ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Jocay
Referee: Gabriel Ismael Gonzalez Cordero, Ecuador
Manta FC
Match Timeline
Orense SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
40'
José Angulo
Manta FC
🟨
40'
Sixto Mina
Orense SC
🟨
43'
Jefferson Troya
Manta FC
🔄
68'
Erick Zambrano ↔ Bryan Viñán
Orense SC
🔄
72'
Joaquín Vergés ↔ Robert Burbano
Manta FC
🔄
72'
Juan Jimenez ↔ Josué Chalá
Manta FC
🔄
81'
Braian Ramírez ↔ Maikel Valencia
Manta FC
🔄
82'
José Angulo ↔ Miguel Hurtado
Manta FC
🔄
85'
Sergio Vásquez ↔ Diego Armas
Orense SC
🔄
85'
Sixto Mina ↔ Stéfano Callegari
Orense SC
🟨
88'
Renny Jaramillo
Orense SC
🔄
89'
Juan Nazareno ↔ Alejandro Rialpe
Manta FC
🔄
89'
Ángel Mena ↔ Gonzalo Martin Rostagno
Orense SC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.2%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
73.2%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Manta FC Win 30.3%
Draw 14.5%
Orense SC Win 55.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Manta FC0.81
Orense SC1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Manta FC Manta FC
WWDLW
7 GF / 23 GA
Orense SC Orense SC
WLDWL
22 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
0.41
Average Goals Scored
1.29
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.41
4
BTTS Yes
12
4
Over 2.5
10
2.76
Shots on Goal
4.06

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Manta FC Manta FC 17 matches
Orense SC Orense SC 17 matches
Manta FC Statistic Orense SC
3 Wins 6
3 Draws 4
11 Losses 7
7 Goals For 22
23 Goals Against 24
0.41 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.41
4 BTTS Yes 12
8 Over 1.5 15
4 Over 2.5 10
2 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 3
11 Failed To Score 3
2.76 Shots On Goal 4.06
9.47 Total Shots 9.82
4.71 Corners 3.12
46.3% Ball Possession 45.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Manta FC have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Manta FC expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Orense SC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Orense SC having the stronger overall control. Orense SC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 22 points while Manta FC sit 16 on 12, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Orense SC.

Manta FC Analysis

Manta FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 12 points from 17 matches. The overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 11 defeats with a 7:23 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. Blanco (2 goals), Octavio Moscarelli (1 goals), J. Jiménez (1 goals), with creative support from Braian Ramírez (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Orense SC Analysis

Orense SC are currently 7 in the standings with 22 points from 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, while the 21:22 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Agustin Herrera (5 goals), Erick Zambrano (2 goals), Sergio Vásquez (2 goals), with creative support from Erick Zambrano (3 assists), Valentín Burgoa (2 assists), Agustin Herrera (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Manta FC won 4 times, Orense SC won 3 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:12 from Manta FC's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 1.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.5%)
Predicted formations: Manta FC 4-4-2 / Orense SC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Manta FC wins 4, draws 8, Orense SC wins 3
Stats
Manta FC Manta FC
Orense SC Orense SC
Shots on Goal
1
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
2
4 Corner Kicks 4
21 Fouls 18
4 Offsides 1
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Goal 1
6 Shots off Goal 6
2 Blocked Shots 2
5 Shots insidebox 3
4 Shots outsidebox 6
1 Goalkeeper Saves 1
355 Total passes 431
284 Passes accurate 348
1.46 expected_goals 1.28
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Manta FC
Formation
Orense SC
Walter Chávez
Walter Chávez
Jefferson Troya
Jefferson Troya
Edison Alexander Medina Caicedo
Edison Alexander Medina Caicedo
Octavio Moscarelli
Octavio Moscarelli
Glendys Mina
Glendys Mina
Juan Nazareno
Juan Nazareno
Joaquín Vergés
Joaquín Vergés
Braian Ramírez
Braian Ramírez
Juan Jimenez
Juan Jimenez
Jean Carlos Blanco
Jean Carlos Blanco
José Angulo
José Angulo
Jordy Ortiz
Jordy Ortiz
Pedro Velasco
Pedro Velasco
Alan Lorenzo
Alan Lorenzo
Sixto Mina
Sixto Mina
Beder Caicedo
Beder Caicedo
Erick Zambrano
Erick Zambrano
Sergio Vásquez
Sergio Vásquez
Renny Jaramillo
Renny Jaramillo
Agustin Herrera
Agustin Herrera
Ángel Mena
Ángel Mena
Miguel Parrales
Miguel Parrales
Manta FC 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
Walter Chávez
G
27
Jefferson Troya
🟨 43'
D
23
Edison Alexander Medina Caicedo
D
24
Octavio Moscarelli
D
31
Glendys Mina
D
70
Juan Nazareno
↓ 89'
M
55
Joaquín Vergés
↓ 72'
M
5
Braian Ramírez
↓ 81'
M
6
Juan Jimenez
↓ 72'
M
9
Jean Carlos Blanco
F
17
José Angulo
↓ 82' 🟨 40'
F
Substitutes
20
Josué Chalá
↑ 72'
M
10
Robert Burbano
↑ 72'
M
8
Maikel Valencia
↑ 81'
F
29
Miguel Hurtado
↑ 82'
M
52
Alejandro Rialpe
↑ 89'
M
99
Jhon Pico
G
12
Felix Zambrano
G
4
Jefferson Nazareno
D
7
Danny Cabezas
M
33
Anderson Castillo
F
Orense SC 4-4-2
Starting XI
22
Jordy Ortiz
G
31
Pedro Velasco
D
5
Alan Lorenzo
D
3
Sixto Mina
↓ 85' 🟨 40'
D
15
Beder Caicedo
D
54
Erick Zambrano
↓ 68'
M
7
Sergio Vásquez
↓ 85'
M
25
Renny Jaramillo
🟨 88'
M
11
Agustin Herrera
M
13
Ángel Mena
↓ 89'
F
10
Miguel Parrales
F
Substitutes
77
Bryan Viñán
↑ 68'
D
6
Stéfano Callegari
↑ 85'
D
8
Diego Armas
↑ 85'
M
21
Gonzalo Martin Rostagno
↑ 89'
M
12
Rolando Silva
G
2
Bryan Quinonez
D
4
Steven Quiñónez
D
59
Jostin Hurtado
↑ 82'
M
14
Erick Plúas
M
57
Sleyder Mairongo
M
19
Michael Bermúdez
F
53
Luis Garces
F
Last matches: Manta FC
01.08.26
Lig
Manta FC
Mushuc Runa SC
1
2
L
26.07.26
Lig
Manta FC
Tecnico Universitario
0
1
L
23.07.26
Lig
Manta FC
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
19.07.26
Lig
Manta FC
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
15.07.26
Lig
Manta FC
Delfin SC
0
1
L
04.07.26
Lig
Manta FC
Independiente del Valle
0
4
L
30.05.26
Lig
Manta FC
Libertad
2
1
W
26.05.26
Lig
Manta FC
Aucas
1
3
L
17.05.26
Lig
Manta FC
Emelec
0
0
D
10.05.26
Lig
Manta FC
Macara
0
1
L
03.05.26
Lig
Manta FC
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
27.04.26
Lig
Manta FC
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
22.04.26
Lig
Manta FC
Leones del Norte
0
3
L
19.04.26
Lig
Manta FC
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
11.04.26
Lig
Manta FC
Mushuc Runa SC
0
1
L
05.04.26
Lig
Manta FC
Tecnico Universitario
0
2
L
22.03.26
Lig
Manta FC
LDU de Quito
0
1
L
18.03.26
Lig
Manta FC
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
14.03.26
Lig
Manta FC
Delfin SC
1
0
W
10.03.26
Lig
Manta FC
Orense SC
1
1
D
Last matches: Orense SC
09.08.26
Lig
Orense SC
Delfin SC
1
1
D
01.08.26
Lig
Orense SC
Libertad
0
3
L
26.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
2
3
L
23.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Aucas
2
1
W
20.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SC
1
2
L
17.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Emelec
0
2
L
07.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
01.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
LDU de Quito
0
3
L
23.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Universidad Catolica
1
2
L
19.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
09.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Leones del Norte
2
0
W
03.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Macara
2
1
W
26.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
22.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Deportivo Cuenca
3
1
W
19.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Delfin SC
0
0
D
12.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Libertad
2
1
W
04.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
0
2
L
24.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Aucas
2
3
L
19.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SC
3
2
W
15.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Emelec
1
2
L
H2H: Manta FC vs Orense SC
11.07.26
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
0
0
D
10.03.26
H2H
Orense SC
Manta FC
1
1
D
24.06.25
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
0
0
D
23.02.25
H2H
Orense SC
Manta FC
2
1
L
28.08.21
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
0
0
D
04.04.21
H2H
Orense SC
Manta FC
0
1
W
08.12.19
H2H
Orense SC
Manta FC
2
1
L
03.12.19
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
2
2
D
30.10.19
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
0
0
D
10.08.19
H2H
Orense SC
Manta FC
0
1
W
26.05.19
H2H
Orense SC
Manta FC
1
1
D
20.04.19
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
0
1
L
04.11.18
H2H
Orense SC
Manta FC
1
1
D
18.08.18
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
2
1
W
18.05.18
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
3
1
W
Last matches: Manta FC
01.08.26
Lig
Manta FC
Mushuc Runa SC
1
2
L
23.07.26
Lig
Manta FC
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
15.07.26
Lig
Manta FC
Delfin SC
0
1
L
30.05.26
Lig
Manta FC
Libertad
2
1
W
17.05.26
Lig
Manta FC
Emelec
0
0
D
10.05.26
Lig
Manta FC
Macara
0
1
L
27.04.26
Lig
Manta FC
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
19.04.26
Lig
Manta FC
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
05.04.26
Lig
Manta FC
Tecnico Universitario
0
2
L
18.03.26
Lig
Manta FC
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
03.03.26
Lig
Manta FC
Independiente del Valle
0
2
L
H2H at home: Manta FC
11.07.26
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
0
0
D
24.06.25
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
0
0
D
28.08.21
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
0
0
D
03.12.19
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
2
2
D
30.10.19
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
0
0
D
20.04.19
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
0
1
L
18.08.18
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
2
1
W
18.05.18
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
3
1
W
Last matches: Orense SC
09.08.26
Lig
Orense SC
Delfin SC
1
1
D
01.08.26
Lig
Orense SC
Libertad
0
3
L
20.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
Mushuc Runa SC
1
2
L
01.07.26
Lig
Orense SC
LDU de Quito
0
3
L
19.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
03.05.26
Lig
Orense SC
Macara
2
1
W
22.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Deportivo Cuenca
3
1
W
04.04.26
Lig
Orense SC
Independiente del Valle
0
2
L
24.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Aucas
2
3
L
15.03.26
Lig
Orense SC
Emelec
1
2
L
28.02.26
Lig
Orense SC
Tecnico Universitario
1
1
D
H2H away: Orense SC
11.07.26
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
0
0
D
24.06.25
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
0
0
D
28.08.21
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
0
0
D
03.12.19
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
2
2
D
30.10.19
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
0
0
D
20.04.19
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
0
1
W
18.08.18
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
2
1
L
18.05.18
H2H
Manta FC
Orense SC
3
1
L

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 20 1 3 58:22 36 61
W W W W W
2 24 12 5 7 32:24 8 41
W W W W L
3 24 12 5 7 29:25 4 41
W W L L W
4 23 11 6 6 38:19 19 39
W D W W W
5 24 9 8 7 25:20 5 35
L D L L W
6 24 10 5 9 23:20 3 35
L W W D L
7 24 8 8 8 24:25 -1 32
L D W D W
8 23 9 4 10 21:28 -7 31
L W L L D
9 23 8 6 9 24:26 -2 30
W W W L W
10 24 7 8 9 20:25 -5 29
D L D D W
11 23 7 7 9 29:34 -5 28
W L D W L
12 24 7 6 11 28:36 -8 27
D L L W L
13 23 8 2 13 20:29 -9 26
L W L L L
14 24 7 8 9 19:28 -9 26
D L L D L
15 24 6 6 12 15:24 -9 24
D L L L W
16 23 3 5 15 9:29 -20 14
L L D L L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs