ENGLAND LEAGUE ONE
18.04.2026 14:00
One Call Stadium
Referee: E. Duckworth
Mansfield Town
Match Timeline
Luton
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
21'
J. Russell
Mansfield Town
28'
J. Russell · Assist: L. Reed
Mansfield Town
40'
K. Palmer · Assist: E. Lawrence
Luton
🔄
46'
M. Andersen ↔ J. Johnson
Luton
50'
S. Morris · Assist: K. Palmer
Luton
🔄
58'
L. Reed ↔ N. Moriah-Welsh
Mansfield Town
🔄
58'
T. Roberts ↔ R. Oates
Mansfield Town
🟨
66'
Elliott Hewitt
Mansfield Town
🟨
66'
Kal Naismith
Luton
🔄
69'
A. Al Hamadi ↔ N. Wells
Luton
🔄
79'
S. McLaughlin ↔ D. Dwyer
Mansfield Town
🔄
79'
J. Russell ↔ O. Irow
Mansfield Town
🔄
80'
E. Lawrence ↔ G. Kodua
Luton
🟨
84'
Dom Dwyer
Mansfield Town
🔄
89'
D. van den Berg ↔ D. Cole
Luton
🔄
89'
S. Morris ↔ J. Richards
Luton
🔄
90+1'
R. Hendry ↔ F. Blake-Tracy
Mansfield Town

Mansfield Town vs Luton Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 83.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
83.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.9%
-
Probability Distribution
Mansfield Town Win 36.8%
Draw 16.6%
Luton Win 46.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mansfield Town1.31
Luton1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mansfield Town Mansfield Town
WWDLW
61 GF / 52 GA
Luton Luton
WLDWL
65 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.48
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
27
BTTS Yes
24
22
Over 2.5
24
3.47
Shots on Goal
3.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 46 matches
Luton Luton 44 matches
Mansfield Town Statistic Luton
16 Wins 19
16 Draws 11
14 Losses 14
61 Goals For 65
52 Goals Against 56
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
27 BTTS Yes 24
36 Over 1.5 33
22 Over 2.5 24
8 Over 3.5 13
14 Clean Sheets 12
11 Failed To Score 9
3.47 Shots On Goal 3.86
11.29 Total Shots 12.55
4.49 Corners 5.82
44.8% Ball Possession 54.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Luton. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Luton look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mansfield Town expected to line up in 3-1-4-2 and Luton in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Luton having the stronger overall control.

Mansfield Town Analysis

Mansfield Town sit 14 with 54 points after 41 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 13 wins, 15 draws, and 13 defeats with a 50:43 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on W. Evans (8 goals), R. Oates (7 goals), L. Akins (6 goals), with creative support from Stephen McLaughlin (3 assists), R. Hendry (3 assists), N. Moriah-Welsh (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 8 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Luton Analysis

From their first 42 matches, Luton have collected 64 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 18 wins, 10 draws, and 14 losses, while the 57:50 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form and are on a winning streak. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Clark (11 goals), G. Kodua (9 goals), J. Richards (5 goals), with creative support from L. Walsh (6 assists), G. Saville (5 assists), E. Lawrence (4 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Mansfield Town won 4 times, Luton won 4 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:21 from Mansfield Town's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.4%)
Predicted formations: Mansfield Town 3-1-4-2 / Luton 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Mansfield Town wins 4, draws 7, Luton wins 4

Standings

League One: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 31 10 5 89:41 48 103
W W W D W
2 46 27 10 9 90:50 40 91
L W W W D
3 46 22 11 13 71:58 13 77
W L W L D
4 46 22 11 13 58:51 7 77
W D D D L
5 46 19 18 9 70:52 18 75
L D D W L
6 46 21 12 13 49:46 3 75
W D W D L
7
Luton Away
46 21 11 14 68:56 12 74
W W W D W
8 46 22 7 17 75:63 12 73
W W D W D
9 46 18 13 15 74:64 10 67
W L D D D
10 46 16 17 13 62:50 12 65
W D W W D
11 46 17 12 17 69:58 11 63
W L L D L
12 46 16 15 15 64:60 4 63
L D L L L
13 46 17 9 20 54:65 -11 60
W W W W L
14 46 17 9 20 50:69 -19 60
W D L W W
15 46 15 14 17 68:73 -5 59
L W L L D
16 46 14 14 18 49:58 -9 56
L L D W W
17 46 13 15 18 50:60 -10 54
D D D W D
18 46 15 8 23 64:68 -4 53
L D L D L
19 46 15 8 23 51:72 -21 53
L W L L L
20 46 14 10 22 59:71 -12 52
D L L D L
21 46 12 13 21 52:61 -9 49
L D D D W
22 46 10 12 24 36:61 -25 42
L W L L D
23 46 10 11 25 41:71 -30 41
L D L W L
24 46 9 8 29 39:74 -35 35
L L L L L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two