ECUADOR LIGA PRO
13.09.2026 20:30
Estadio Bellavista
Macara
Match Timeline
Emelec
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
37'
Víctor Griffith
Emelec
🔄
45'
Víctor Griffith ↔ Jose Francisco Cevallos
Emelec
🔄
45'
Gonzalo Nápoli ↔ Reixon David Saya Paredes
Emelec
🟨
50'
Ronie Carrillo
Emelec
60'
augustin campana
Macara
🔄
66'
Juan Pablo·Ruiz Gomez ↔ Jaime Ayoví
Emelec
🔄
66'
luis Fragozo ↔ Teodoro Arce
Emelec
🔄
73'
M. Viera ↔ J. Klinger
Macara
🔄
77'
Estalin Segura ↔ Orlando Herrera
Emelec
🔄
81'
augustin campana ↔ Tono Espinoza
Macara
🔄
81'
Martín Alejandro Tello Escobar ↔ Marlon Medranda
Macara
🔄
87'
Denilson Bolanos ↔ Juan Espinoza
Macara

Macara vs Emelec Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 87.1%
Odds 1.96
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 2.29
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
87.1%
1.96
BTTS Yes
82.5%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
2.29
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
80.6%
1.28
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.10
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Macara Win 87.1%
Draw 4.6%
Emelec Win 8.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Macara1.27
Emelec0.99
Recent Form (Last 5)
Macara Macara
WWDLW
42 GF / 37 GA
Emelec Emelec
WLDWL
25 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
0.86
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
17
BTTS Yes
12
17
Over 2.5
6
4.86
Shots on Goal
3.28

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Macara Macara 31 matches
Emelec Emelec 29 matches
Macara Statistic Emelec
14 Wins 10
6 Draws 9
11 Losses 10
42 Goals For 25
37 Goals Against 33
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 0.86
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
17 BTTS Yes 12
24 Over 1.5 21
17 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 2
9 Clean Sheets 10
7 Failed To Score 10
4.86 Shots On Goal 3.28
13 Total Shots 10.52
4.59 Corners 4.28
48.3% Ball Possession 44.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Macara's more proactive style and Emelec's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Emelec. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Macara expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Emelec in 4-4-1-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Emelec having the stronger overall control. Macara arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 48 points compared to Emelec in 12 on 33, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Macara Analysis

Macara arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 48 points after 29 matches. The record of 14 wins, 6 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 40:33 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through F. Posse (9 goals), A. Campana (7 goals), M. Tello (3 goals), with creative support from F. Posse (4 assists), Matías Miranda (3 assists), J. Klinger (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Emelec Analysis

So far, Emelec have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 33 points from 28 matches. The record of 9 wins, 9 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 24:33 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through L. Klimowicz (6 goals), J. Ruíz (3 goals), Ignacio Guerrico (2 goals), with creative support from Luis Fragozo (3 assists), F. Pizzini (3 assists), A. Mina (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Macara won 4 times, Emelec won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:19 from Macara's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Macara 4-1-4-1 / Emelec 4-4-1-1
H2H summary: Macara wins 4, draws 6, Emelec wins 5

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
11 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 36
L W D W L
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs