BULGARIA FIRST LEAGUE
12.09.2026 15:00
Huvepharma Arena

Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74%
Odds 1.22
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.61
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74%
1.22
BTTS Yes
78.8%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.61
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.73
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Ludogorets Win 74%
Draw 5.2%
Septemvri Sofia Win 20.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ludogorets1.88
Septemvri Sofia1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ludogorets Ludogorets
WWDLW
35 GF / 22 GA
Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia
WLDWL
19 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
2.06
Average Goals Scored
1.06
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.61
11
BTTS Yes
8
9
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ludogorets Ludogorets 17 matches
Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia 18 matches
Ludogorets Statistic Septemvri Sofia
11 Wins 6
5 Draws 2
1 Losses 10
35 Goals For 19
22 Goals Against 29
2.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.61
11 BTTS Yes 8
14 Over 1.5 14
9 Over 2.5 10
7 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 5
1 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Ludogorets's more proactive style and Septemvri Sofia's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Septemvri Sofia. Ludogorets arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 17 points compared to Septemvri Sofia in 7 on 8, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Ludogorets Analysis

Ludogorets come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 17 points after 7 matches. The return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 0 defeats, together with goals at 12:5, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Septemvri Sofia Analysis

So far, Septemvri Sofia have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 8 points from 8 matches. The record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 7:13 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Ludogorets won 10 times, Septemvri Sofia won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 32:3 from Ludogorets's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.18 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: Ludogorets 4-2-3-1 / Septemvri Sofia 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Ludogorets wins 10, draws 1, Septemvri Sofia wins 0

Standings

A PFG
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 8 0 0 21:4 17 24
W W W W W
2 8 6 2 0 14:6 8 20
W D D W W
3 7 5 2 0 17:5 12 17
D W W W W
4 8 5 1 2 15:8 7 16
L W L W W
5 8 5 1 2 13:7 6 16
L W W W W
6 8 2 4 2 8:6 2 10
W L D D W
7 8 3 1 4 11:14 -3 10
W L L L W
8 8 2 3 3 10:14 -4 9
D D L L L
9 8 2 2 4 7:13 -6 8
L D W W L
10 8 2 1 5 7:17 -10 7
W L W L L
11 8 2 0 6 4:10 -6 6
W L L L L
12 8 1 1 6 8:17 -9 4
L L W L L
13 8 1 1 6 7:15 -8 4
L D L W L
14 7 0 3 4 8:14 -6 3
L D L L D
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