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12.10.2026 17:00
Huvepharma Arena
Referee: K. Kolev
Ludogorets
Match Timeline
Arda Kardzhali
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
18'
Caio Vidal · Assist: Rwan Cruz
Ludogorets
🟨
20'
Hossam Abdelmaguid
Ludogorets
🟥
30'
Georgi Nikolov
Arda Kardzhali
🟨
41'
Caio Vidal
Ludogorets
⚽
44'
B. Tekpetey · Assist: Rwan Cruz
Ludogorets
🟨
45+3'
Vyacheslav Velev
Arda Kardzhali
⚽
45'
B. Tekpetey
Ludogorets
🔄
46'
D. Duarte ↔ A. Hadziahmetovic
Ludogorets
🔄
46'
P. Stanic ↔ A. Camara
Ludogorets
⚽
55'
Rwan Cruz · Assist: A. Camara
Ludogorets
🔄
56'
B. Tekpetey ↔ Erick Marcus
Ludogorets
🔄
57'
A. Vutov ↔ P. Bachev
Arda Kardzhali
🔄
63'
S. Kovachev ↔ A. Kabov
Arda Kardzhali
🔄
63'
S. Ivanov ↔ B. Karagaren
Arda Kardzhali
🟨
68'
Viktor Lyubenov
Arda Kardzhali
🔄
68'
Caio Vidal ↔ Nathan Fernandes
Ludogorets
🔄
78'
V. Lyubenov ↔ Derick
Arda Kardzhali
🔄
79'
Rwan Cruz ↔ I. Chochev
Ludogorets
⚽
86'
I. Zhelizko · Assist: A. Hadziahmetovic
Ludogorets

Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Ludogorets Win 69.9%
Draw 4.2%
Arda Kardzhali Win 25.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ludogorets1.79
Arda Kardzhali1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ludogorets Ludogorets
W W W W D
13 GF / 3 GA
Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali
L D L L W
6 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
2.25
Average Goals Scored
1.29
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
1.1
12
BTTS Yes
10
12
Over 2.5
8
2.91
Shots on Goal
1.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ludogorets Ludogorets 20 matches
Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 21 matches
Ludogorets Statistic Arda Kardzhali
14 Wins 9
5 Draws 5
1 Losses 7
45 Goals For 27
23 Goals Against 23
2.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1.1
12 BTTS Yes 10
17 Over 1.5 16
12 Over 2.5 8
8 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 8
1 Failed To Score 4
2.91 Shots On Goal 1.8
6.64 Total Shots 6
2.36 Corners 1.6
29.4% Ball Possession 22.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Ludogorets arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 23 points compared to Arda Kardzhali in 5 on 17, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Arda Kardzhali. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Ludogorets Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 23 points from 9 games, Ludogorets bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 0 defeats, together with goals at 16:7, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Arda Kardzhali Analysis

Arda Kardzhali come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 17 points from 10 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 15:12 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Ludogorets won 8 times, Arda Kardzhali won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 34:14 from Ludogorets's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
Predicted formations: Ludogorets 4-1-4-1 / Arda Kardzhali 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Ludogorets wins 8, draws 5, Arda Kardzhali wins 2

Standings

A PFG
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 12 10 2 0 25:5 20 32
W D W D W
2 13 9 4 0 29:9 20 31
D W W D W
3 12 9 2 1 24:9 15 29
W L W W W
4 13 9 1 3 31:14 17 28
W W L W W
5 14 7 2 5 23:21 2 23
D W L W W
6 13 6 3 4 18:19 -1 21
W D L D L
7 13 2 7 4 9:9 0 13
D D L L D
8 13 3 4 6 12:23 -11 13
L L W L D
9 13 3 3 7 14:22 -8 12
W W L D D
10 14 3 3 8 16:23 -7 12
D L W W D
11 14 3 2 9 12:25 -13 11
W L L L L
12 13 2 4 7 10:22 -12 10
L D L D D
13 14 1 6 7 15:26 -11 9
L L D D W
14 13 2 3 8 6:17 -11 9
L D D D L
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