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18.10.2026 15:15
Stade du Moustoir
Referee: M. Bollengier
Lorient
Match Timeline
Monaco
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
52'
T. Minamino ↔ E. Diop
Monaco
🟨
57'
Mohammed Salisu
Monaco
🟨
60'
Nazinho
Monaco
🟨
60'
Denis Zakaria
Monaco
⚽
61'
N. Cadiou
Lorient
🟨
66'
Noah Cadiou
Lorient
🔄
66'
M. Salisu ↔ C. Mawissa
Monaco
🔄
66'
A. Fati ↔ F. Balogun
Monaco
🔄
66'
D. Zakaria ↔ M. Detourbet
Monaco
🔄
71'
I. Balde ↔ M. Kone
Lorient
🔄
74'
M. Abline ↔ M. Biereth
Monaco
🟨
76'
Arsène Kouassi
Lorient
🔄
79'
G. Bernardeau ↔ S. Faye
Lorient
🟨
80'
Christian Mawissa
Monaco

Lorient vs Monaco Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
78.4%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Lorient Win 41.1%
Draw 12.3%
Monaco Win 46.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lorient1.38
Monaco1.67
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lorient Lorient
W L D W L
6 GF / 6 GA
Monaco Monaco
W D W W D
9 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
2
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
7
BTTS Yes
10
7
Over 2.5
9
3.5
Shots on Goal
4.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lorient Lorient 12 matches
Monaco Monaco 16 matches
Lorient Statistic Monaco
6 Wins 11
2 Draws 3
4 Losses 2
18 Goals For 32
14 Goals Against 19
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
7 BTTS Yes 10
8 Over 1.5 14
7 Over 2.5 9
3 Over 3.5 6
5 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 2
3.5 Shots On Goal 4.89
10 Total Shots 11.78
2.5 Corners 3.56
46.7% Ball Possession 49.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Monaco's more proactive style and Lorient's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Monaco. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Monaco carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 14 points while Lorient sit 8 on 8, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lorient expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Monaco in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Monaco having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Lorient Analysis

From their first 6 matches, Lorient have collected 8 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, while the 6:6 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Makengo (1 goals), G. Bernardeau (1 goals), I. Baldé (1 goals), with creative support from P. Katseris (3 assists), J. Makengo (1 assists), K. Kouassi (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Monaco Analysis

Monaco come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 14 points after 6 matches. They have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a 10:5 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Paris Josua Brunner (4 goals), E. Dier (1 goals), Flávio Nazinho (1 goals), with creative support from A. Golovin (3 assists), E. Dier (1 assists), Flávio Nazinho (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lorient won 4 times, Monaco won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:30 from Lorient's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.7%)
Predicted formations: Lorient 3-4-2-1 / Monaco 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Lorient 1, Monaco 3
H2H summary: Lorient wins 4, draws 5, Monaco wins 6

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 5 2 1 16:9 7 17
W W W W W
2 8 5 1 2 18:14 4 16
W L W L W
3 8 4 3 1 11:6 5 15
D D W L W
4 8 4 3 1 11:7 4 15
D L D W D
5 8 4 2 2 13:7 6 14
L W L W D
6 8 4 2 2 13:9 4 14
L W L W D
7 8 4 1 3 16:12 4 13
W W W L D
8 8 4 0 4 18:13 5 12
W W W L L
9 8 3 3 2 7:6 1 12
D W W L D
10 8 3 2 3 8:10 -2 11
W L W W L
11 8 2 4 2 12:11 1 10
D W D W D
12 8 3 1 4 12:18 -6 10
D W L W W
13 8 2 3 3 14:12 2 9
L D W L L
14 8 2 2 4 9:15 -6 8
D L L W D
15 8 1 4 3 11:16 -5 7
D L L W D
16 8 2 1 5 12:18 -6 7
L L L L D
17 8 1 2 5 5:16 -11 5
D L L L L
18 8 0 2 6 8:15 -7 2
L L L L D
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