🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
23.07.2026 02:30
Dignity Health Sports Park
Referee: Malik Badawi, USA
Los Angeles Galaxy
Match Timeline
St. Louis City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
42'
L. MacNaughton · Assist: M. Hartel
St. Louis City
🟨
45+2'
Marco Reus
Los Angeles Galaxy
🟨
45+1'
Carlos Garcés
Los Angeles Galaxy
45'
M. Hartel · Assist: T. Totland
St. Louis City
🟨
49'
Carlos Garcés
Los Angeles Galaxy
🟥
49'
Carlos Garcés
Los Angeles Galaxy
🟨
56'
Lukas MacNaughton
St. Louis City
🔄
59'
M. Reus ↔ R. Taylor
Los Angeles Galaxy
🔄
62'
M. Joyner ↔ Rafael Santos
St. Louis City
🔄
62'
E. Lowen ↔ S. Jeong
St. Louis City
🔄
62'
L. MacNaughton ↔ J. Orozco
St. Louis City
🔄
64'
L. Sanabria ↔ I. Parente
Los Angeles Galaxy
🔄
64'
J. Nelson ↔ J. Aude
Los Angeles Galaxy
68'
S. Becher · Assist: M. Hartel
St. Louis City
🟨
71'
Jakob Glesnes
Los Angeles Galaxy
🔄
74'
E. Wynder ↔ M. Yoshida
Los Angeles Galaxy
🔄
74'
J. Paintsil ↔ T. Elgersma
Los Angeles Galaxy
🔄
86'
S. Becher ↔ P. Ault
St. Louis City
🔄
86'
D. Edelman ↔ M. Perez
St. Louis City
86'
T. Elgersma
Los Angeles Galaxy

Los Angeles Galaxy vs St. Louis City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.9%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Los Angeles Galaxy Win 57.9%
Draw 11.1%
St. Louis City Win 30.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Los Angeles Galaxy1.57
St. Louis City1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy
WWDLW
47 GF / 43 GA
St. Louis City St. Louis City
WLDWL
23 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
18
BTTS Yes
11
20
Over 2.5
9
5.17
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 30 matches
St. Louis City St. Louis City 19 matches
Los Angeles Galaxy Statistic St. Louis City
12 Wins 6
8 Draws 5
10 Losses 8
47 Goals For 23
43 Goals Against 30
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
18 BTTS Yes 11
27 Over 1.5 16
20 Over 2.5 9
7 Over 3.5 6
9 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 5
5.17 Shots On Goal 4.33
13.13 Total Shots 14
5.43 Corners 5.87
50.6% Ball Possession 49.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors St. Louis City. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Los Angeles Galaxy expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and St. Louis City in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward St. Louis City having the stronger overall control.

Los Angeles Galaxy Analysis

Los Angeles Galaxy are currently 9 in the standings with 20 points from 15 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, while the 22:22 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Gabriel Pec (5 goals), Joao Klauss (5 goals), M. Reus (4 goals), with creative support from M. Reus (5 assists), Gabriel Pec (4 assists), J. Paintsil (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

St. Louis City Analysis

So far, St. Louis City have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 16 points from 14 matches. The record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 16:20 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Hartel (3 goals), Christopher Durkin (2 goals), B. McSorley (1 goals), with creative support from S. Becher (3 assists), D. Edelman (2 assists), E. Lowen (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Los Angeles Galaxy won 3 times, St. Louis City won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:21 from Los Angeles Galaxy's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.9%)
Predicted formations: Los Angeles Galaxy 4-2-3-1 / St. Louis City 3-4-3
Missing players: Los Angeles Galaxy 4, St. Louis City 3
H2H summary: Los Angeles Galaxy wins 3, draws 4, St. Louis City wins 4

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 14 4 6 53:23 30 46
L W L W W
2 25 13 4 8 32:28 4 43
L W D D L
3 25 12 7 6 49:42 7 43
W W W D L
4 25 12 5 8 44:36 8 41
W W D D L
5 25 11 8 6 42:35 7 41
W D W D W
6 26 11 7 8 41:27 14 40
L W D D D
7 25 11 2 12 33:32 1 35
W D L W L
8 25 9 5 11 47:47 0 32
L D W L D
9 24 8 6 10 42:37 5 30
L L W W L
10 26 7 9 10 31:40 -9 30
D L W L D
11 24 8 5 11 37:39 -2 29
L L D L L
12 25 7 8 10 37:43 -6 29
L L L D W
13 25 7 8 10 32:44 -12 29
W D D W D
14 23 7 7 9 25:30 -5 28
D D D D L
15 24 5 3 16 26:59 -33 18
W L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)