ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Bellavista
Referee: Russell Macario Teran Leon, Ecuador
Macara
Match Timeline
Mushuc Runa SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
Tomson Minda · Assist: Ronie Carrillo
Mushuc Runa SC
16'
Martin Tello · Assist: Matías Miranda
Macara
🟨
40'
Luis Ayala
Macara
VAR
45+4'
Miguel Perea
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
46'
Jose Klinger ↔ Agustin Campana
Macara
🟨
53'
Santiago Etchebarne
Macara
🟨
56'
Nicolás Dávila
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
66'
Tomson Minda ↔ Jefferson Caicedo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
66'
Nicolás Dávila ↔ Bryan Corozo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
67'
Luis Ayala ↔ Jordán Mohor
Macara
🔄
67'
Matías Miranda ↔ Jean Carlos Estacio
Macara
68'
Franco Posse · Assist: Mateo Viera
Macara
🟨
72'
Renato Ibarra
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
77'
Renato Ibarra ↔ Cristopher Angulo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
77'
Ronie Carrillo ↔ Elian Caicedo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
79'
Martin Tello ↔ Carlos Caicedo
Macara
🔄
85'
Franco Posse ↔ Luca Ferro
Macara
🔄
85'
José Hernández ↔ Ronny Biojo
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
87'
Jose Cazares
Macara
90+4'
Elian Caicedo
Mushuc Runa SC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.2%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.8%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Macara Win 57.2%
Draw 16.3%
Mushuc Runa SC Win 26.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Macara1.2
Mushuc Runa SC1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Macara Macara
WWDLW
20 GF / 22 GA
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC
WLDWL
23 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.28
1.1
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
8
BTTS Yes
11
8
Over 2.5
10
4.11
Shots on Goal
3.61

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Macara Macara 20 matches
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC 18 matches
Macara Statistic Mushuc Runa SC
7 Wins 5
5 Draws 6
8 Losses 7
20 Goals For 23
22 Goals Against 27
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.28
1.1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
8 BTTS Yes 11
14 Over 1.5 12
8 Over 2.5 10
2 Over 3.5 9
8 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 4
4.11 Shots On Goal 3.61
12.22 Total Shots 12.56
4.94 Corners 4.39
49.4% Ball Possession 47.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Macara expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Mushuc Runa SC in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mushuc Runa SC having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Mushuc Runa SC.

Macara Analysis

Macara sit 8 with 23 points after 17 league matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 16:18 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Franco Posse (4 goals), Federico Paz (3 goals), Luca Ferro (2 goals), with creative support from Jose Klinger (3 assists), Federico Paz (2 assists), Franco Posse (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mushuc Runa SC Analysis

Mushuc Runa SC are currently 10 in the standings with 21 points from 17 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 22:23 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Ronie Carrillo (4 goals), Kevin Velasco (2 goals), Renato Ibarra (2 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Dávila (3 assists), Kevin Velasco (2 assists), Jackson González (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Macara won 3 times, Mushuc Runa SC won 4 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:16 from Macara's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.14 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.7%)
Predicted formations: Macara 4-2-3-1 / Mushuc Runa SC 4-4-2
H2H summary: Macara wins 3, draws 7, Mushuc Runa SC wins 4

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 2 3 66:28 38 68
D W W W W
2 27 14 5 8 31:26 5 47
W W L W W
3 27 13 6 8 35:27 8 45
W L D W W
4 27 12 8 7 47:25 22 44
D W D L W
5 27 12 5 10 27:22 5 41
L W W L W
6 27 10 9 8 28:22 6 39
L W D L D
7 27 10 7 10 29:30 -1 37
L W D W W
8 27 9 9 9 33:34 -1 36
W D D W W
9 27 9 9 9 27:30 -3 36
W W D D L
10 27 9 8 10 29:30 -1 35
L L W L D
11 27 9 8 10 23:32 -9 32
W L W D L
12 27 9 5 13 23:35 -12 32
L D L L L
13 27 8 6 13 31:41 -10 30
L L W D L
14 27 9 2 16 26:38 -12 29
W L L L L
15 27 6 6 15 17:29 -12 24
L L L D L
16 27 5 5 17 14:37 -23 20
W L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs