Manta FC0.81
Orense SC1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Manta FC Manta FC
WWDLW
7 GF / 23 GA
Orense SC Orense SC
WLDWL
22 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
0.41
Average Goals Scored
1.29
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.41
4
BTTS Yes
12
4
Over 2.5
10
2.76
Shots on Goal
4.06

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Manta FC Manta FC 17 matches
Orense SC Orense SC 17 matches
Manta FC Statistic Orense SC
3 Wins 6
3 Draws 4
11 Losses 7
7 Goals For 22
23 Goals Against 24
0.41 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.41
4 BTTS Yes 12
8 Over 1.5 15
4 Over 2.5 10
2 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 3
11 Failed To Score 3
2.76 Shots On Goal 4.06
9.47 Total Shots 9.82
4.71 Corners 3.12
46.3% Ball Possession 45.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Manta FC have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Manta FC expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Orense SC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Orense SC having the stronger overall control. Orense SC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 22 points while Manta FC sit 16 on 12, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Orense SC.

Manta FC Analysis

Manta FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 12 points from 17 matches. The overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 11 defeats with a 7:23 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. Blanco (2 goals), Octavio Moscarelli (1 goals), J. Jiménez (1 goals), with creative support from Braian Ramírez (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Orense SC Analysis

Orense SC are currently 7 in the standings with 22 points from 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, while the 21:22 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Agustin Herrera (5 goals), Erick Zambrano (2 goals), Sergio Vásquez (2 goals), with creative support from Erick Zambrano (3 assists), Valentín Burgoa (2 assists), Agustin Herrera (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Manta FC won 4 times, Orense SC won 3 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:12 from Manta FC's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 1.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.5%)
Predicted formations: Manta FC 4-4-2 / Orense SC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Manta FC wins 4, draws 8, Orense SC wins 3

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 2 3 66:28 38 68
D W W W W
2 27 14 5 8 31:26 5 47
W W L W W
3 27 13 6 8 35:27 8 45
W L D W W
4 27 12 8 7 47:25 22 44
D W D L W
5 27 12 5 10 27:22 5 41
L W W L W
6 27 10 9 8 28:22 6 39
L W D L D
7 27 10 7 10 29:30 -1 37
L W D W W
8 27 9 9 9 33:34 -1 36
W D D W W
9 27 9 9 9 27:30 -3 36
W W D D L
10 27 9 8 10 29:30 -1 35
L L W L D
11 27 9 8 10 23:32 -9 32
W L W D L
12 27 9 5 13 23:35 -12 32
L D L L L
13 27 8 6 13 31:41 -10 30
L L W D L
14 27 9 2 16 26:38 -12 29
W L L L L
15 27 6 6 15 17:29 -12 24
L L L D L
16 27 5 5 17 14:37 -23 20
W L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs