SPAIN › SEGUNDA DIVISIóN

25.04.2026 19:00

Malaga

2 - 3

Castellón

Estadio La Rosaleda

Referee: C. Muniz

Malaga

Match Timeline

Castellón

0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'

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Malaga vs Castellón Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2

Home Win

Probability 62.4%

Odds -

BTTS

BTTS Yes

Probability 80%

Odds -

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.5

Probability 54.7%

Odds -

All Markets

Market	Option	Probability	Odds	Stats & Analysis
1X2	Home Win	62.4%	-	▥
BTTS	BTTS Yes	80%	-	▥
Over / Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54.7%	-	▥

Probability Distribution

Malaga Win 62.4%

Draw 5.8%

Castellón Win 31.8%

Expected Goals (xG)

Malaga1.5

Castellón1.49

Recent Form (Last 5)

Malaga

WWDLW

64 GF / 47 GA

Castellón

WLDWL

61 GF / 45 GA

Key Stats

1.68

Average Goals Scored

1.65

1.24

Average Goals Conceded

1.22

BTTS Yes

Over 2.5

4.97

Shots on Goal

4.81

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Malaga 38 matches

Castellón 37 matches

Malaga	Statistic	Castellón
18	Wins	17
9	Draws	10
11	Losses	10
64	Goals For	61
47	Goals Against	45
1.68	Avg Goals Scored	1.65
1.24	Avg Goals Conceded	1.22
23	BTTS Yes	21
29	Over 1.5	27
23	Over 2.5	18
11	Over 3.5	16
10	Clean Sheets	11
6	Failed To Score	9
4.97	Shots On Goal	4.81
12.92	Total Shots	14.27
3.95	Corners	5.92
49%	Ball Possession	53.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Malaga won 3 times, Castellón won 5 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:10 from Malaga's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.38 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win

BTTS: BTTS Yes

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5

Highest model probability: 12 (94.2%)

Predicted formations: Malaga 4-4-2 / Castellón 4-1-4-1

H2H summary: Malaga wins 3, draws 0, Castellón wins 5

Standings

Segunda División

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	Racing Santander	42	25	7	10	90:61	29	82	W D W W W
2	Deportivo La Coruna	42	22	11	9	65:44	21	77	L W W W W
3	Almeria	42	22	8	12	81:63	18	74	L D W D W
4	Malaga Home	42	21	10	11	75:52	23	73	W D D W W
5	Las Palmas	42	20	13	9	57:40	17	73	D L W D W
6	Castellón Away	42	20	12	10	70:51	19	72	L D W W D
7	Burgos	42	20	12	10	48:33	15	72	W W W D D
8	Eibar	42	19	10	13	52:40	12	67	L W L W L
9	Sporting Gijon	42	18	7	17	60:54	6	61	W W W L L
10	Cordoba	42	17	10	15	57:61	-4	61	D L L W W
11	AD Ceuta FC	42	17	10	15	51:63	-12	61	W W L D W
12	Albacete	42	16	11	15	56:55	1	59	L W W W W
13	FC Andorra	42	16	10	16	62:54	8	58	L L L W L
14	Granada CF	42	12	12	18	50:56	-6	48	L L L L W
15	Real Sociedad II	42	12	11	19	52:61	-9	47	D L D W D
16	Leganes	42	11	13	18	43:51	-8	46	W L D L L
17	Valladolid	42	12	10	20	44:57	-13	46	L L L W L
18	Cadiz	42	11	10	21	41:61	-20	43	L W D L D
19	Mirandes	42	10	10	22	47:69	-22	40	L W D L L
20	Huesca	42	9	11	22	41:63	-22	38	D L D L L
21	Cultural Leonesa	42	9	10	23	39:68	-29	37	D L W L D
22	Zaragoza	42	8	12	22	35:59	-24	36	L D L L L

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