ENGLAND LEAGUE ONE
--.--.---- --:--
One Call Stadium
Referee: C. Breakspear
Mansfield Town
Match Timeline
Cardiff
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
R. Sweeney · Assist: N. Moriah-Welsh
Mansfield Town
23'
L. Akins · Assist: L. Reed
Mansfield Town
26'
L. Akins · Assist: W. Evans
Mansfield Town
🔄
57'
C. Willock ↔ I. Davies
Cardiff
🔄
57'
D. Turnbull ↔ A. Robertson
Cardiff
🔄
57'
J. Colwill ↔ O. Kellyman
Cardiff
61'
I. Davies · Assist: O. Tanner
Cardiff
63'
R. Oates · Assist: L. Reed
Mansfield Town
🟨
65'
Omari Kellyman
Cardiff
66'
O. Kellyman · Assist: R. Colwill
Cardiff
🔄
70'
J. Bagan ↔ N. Williams
Cardiff
🔄
72'
J. Bowery ↔ S. McLaughlin
Mansfield Town
🔄
76'
R. Oates ↔ J. Gardner
Mansfield Town
🔄
76'
N. Moriah-Welsh ↔ O. Irow
Mansfield Town
79'
O. Irow · Assist: L. Reed
Mansfield Town
🟨
82'
Regan Hendry
Mansfield Town
🔄
84'
L. Reed ↔ O. Taylor
Mansfield Town
🔄
84'
R. Hendry ↔ E. Hartmann
Mansfield Town
86'
R. Kpakio
Cardiff
🔄
88'
R. Colwill ↔ P. Moreno
Cardiff
🟨
90+2'
Oliver Irow
Mansfield Town
90'
O. Kellyman · Assist: I. Davies
Cardiff

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 57.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 63.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
57.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
63.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mansfield Town Win 28.4%
Draw 13.5%
Cardiff Win 58.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mansfield Town1.22
Cardiff1.56
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mansfield Town Mansfield Town
WWDLW
68 GF / 55 GA
Cardiff Cardiff
WLDWL
86 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
1.87
1.1
Average Goals Conceded
1
29
BTTS Yes
24
24
Over 2.5
24
3.47
Shots on Goal
5.26

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 50 matches
Cardiff Cardiff 46 matches
Mansfield Town Statistic Cardiff
18 Wins 27
18 Draws 10
14 Losses 9
68 Goals For 86
55 Goals Against 46
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 1.87
1.1 Avg Goals Conceded 1
29 BTTS Yes 24
38 Over 1.5 35
24 Over 2.5 24
10 Over 3.5 16
16 Clean Sheets 17
12 Failed To Score 7
3.47 Shots On Goal 5.26
11.29 Total Shots 15.33
4.49 Corners 6.07
44.4% Ball Possession 61.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cardiff. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Cardiff carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 91 points while Mansfield Town sit 11 on 62, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mansfield Town expected to line up in 4-1-3-2 and Cardiff in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cardiff having the stronger overall control. Cardiff look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Mansfield Town Analysis

So far, Mansfield Town have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 62 points from 45 matches. The record of 15 wins, 17 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 57:46 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through W. Evans (8 goals), L. Akins (7 goals), R. Oates (7 goals), with creative support from R. Oates (3 assists), R. Hendry (3 assists), Stephen McLaughlin (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Cardiff Analysis

Cardiff approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 91 points after 45 outings. They have recorded 27 wins, 10 draws, and 8 losses, with a 86:45 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Y. Salech (14 goals), O. Kellyman (9 goals), C. Robinson (8 goals), with creative support from Ollie Tanner (11 assists), C. Willock (7 assists), R. Wintle (7 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, their record of 10 wins, 8 draws, and 4 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Mansfield Town won 1 times, Cardiff won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:11 from Mansfield Town's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 4.25 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.5%)
Predicted formations: Mansfield Town 4-1-3-2 / Cardiff 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Mansfield Town wins 1, draws 1, Cardiff wins 2
Stats
Mansfield Town Mansfield Town
Cardiff Cardiff
Shots on Goal
10
Shots on Goal
7
Shots off Goal
1
Shots off Goal
9
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
5
6 Corner Kicks 8
14 Fouls 7
2 Offsides 0
30% Ball Possession 70%
12 Total Shots 21
10 Shots on Goal 7
1 Shots off Goal 9
1 Blocked Shots 5
7 Shots insidebox 11
5 Shots outsidebox 10
3 Goalkeeper Saves 4
227 Total passes 549
166 Passes accurate 490
1.98 expected_goals 2.65
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Mansfield Town
Formation
Cardiff
L. Roberts
L. Roberts
K. Knoyle
K. Knoyle
J. Bowery
J. Bowery
R. Sweeney
R. Sweeney
L. Reed
🎯
L. Reed
N. Moriah-Welsh
🎯
N. Moriah-Welsh
J. Russell
J. Russell
R. Hendry
R. Hendry
W. Evans
🎯
W. Evans
L. Akins
⚽ 2
L. Akins
R. Oates
R. Oates
H. Tyrer
H. Tyrer
R. Kpakio
R. Kpakio
W. Fish
W. Fish
D. Lawlor
D. Lawlor
J. Bagan
J. Bagan
J. Colwill
J. Colwill
D. Turnbull
D. Turnbull
O. Tanner
🎯
O. Tanner
R. Colwill
🎯
R. Colwill
C. Willock
C. Willock
Y. Salech
Y. Salech
Mansfield Town 3-1-4-2
Starting XI
1
L. Roberts
G
2
K. Knoyle
D
9
J. Bowery
↓ 72'
D
5
R. Sweeney
⚽ 2'
D
25
L. Reed
🎯 23' 🎯 63' 🎯 79' ↓ 84'
M
22
N. Moriah-Welsh
🎯 2' ↓ 76'
M
13
J. Russell
M
24
R. Hendry
↓ 84' 🟨 82'
M
11
W. Evans
🎯 26'
M
7
L. Akins
⚽ 23' ⚽ 26'
F
18
R. Oates
⚽ 63' ↓ 76'
F
Substitutes
3
S. McLaughlin
↑ 72'
D
14
D. Dwyer
F
29
T. Roberts
F
28
J. Gardner
↑ 76'
F
44
O. Irow
⚽ 79' ↑ 76' 🟨 90+2'
F
34
O. Taylor
↑ 84'
32
E. Hartmann
↑ 84'
M
Cardiff 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
30
H. Tyrer
G
44
R. Kpakio
⚽ 86'
D
2
W. Fish
D
48
D. Lawlor
D
3
J. Bagan
↓ 70'
D
27
J. Colwill
↓ 57'
M
14
D. Turnbull
↓ 57'
M
11
O. Tanner
🎯 61'
M
10
R. Colwill
🎯 66' ↓ 88'
M
16
C. Willock
↓ 57'
M
22
Y. Salech
F
Substitutes
41
M. Turner
G
39
I. Davies
⚽ 61' 🎯 90' ↑ 57'
F
18
A. Robertson
↑ 57'
M
8
O. Kellyman
⚽ 66' ⚽ 90' ↑ 57' 🟨 65'
M
70
N. Williams
↑ 70'
D
55
R. Tankiewicz
M
71
P. Moreno
↑ 88'
M
Last matches: Mansfield Town
18.07.26
Fri
Mansfield Town
Barrow
3
4
L
28.04.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Peterborough
0
0
D
25.04.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Huddersfield
4
1
W
21.04.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Stockport County
1
0
W
18.04.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Luton
2
2
D
14.04.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Leyton Orient
0
0
D
11.04.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Wigan
1
2
L
06.04.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Burton Albion
0
0
D
03.04.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Doncaster
2
0
W
21.03.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Northampton
4
1
W
17.03.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Bradford
1
1
D
14.03.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Barnsley
2
2
D
10.03.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Reading
1
0
W
07.03.26
FA
Mansfield Town
Arsenal
1
2
L
03.03.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Rotherham
0
0
D
28.02.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
AFC Wimbledon
2
2
D
21.02.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Lincoln
0
2
L
17.02.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Blackpool
0
1
L
14.02.26
FA
Mansfield Town
Burnley
2
1
W
10.02.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Peterborough
1
2
L
Last matches: Cardiff
25.07.26
Fri
Cardiff
Forest Green
5
1
W
14.07.26
Fri
Cardiff
Cork City
6
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
Cardiff
FC Midtjylland
0
6
L
25.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Northampton
5
1
W
22.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Port Vale
1
0
W
18.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Reading
3
1
W
14.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Huddersfield
1
1
D
11.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Bolton
2
0
W
06.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Peterborough
1
1
D
21.03.26
Lea
Cardiff
Blackpool
0
0
D
17.03.26
Lea
Cardiff
Wycombe
0
2
L
14.03.26
Lea
Cardiff
Exeter City
4
0
W
10.03.26
Lea
Cardiff
Barnsley
1
1
D
07.03.26
Lea
Cardiff
Lincoln
0
2
L
28.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
Doncaster
4
0
W
21.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
Plymouth
2
5
L
17.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
AFC Wimbledon
4
1
W
14.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
Luton
3
1
W
07.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
Rotherham
3
0
W
31.01.26
Lea
Cardiff
Burton Albion
2
2
D
H2H: Mansfield Town vs Cardiff
02.05.26
H2H
Mansfield Town
Cardiff
5
4
W
29.11.25
H2H
Cardiff
Mansfield Town
3
0
L
16.01.18
H2H
Mansfield Town
Cardiff
1
4
L
06.01.18
H2H
Cardiff
Mansfield Town
0
0
D
Last matches: Mansfield Town
18.04.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Luton
2
2
D
06.04.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Burton Albion
0
0
D
21.03.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Northampton
4
1
W
14.03.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Barnsley
2
2
D
10.03.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Reading
1
0
W
07.03.26
FA
Mansfield Town
Arsenal
1
2
L
28.02.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
AFC Wimbledon
2
2
D
21.02.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Lincoln
0
2
L
10.02.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Peterborough
1
2
L
07.02.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Exeter City
0
0
D
31.01.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Wycombe
0
0
D
17.01.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Port Vale
3
0
W
01.01.26
Lea
Mansfield Town
Bradford
3
0
W
20.12.25
Lea
Mansfield Town
Stockport County
1
2
L
09.12.25
Lea
Mansfield Town
Bolton
0
1
L
22.11.25
Lea
Mansfield Town
Huddersfield
1
3
L
01.11.25
FA
Mansfield Town
Harrogate Town
3
2
W
28.10.25
Lea
Mansfield Town
Plymouth
2
0
W
25.10.25
Lea
Mansfield Town
Wigan
1
1
D
27.09.25
Lea
Mansfield Town
Rotherham
2
1
W
H2H at home: Mansfield Town
02.05.26
H2H
Mansfield Town
Cardiff
5
4
W
16.01.18
H2H
Mansfield Town
Cardiff
1
4
L
Last matches: Cardiff
25.07.26
Fri
Cardiff
Forest Green
5
1
W
14.07.26
Fri
Cardiff
Cork City
6
1
W
18.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Reading
3
1
W
14.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Huddersfield
1
1
D
06.04.26
Lea
Cardiff
Peterborough
1
1
D
14.03.26
Lea
Cardiff
Exeter City
4
0
W
10.03.26
Lea
Cardiff
Barnsley
1
1
D
28.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
Doncaster
4
0
W
21.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
Plymouth
2
5
L
07.02.26
Lea
Cardiff
Rotherham
3
0
W
31.01.26
Lea
Cardiff
Burton Albion
2
2
D
17.01.26
Lea
Cardiff
Bradford
2
1
W
10.01.26
Lea
Cardiff
Leyton Orient
1
1
D
01.01.26
Lea
Cardiff
Wycombe
1
1
D
20.12.25
Lea
Cardiff
Lincoln
1
2
L
09.12.25
Lea
Cardiff
Stevenage
1
0
W
22.11.25
Lea
Cardiff
Northampton
3
1
W
08.11.25
Lea
Cardiff
Blackpool
1
3
L
01.11.25
FA
Cardiff
Peterborough
0
1
L
25.10.25
Lea
Cardiff
Bolton
0
1
L
H2H away: Cardiff
02.05.26
H2H
Mansfield Town
Cardiff
5
4
L
16.01.18
H2H
Mansfield Town
Cardiff
1
4
W

Standings

League One: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 31 10 5 89:41 48 103
W W W D W
2 46 27 10 9 90:50 40 91
L W W W D
3 46 22 11 13 71:58 13 77
W L W L D
4 46 22 11 13 58:51 7 77
W D D D L
5 46 19 18 9 70:52 18 75
L D D W L
6 46 21 12 13 49:46 3 75
W D W D L
7 46 21 11 14 68:56 12 74
W W W D W
8 46 22 7 17 75:63 12 73
W W D W D
9 46 18 13 15 74:64 10 67
W L D D D
10 46 16 17 13 62:50 12 65
W D W W D
11 46 17 12 17 69:58 11 63
W L L D L
12 46 16 15 15 64:60 4 63
L D L L L
13 46 17 9 20 54:65 -11 60
W W W W L
14 46 17 9 20 50:69 -19 60
W D L W W
15 46 15 14 17 68:73 -5 59
L W L L D
16 46 14 14 18 49:58 -9 56
L L D W W
17 46 13 15 18 50:60 -10 54
D D D W D
18 46 15 8 23 64:68 -4 53
L D L D L
19 46 15 8 23 51:72 -21 53
L W L L L
20 46 14 10 22 59:71 -12 52
D L L D L
21 46 12 13 21 52:61 -9 49
L D D D W
22 46 10 12 24 36:61 -25 42
L W L L D
23 46 10 11 25 41:71 -30 41
L D L W L
24 46 9 8 29 39:74 -35 35
L L L L L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two