SPAIN SEGUNDA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio La Rosaleda
Referee: R. Sanchez
Malaga
Match Timeline
Sporting Gijon
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
J. Dubasin · Assist: G. Rosas
Sporting Gijon
VAR
13'
Jonathan Dubasin
Sporting Gijon
VAR
24'
Jonathan Dubasin
Sporting Gijon
🟥
25'
Jonathan Dubasin
Sporting Gijon
🔄
35'
D. Brasanac ↔ Chupe
Malaga
🟥
45'
Carlos Dotor
Malaga
🟨
45+8'
Andrés Cuenca
Sporting Gijon
🔄
46'
E. Galilea ↔ R. Enriquez
Malaga
54'
Chupe · Assist: R. Enriquez
Malaga
🔄
59'
G. Campos ↔ J. Otero
Sporting Gijon
🟨
61'
Rubén Yáñez
Sporting Gijon
🟨
61'
Justin Smith
Sporting Gijon
🔄
69'
A. Nino ↔ A. Ochoa
Malaga
🔄
70'
↔ H. Abaida
Malaga
🔄
76'
D. Sanchez ↔ K. Vazquez
Sporting Gijon
🔄
76'
A. Cuenca ↔ M. Rodriguez
Sporting Gijon
🟨
81'
Diego Murillo
Malaga
🔄
83'
I. Merino ↔ R. Rodriguez
Malaga
🟨
86'
César Gelabert
Sporting Gijon
86'
J. Munoz · Assist: R. Rodriguez
Malaga
🟨
90+2'
Juan Otero
Sporting Gijon
🔄
90'
A. Corredera ↔ P. Garcia
Sporting Gijon
🔄
90'
G. Rosas ↔ M. Conde
Sporting Gijon

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
100%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Malaga Win 100%
Draw 0%
Sporting Gijon Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Malaga1.55
Sporting Gijon1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Malaga Malaga
WWDLW
70 GF / 52 GA
Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon
WLDWL
54 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
1.75
Average Goals Scored
1.32
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
25
BTTS Yes
21
25
Over 2.5
19
5.1
Shots on Goal
4.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Malaga Malaga 40 matches
Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 41 matches
Malaga Statistic Sporting Gijon
19 Wins 17
9 Draws 7
12 Losses 17
70 Goals For 54
52 Goals Against 51
1.75 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
25 BTTS Yes 21
31 Over 1.5 26
25 Over 2.5 19
13 Over 3.5 11
10 Clean Sheets 13
6 Failed To Score 9
5.1 Shots On Goal 4.25
13.05 Total Shots 11.2
3.93 Corners 4.68
49.5% Ball Possession 44.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Sporting Gijon. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Sporting Gijon arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Malaga expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Sporting Gijon in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sporting Gijon having the stronger overall control.

Malaga Analysis

Malaga sit 6 with 63 points after 38 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 18 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses, while the 66:49 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Chupe (20 goals), A. Nino (12 goals), David Larrubia (9 goals), with creative support from Joaquín Muñoz (6 assists), Chupe (4 assists), David Larrubia (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 11 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Sporting Gijon Analysis

With 52 points from 38 games and a place of 12, Sporting Gijon still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 15 wins, 7 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 51:49, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Dubasin (15 goals), J. Otero (13 goals), C. Gelabert Pina (8 goals), with creative support from J. Otero (12 assists), G. Rosas (6 assists), J. Dubasin (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 1 draws, and 12 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Malaga won 6 times, Sporting Gijon won 3 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:15 from Malaga's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1 (100%)
Predicted formations: Malaga 4-4-2 / Sporting Gijon 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Malaga wins 6, draws 6, Sporting Gijon wins 3
Stats
Malaga Malaga
Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
8
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
9
Blocked Shots
1
9 Corner Kicks 1
4 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 3
66% Ball Possession 34%
24 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Goal 2
8 Shots off Goal 2
9 Blocked Shots 1
19 Shots insidebox 4
5 Shots outsidebox 1
1 Goalkeeper Saves 4
634 Total passes 330
570 Passes accurate 262
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 5 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Malaga
Formation
Sporting Gijon
A. Herrero
A. Herrero
C. Puga
C. Puga
D. Murillo
D. Murillo
E. Galilea
E. Galilea
Rafita
Rafita
D. Brasanac
D. Brasanac
I. Merino
I. Merino
D. Larrubia
D. Larrubia
C. Dotor
C. Dotor
J. Munoz
J. Munoz
A. Nino
A. Nino
R. Yanez
R. Yanez
G. Rosas
🎯
G. Rosas
P. Vazquez
P. Vazquez
L. Perrin
L. Perrin
A. Cuenca
A. Cuenca
D. Sanchez
D. Sanchez
C. Gelabert Pina
C. Gelabert Pina
J. Smith
J. Smith
A. Corredera
A. Corredera
G. Campos
G. Campos
J. Dubasin
J. Dubasin
Malaga 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
A. Herrero
G
3
C. Puga
D
16
D. Murillo
🟨 81'
D
4
E. Galilea
↓ 46'
D
31
Rafita
D
5
D. Brasanac
↓ 35'
M
23
I. Merino
↓ 83'
M
10
D. Larrubia
M
12
C. Dotor
🟥 45'
M
11
J. Munoz
⚽ 86'
M
21
A. Nino
↓ 69'
F
Substitutes
13
C. Lopez
G
14
V. Garcia
D
20
J. Montero
D
17
E. Jauregi
F
24
J. Lobete
F
37
R. Rodriguez
🎯 86' ↑ 83'
M
9
Chupe
⚽ 54' ↑ 35'
F
6
R. Enriquez
🎯 54' ↑ 46'
M
7
H. Abaida
↑ 70'
F
36
A. Recio
D
2
J. Gabilondo
D
35
A. Ochoa
↑ 69'
M
Sporting Gijon 5-4-1
Starting XI
1
R. Yanez
🟨 61'
G
2
G. Rosas
🎯 11' ↓ 90'
D
15
P. Vazquez
D
4
L. Perrin
D
44
A. Cuenca
↓ 76' 🟨 45+8'
D
5
D. Sanchez
↓ 76'
D
10
C. Gelabert Pina
🟨 86'
M
24
J. Smith
🟨 61'
M
14
A. Corredera
↓ 90'
M
7
G. Campos
↓ 59'
M
17
J. Dubasin
⚽ 11' 🟥 25'
F
Substitutes
13
C. Joel
G
30
I. Venteo
G
20
K. Vazquez
↑ 76'
D
3
P. Garcia
↑ 90'
D
18
A. Coundoul
F
19
J. Otero
↑ 59' 🟨 90+2'
F
23
E. Curbelo
D
8
J. Bernal
M
27
A. Oyon
F
47
M. Conde
↑ 90'
F
36
M. Rodriguez
↑ 76'
M
Last matches: Malaga
20.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Almeria
2
1
W
14.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Almeria
0
0
D
10.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Las Palmas
1
1
D
07.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Las Palmas
1
0
W
31.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Zaragoza
2
0
W
24.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Racing Santander
1
1
D
16.05.26
Seg
Malaga
AD Ceuta FC
4
1
W
02.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Eibar
4
2
W
25.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Castellón
2
3
L
19.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Almeria
2
3
L
11.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Las Palmas
2
0
W
04.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna
1
1
D
01.04.26
Seg
Malaga
FC Andorra
3
3
D
28.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Leganes
0
0
D
21.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Cadiz
3
0
W
15.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Huesca
5
3
W
07.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Valladolid
3
3
D
28.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Granada CF
1
0
W
22.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Albacete
1
0
W
16.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Real Sociedad II
1
2
L
Last matches: Sporting Gijon
30.05.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Granada CF
2
1
W
24.05.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Almeria
3
1
W
17.05.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Zaragoza
3
1
W
03.05.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
AD Ceuta FC
1
2
L
26.04.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Cordoba
2
3
L
19.04.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Cadiz
3
0
W
11.04.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Burgos
0
1
L
06.04.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Real Sociedad II
1
0
W
01.04.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Racing Santander
1
3
L
28.03.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Deportivo La Coruna
1
1
D
22.03.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Las Palmas
0
1
L
15.03.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Castellón
4
1
W
08.03.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
FC Andorra
0
1
L
02.03.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Leganes
0
0
D
22.02.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Valladolid
2
2
D
15.02.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Albacete
1
1
D
08.02.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Huesca
2
1
W
01.02.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Eibar
0
1
L
24.01.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Mirandes
3
0
W
17.01.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Cultural Leonesa
4
2
W
H2H: Malaga vs Sporting Gijon
09.05.26
H2H
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
2
1
W
04.01.26
H2H
Sporting Gijon
Malaga
1
3
W
17.05.25
H2H
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
2
1
W
21.12.24
H2H
Sporting Gijon
Malaga
1
3
W
29.01.23
H2H
Sporting Gijon
Malaga
0
0
D
06.11.22
H2H
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
1
1
D
09.01.22
H2H
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
2
2
D
26.09.21
H2H
Sporting Gijon
Malaga
2
1
L
14.02.21
H2H
Sporting Gijon
Malaga
1
0
L
22.10.20
H2H
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
1
0
W
13.07.20
H2H
Sporting Gijon
Malaga
2
1
L
29.09.19
H2H
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
0
0
D
29.03.19
H2H
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
1
1
D
11.11.18
H2H
Sporting Gijon
Malaga
2
2
D
05.04.17
H2H
Sporting Gijon
Malaga
0
1
W
Last matches: Malaga
14.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Almeria
0
0
D
10.06.26
Seg
Malaga
Las Palmas
1
1
D
24.05.26
Seg
Malaga
Racing Santander
1
1
D
25.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Castellón
2
3
L
11.04.26
Seg
Malaga
Las Palmas
2
0
W
28.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Leganes
0
0
D
15.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Huesca
5
3
W
07.03.26
Seg
Malaga
Valladolid
3
3
D
22.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Albacete
1
0
W
08.02.26
Seg
Malaga
Cultural Leonesa
2
1
W
23.01.26
Seg
Malaga
Burgos
3
0
W
11.01.26
Seg
Malaga
AD Ceuta FC
2
1
W
21.12.25
Seg
Malaga
Almeria
2
1
W
08.12.25
Seg
Malaga
Zaragoza
1
1
D
23.11.25
Seg
Malaga
Mirandes
3
2
W
08.11.25
Seg
Malaga
Cordoba
2
2
D
26.10.25
Seg
Malaga
FC Andorra
4
1
W
12.10.25
Seg
Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna
3
0
W
21.09.25
Seg
Malaga
Cadiz
0
1
L
06.09.25
Seg
Malaga
Granada CF
2
2
D
H2H at home: Malaga
09.05.26
H2H
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
2
1
W
17.05.25
H2H
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
2
1
W
06.11.22
H2H
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
1
1
D
09.01.22
H2H
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
2
2
D
22.10.20
H2H
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
1
0
W
29.09.19
H2H
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
0
0
D
29.03.19
H2H
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
1
1
D
Last matches: Sporting Gijon
30.05.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Granada CF
2
1
W
17.05.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Zaragoza
3
1
W
26.04.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Cordoba
2
3
L
11.04.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Burgos
0
1
L
01.04.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Racing Santander
1
3
L
22.03.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Las Palmas
0
1
L
08.03.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
FC Andorra
0
1
L
15.02.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Albacete
1
1
D
01.02.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Eibar
0
1
L
17.01.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Cultural Leonesa
4
2
W
09.01.26
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Cadiz
2
3
L
20.12.25
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Leganes
1
0
W
06.12.25
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Real Sociedad II
1
0
W
03.12.25
Cop
Sporting Gijon
Mirandes
2
0
W
23.11.25
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Huesca
0
2
L
07.11.25
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Mirandes
1
2
L
29.10.25
Cop
Sporting Gijon
Caudal
1
0
W
19.10.25
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Valladolid
3
2
W
05.10.25
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Castellón
1
3
L
20.09.25
Seg
Sporting Gijon
Almeria
1
2
L
H2H away: Sporting Gijon
09.05.26
H2H
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
2
1
L
17.05.25
H2H
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
2
1
L
06.11.22
H2H
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
1
1
D
09.01.22
H2H
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
2
2
D
22.10.20
H2H
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
1
0
L
29.09.19
H2H
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
0
0
D
29.03.19
H2H
Malaga
Sporting Gijon
1
1
D

Standings

Segunda División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 42 25 7 10 90:61 29 82
W D W W W
2 42 22 11 9 65:44 21 77
L W W W W
3 42 22 8 12 81:63 18 74
L D W D W
4 42 21 10 11 75:52 23 73
W D D W W
5 42 20 13 9 57:40 17 73
D L W D W
6 42 20 12 10 70:51 19 72
L D W W D
7 42 20 12 10 48:33 15 72
W W W D D
8 42 19 10 13 52:40 12 67
L W L W L
9 42 18 7 17 60:54 6 61
W W W L L
10 42 17 10 15 57:61 -4 61
D L L W W
11 42 17 10 15 51:63 -12 61
W W L D W
12 42 16 11 15 56:55 1 59
L W W W W
13 42 16 10 16 62:54 8 58
L L L W L
14 42 12 12 18 50:56 -6 48
L L L L W
15 42 12 11 19 52:61 -9 47
D L D W D
16 42 11 13 18 43:51 -8 46
W L D L L
17 42 12 10 20 44:57 -13 46
L L L W L
18 42 11 10 21 41:61 -20 43
L W D L D
19 42 10 10 22 47:69 -22 40
L W D L L
20 42 9 11 22 41:63 -22 38
D L D L L
21 42 9 10 23 39:68 -29 37
D L W L D
22 42 8 12 22 35:59 -24 36
L D L L L
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation