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RUSSIA › PREMIER LEAGUE
17.10.2026 16:30
RZD Arena

Lokomotiv vs FC Krasnodar Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 72.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
72.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
75.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Lokomotiv Win 23.2%
Draw 4.4%
FC Krasnodar Win 72.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lokomotiv1.56
FC Krasnodar1.53
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lokomotiv Lokomotiv
WWDLW
54 GF / 25 GA
FC Krasnodar FC Krasnodar
WLDWL
39 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.93
Average Goals Scored
1.95
0.89
Average Goals Conceded
1
12
BTTS Yes
11
12
Over 2.5
12
3.4
Shots on Goal
5.1

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lokomotiv Lokomotiv 28 matches
FC Krasnodar FC Krasnodar 20 matches
Lokomotiv Statistic FC Krasnodar
14 Wins 11
7 Draws 6
7 Losses 3
54 Goals For 39
25 Goals Against 20
1.93 Avg Goals Scored 1.95
0.89 Avg Goals Conceded 1
12 BTTS Yes 11
23 Over 1.5 14
12 Over 2.5 12
9 Over 3.5 8
14 Clean Sheets 7
4 Failed To Score 3
3.4 Shots On Goal 5.1
12.7 Total Shots 15.3
3.1 Corners 4.2
50.6% Ball Possession 58%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by FC Krasnodar's more proactive style and Lokomotiv's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Lokomotiv have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring FC Krasnodar. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. FC Krasnodar carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 21 points while Lokomotiv sit 14 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Lokomotiv Analysis

Lokomotiv sit 14 with 7 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats with a 8:11 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Siljanov (1 goals), Z. Bakaev (1 goals), Aleksey Batrakov (1 goals), with creative support from A. Siljanov (1 assists), Z. Bakaev (1 assists), Aleksey Batrakov (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

FC Krasnodar Analysis

Placed 1 with 21 points from 9 outings, FC Krasnodar continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, while the 14:7 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on Nikita Krivtsov (3 goals), Jubal (3 goals), Christian (2 goals), with creative support from Christian (2 assists), L. Olaza (2 assists), D. Vorobjev (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lokomotiv won 4 times, FC Krasnodar won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:23 from Lokomotiv's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Lokomotiv 4-2-3-1 / FC Krasnodar 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Lokomotiv wins 4, draws 6, FC Krasnodar wins 5

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 1 2 15:8 7 22
W W W W W
2 10 6 4 0 18:9 9 22
W W D W D
3 10 7 0 3 22:11 11 21
W W W L W
4 10 6 3 1 16:10 6 21
L D D D W
5 10 6 2 2 17:8 9 20
D W W L D
6 10 2 6 2 12:12 0 12
L D D D W
7 10 2 6 2 11:10 1 12
W D L D D
8 10 3 3 4 14:12 2 12
D L D L W
9 10 4 0 6 15:20 -5 12
L L L W L
10 10 2 6 2 14:15 -1 12
D D W D D
11 10 2 5 3 13:13 0 11
D L W D D
12 10 3 2 5 11:17 -6 11
W L L W L
13 10 2 4 4 13:11 2 10
W D L W L
14 10 1 5 4 11:19 -8 8
L W D D D
15 10 1 2 7 10:25 -15 5
L D L L L
16 10 0 3 7 6:18 -12 3
L L D L L
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - FNL