BULGARIA FIRST LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Huvepharma Arena
Referee: L. Biserov
Ludogorets
Match Timeline
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
60'
Todor Pavlov
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🟨
63'
Vinicius Nogueira
Ludogorets
🔄
63'
E. Bile ↔ K. Duah
Ludogorets
🟨
66'
Kaloyan Kostov
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔄
73'
C. Itu ↔ J. Lamy
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔄
73'
P. Umarbaev ↔ G. B. Chorbadzhiyski
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🟨
75'
Andrei Chindriş
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔄
86'
I. Chochev ↔ F. Kaloc
Ludogorets
🔄
96'
D. Duarte ↔ A. Salido Tajero
Ludogorets
🔄
96'
P. Stanic ↔ Rwan Cruz
Ludogorets
🔄
107'
E. Kurtulus ↔ I. Nachmias
Ludogorets
🟨
118'
Bojan Milosavljević
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔄
120+2'
B. Milosavljevic ↔ P. Zovko
Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.1%
Odds 1.43
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 56.9%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.9%
Odds 1.88
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.1%
1.43
BTTS BTTS No
56.9%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.9%
1.88
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
2.85
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.20
Correct Score 2-0
-
6.50
Probability Distribution
Ludogorets Win 74.1%
Draw 0%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv Win 26%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ludogorets1.38
Lokomotiv Plovdiv1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ludogorets Ludogorets
WWDLW
86 GF / 52 GA
Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv
WLDWL
36 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
1.59
Average Goals Scored
1.03
0.96
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
24
BTTS Yes
15
27
Over 2.5
11
3.78
Shots on Goal
2.59

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ludogorets Ludogorets 54 matches
Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 35 matches
Ludogorets Statistic Lokomotiv Plovdiv
26 Wins 14
14 Draws 13
14 Losses 8
86 Goals For 36
52 Goals Against 37
1.59 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
0.96 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
24 BTTS Yes 15
37 Over 1.5 24
27 Over 2.5 11
13 Over 3.5 5
23 Clean Sheets 13
14 Failed To Score 10
3.78 Shots On Goal 2.59
11.22 Total Shots 6.91
4.31 Corners 2.34
41.3% Ball Possession 29.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together Ludogorets's more proactive style and Lokomotiv Plovdiv's more cautious structure, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The first leg ended level at 1-1, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. In the previous meeting, Ludogorets had more of the ball in the first leg (71% possession compared to 29%). Ludogorets were also more accurate in attack, recording 5 shots on target to 1. Ludogorets also attempted more passes (621 to 238) and completed 524. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Ludogorets Analysis

Ludogorets enter this tie with a season profile built on 67 points from 36 matches, placing them 3 in their league. Their record of 19 wins, 10 draws, and 7 defeats with goals at 61:25 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on I. Chochev (17 goals), P. Stanic (9 goals), K. Duah (8 goals), with creative support from P. Stanic (10 assists), I. Chochev (5 assists), Erick Marcus (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 10 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, which supports a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv Analysis

Lokomotiv Plovdiv come into this tie placed 5 in their league with 55 points from 36 matches. With 14 wins, 13 draws, and 9 losses plus a goal ratio of 36:41, they bring good form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on Juan Perea (9 goals), J. Zwarts (8 goals), Lucas Ryan (4 goals), with creative support from Cătălin Itu (6 assists), Parvizdzhon Umarbaev (5 assists), J. Lamy (3 assists), while defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the return of 4 wins, 9 draws, and 5 losses suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Ludogorets won 10 times, Lokomotiv Plovdiv won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:8 from Ludogorets's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Ludogorets 4-2-3-1 / Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Ludogorets wins 10, draws 4, Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins 1

Lineups

Ludogorets
Formation
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
H. Bonmann
H. Bonmann
Son
Son
E. Kurtulus
E. Kurtulus
A. Nedyalkov
A. Nedyalkov
Vinicius Nogueira
Vinicius Nogueira
D. Duarte
D. Duarte
I. Chochev
I. Chochev
Erick Marcus
Erick Marcus
P. Stanic
P. Stanic
B. Tekpetey
B. Tekpetey
E. Bile
E. Bile
B. Milosavljevic
B. Milosavljevic
A. Chindris
A. Chindris
K. Kostov
K. Kostov
Lucas Ryan
Lucas Ryan
T. Pavlov
T. Pavlov
E. Ali
E. Ali
M. Trdan
M. Trdan
S. Idriz
S. Idriz
P. Umarbaev
P. Umarbaev
C. Itu
C. Itu
J. Zwarts
J. Zwarts
Ludogorets 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
39
H. Bonmann
G
17
Son
D
15
E. Kurtulus
↓ 107'
D
3
A. Nedyalkov
D
27
Vinicius Nogueira
🟨 63'
D
23
D. Duarte
↓ 96'
M
18
I. Chochev
↓ 86'
M
77
Erick Marcus
M
14
P. Stanic
↓ 96'
M
37
B. Tekpetey
M
29
E. Bile
↓ 63'
F
Substitutes
1
S. Padt
G
5
G. Terziev
D
7
A. Salido Tajero
↑ 96'
F
9
K. Duah
↑ 63'
F
12
Rwan Cruz
↑ 96'
F
26
F. Kaloc
↑ 86'
M
42
S. Shishkov
D
55
I. Nachmias
↑ 107'
D
82
I. Yordanov
M
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
B. Milosavljevic
↓ 120+2' 🟨 118'
G
4
A. Chindris
🟨 75'
D
44
K. Kostov
🟨 66'
D
13
Lucas Ryan
D
5
T. Pavlov
🟨 60'
D
12
E. Ali
M
3
M. Trdan
M
7
S. Idriz
M
39
P. Umarbaev
↓ 73'
M
94
C. Itu
↓ 73'
M
77
J. Zwarts
F
Substitutes
40
P. Zovko
↑ 120+2'
G
14
D. Iliev
F
33
M. Atanasov
M
99
J. Lamy
↑ 73'
M
19
M. Vangelov
16
D. Kirashki
11
Z. Dinev
29
G. B. Chorbadzhiyski
↑ 73'
M
9
A. Velev
F
Last matches: Ludogorets
25.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
1
0
W
16.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA 1948
0
1
L
13.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Levski Sofia
1
1
D
09.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Levski Sofia
1
0
W
03.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
0
1
L
25.04.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA 1948
1
2
L
15.04.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Arda Kardzhali
0
1
L
09.04.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Cherno More Varna
0
0
D
05.04.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA 1948
3
0
W
29.03.26
Fri
Ludogorets
Farul Constanta
3
2
W
19.03.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Spartak Varna
5
1
W
14.03.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
3
0
W
09.03.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Montana
3
0
W
05.03.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Levski Sofia
1
0
W
02.03.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
1
D
26.02.26
UEF
Ludogorets
Ferencvarosi TC
0
2
L
23.02.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Botev Plovdiv
1
2
L
19.02.26
UEF
Ludogorets
Ferencvarosi TC
2
1
W
15.02.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Beroe
2
1
W
07.02.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Sofia
3
1
W
Last matches: Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
2
1
W
16.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Arda Kardzhali
0
4
L
12.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Cherno More Varna
0
2
L
08.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Arda Kardzhali
2
0
W
03.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
2
0
W
26.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Cherno More Varna
0
1
L
13.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Beroe
0
0
D
08.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
1
1
D
03.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Sofia
1
0
W
22.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Botev Vratsa
2
1
W
13.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Septemvri Sofia
1
0
W
09.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Levski Sofia
0
1
L
05.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
CSKA 1948
0
5
L
02.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Ludogorets
1
1
D
21.02.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Spartak Varna
1
1
D
15.02.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Cherno More Varna
1
1
D
08.02.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Slavia Sofia
2
0
W
31.01.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Kolos Kovalivka
0
0
D
27.01.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Asia Talas
1
0
W
22.01.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Napredak
1
0
W
H2H: Ludogorets vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
29.05.26
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
0
D
02.03.26
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
1
D
14.09.25
H2H
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Ludogorets
1
1
D
30.03.25
H2H
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Ludogorets
1
0
L
06.10.24
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
0
W
22.05.24
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
3
0
W
30.03.24
H2H
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Ludogorets
1
2
W
06.12.23
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
4
0
W
27.09.23
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
1
D
26.06.23
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
3
0
W
15.05.23
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
0
W
08.11.22
H2H
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Ludogorets
2
3
W
15.07.22
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2
0
W
07.11.21
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
0
W
25.07.21
H2H
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Ludogorets
1
3
W
Last matches: Ludogorets
25.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
1
0
W
13.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Levski Sofia
1
1
D
25.04.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA 1948
1
2
L
09.04.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Cherno More Varna
0
0
D
05.04.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA 1948
3
0
W
29.03.26
Fri
Ludogorets
Farul Constanta
3
2
W
14.03.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
3
0
W
05.03.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Levski Sofia
1
0
W
02.03.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
1
D
19.02.26
UEF
Ludogorets
Ferencvarosi TC
2
1
W
15.02.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Beroe
2
1
W
29.01.26
UEF
Ludogorets
Nice
1
0
W
11.12.25
UEF
Ludogorets
PAOK
3
3
D
08.12.25
Fir
Ludogorets
Slavia Sofia
1
1
D
30.11.25
Fir
Ludogorets
Botev Vratsa
2
0
W
27.11.25
UEF
Ludogorets
Celta Vigo
3
2
W
09.11.25
Fir
Ludogorets
Arda Kardzhali
2
3
L
18.10.25
Fir
Ludogorets
Spartak Varna
1
1
D
02.10.25
UEF
Ludogorets
Real Betis
0
2
L
28.09.25
Fir
Ludogorets
Montana
3
0
W
H2H at home: Ludogorets
29.05.26
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
0
D
02.03.26
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
1
D
06.10.24
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
0
W
22.05.24
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
3
0
W
06.12.23
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
4
0
W
27.09.23
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
1
D
26.06.23
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
3
0
W
15.05.23
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
0
W
15.07.22
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2
0
W
07.11.21
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
0
W
Last matches: Lokomotiv Plovdiv
16.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Arda Kardzhali
0
4
L
12.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Cherno More Varna
0
2
L
03.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
2
0
W
13.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Beroe
0
0
D
08.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
1
1
D
22.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Botev Vratsa
2
1
W
09.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Levski Sofia
0
1
L
02.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Ludogorets
1
1
D
08.02.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Slavia Sofia
2
0
W
22.01.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Napredak
1
0
W
03.12.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
CSKA Sofia
1
2
L
23.11.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Dobrudzha
1
1
D
24.10.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Sofia
2
2
D
03.10.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Septemvri Sofia
2
2
D
20.09.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
CSKA 1948
0
4
L
30.08.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Spartak Varna
2
1
W
23.08.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Cherno More Varna
1
1
D
11.08.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Arda Kardzhali
0
0
D
28.07.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Montana
1
1
D
H2H away: Lokomotiv Plovdiv
29.05.26
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
0
D
02.03.26
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
1
D
06.10.24
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
0
L
22.05.24
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
3
0
L
06.12.23
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
4
0
L
27.09.23
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
1
D
26.06.23
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
3
0
L
15.05.23
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
0
L
15.07.22
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2
0
L
07.11.21
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 6.88
Draw 4.06
Home 1.43
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.75 1.35
Over 2.0 1.44
Over 2.25 1.67
Over 2.5 1.90
Over 2.75 2.15
Over 3.0 2.62
Over 3.25 2.98
Over 3.5 2.78
Under 1.75 3.01
Under 2.0 2.64
Under 2.25 2.15
Under 2.5 1.88
Under 2.75 1.66
Under 3.0 1.44
Under 3.25 1.35
Under 3.5 1.40
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.75
Draw 4.33
Home 1.50
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.50
Draw 2.30
Home 2.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.50
Draw 2.60
Home 1.83
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 1.5 1.25
Over 2.5 1.90
Over 3.5 3.25
Over 4.5 6.00
Over 5.5 13.00
Over 6.5 26.00
Over 7.5 51.00
Under 0.5 13.00
Under 1.5 3.75
Under 2.5 1.90
Under 3.5 1.33
Under 4.5 1.12
Under 5.5 1.04
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 6.55
Draw 4.15
Home 1.47
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.55
Draw 2.23
Home 2.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 6.08
Draw 2.62
Home 1.80
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 0.75 1.01
Over 1.0 1.02
Over 1.25 1.13
Over 1.5 1.24
Over 1.75 1.32
Over 2.0 1.41
Over 2.25 1.66
Over 2.5 1.88
Over 2.75 2.13
Over 3.0 2.49
Over 3.25 2.76
Over 3.5 3.08
Over 3.75 3.82
Over 4.0 5.20
Over 4.25 5.54
Over 4.5 5.90
Over 5.5 13.00
Under 0.5 10.30
Under 0.75 8.65
Under 1.0 8.20
Under 1.25 4.54
Under 1.5 3.34
Under 1.75 2.97
Under 2.0 2.59
Under 2.25 2.14
Under 2.5 1.87
Under 2.75 1.67
Under 3.0 1.44
Under 3.25 1.34
Under 3.5 1.28
Under 3.75 1.19
Under 4.0 1.10
Under 4.25 1.08
Under 4.5 1.07
Under 5.5 1.03
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 7.50
Draw 4.10
Home 1.43
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.75
Draw 2.25
Home 1.89
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 6.25
Draw 2.60
Home 1.81
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 2.0 1.50
Over 2.25 1.73
Over 2.5 1.96
Over 2.75 2.23
Over 3.0 2.75
Over 3.25 3.05
Over 3.5 3.40
Over 3.75 4.20
Over 4.0 5.60
Over 4.25 6.00
Over 4.5 6.25
Under 1.5 3.10
Under 2.0 2.40
Under 2.25 1.97
Under 2.5 1.73
Under 2.75 1.56
Under 3.0 1.38
Under 3.25 1.30
Under 3.5 1.26
Under 3.75 1.18
Under 4.0 1.10
Under 4.25 1.09
Under 4.5 1.08

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 36 25 6 5 71:25 46 81
D W D L W
2 36 20 7 9 54:35 19 67
D W D L L
3 36 19 10 7 61:25 36 67
W L D W L
4 36 18 9 9 47:30 17 63
L L D W W
5 36 14 13 9 36:41 -5 55
W L L W W
6 36 15 9 12 42:34 8 54
W W W L D
7 36 14 12 10 40:34 6 54
L L W W D
8 36 13 7 16 49:45 4 46
L W L L L
8 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
?
9 37 13 14 10 36:32 4 53
W W W D D
10 37 11 14 12 51:48 3 47
L W D D D
11 37 12 10 15 42:44 -2 46
W L L L W
12 37 8 13 16 35:57 -22 37
W W L W D
13 37 9 9 19 32:64 -32 36
D W W D L
14 37 7 13 17 28:52 -24 34
L L D W D
15 37 8 7 22 28:52 -24 31
D L W L D
16 37 4 11 22 21:55 -34 23
L L L D D