RUSSIA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
RZD Arena
Referee: A. Frolov
Lokomotiv
Match Timeline
Baltika
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
A. Rudenko
Lokomotiv
VAR
11'
Kevin Andrade
Baltika
🟥
12'
Kevin Andrade
Baltika
🟨
17'
Egor Pogostnov
Lokomotiv
🔄
23'
E. Pogostnov ↔ M. Nenakhov
Lokomotiv
🔄
46'
Derik Lacerda ↔ Y. Kovalev
Baltika
🔄
60'
T. Yenne ↔ C. Offor
Baltika
🔄
60'
M. Petrov ↔ I. Belikov
Baltika
🟨
64'
Zelimkhan Bakaev
Lokomotiv
VAR
64'
Andrey Mendel
Baltika
🟨
65'
Evgeniy Morozov
Lokomotiv
🔄
68'
A. Rudenko ↔ S. Pinyaev
Lokomotiv
🔄
72'
I. Petrov ↔ S. Kovac
Baltika
🔄
72'
A. Mendel ↔ A. Mourid
Baltika
🟨
78'
Dmitry Vorobyev
Lokomotiv
🔄
83'
Z. Bakaev ↔ N. Saltykov
Lokomotiv
🔄
83'
L. Vera ↔ V. Sarveli
Lokomotiv
🟨
84'
Nathan Gassama
Baltika
🟨
90+2'
Mingiyan Beveev
Baltika

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
40%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Lokomotiv Win 67.5%
Draw 0%
Baltika Win 32.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lokomotiv1.37
Baltika1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lokomotiv Lokomotiv
WWDLW
52 GF / 36 GA
Baltika Baltika
WLDWL
37 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.86
Average Goals Scored
1.32
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
0.64
19
BTTS Yes
10
15
Over 2.5
7
5.29
Shots on Goal
4.04

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lokomotiv Lokomotiv 28 matches
Baltika Baltika 28 matches
Lokomotiv Statistic Baltika
13 Wins 11
11 Draws 13
4 Losses 4
52 Goals For 37
36 Goals Against 18
1.86 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 0.64
19 BTTS Yes 10
24 Over 1.5 18
15 Over 2.5 7
9 Over 3.5 5
6 Clean Sheets 14
4 Failed To Score 8
5.29 Shots On Goal 4.04
13.96 Total Shots 12.5
4.39 Corners 3.46
50.2% Ball Possession 46.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Baltika. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lokomotiv expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Baltika in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Baltika having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Lokomotiv Analysis

Lokomotiv come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 50 points from 28 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 11 draws, and 4 losses, while the 52:36 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Batrakov (13 goals), D. Vorobyev (10 goals), A. Rudenko (6 goals), with creative support from A. Batrakov (9 assists), Z. Bakaev (5 assists), N. Komlichenko (4 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 7 wins, 7 draws, and 0 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Baltika Analysis

Placed 5 with 46 points from 28 outings, Baltika continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 11 wins, 13 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 37:18 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by B. Gil (13 goals), Maksim Petrov (7 goals), C. Offor (3 goals), with creative support from Ilya Petrov (4 assists), Ivan Belikov (3 assists), Nathan Gassama (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Lokomotiv won 6 times, Baltika won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:12 from Lokomotiv's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Lokomotiv 4-2-3-1 / Baltika 5-4-1
Missing players: Lokomotiv 2, Baltika 4
H2H summary: Lokomotiv wins 6, draws 4, Baltika wins 1
Stats
Lokomotiv Lokomotiv
Baltika Baltika
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
3
5 Corner Kicks 2
14 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 0
65% Ball Possession 35%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Goal 3
5 Shots off Goal 2
1 Blocked Shots 3
9 Shots insidebox 6
3 Shots outsidebox 2
3 Goalkeeper Saves 5
508 Total passes 274
423 Passes accurate 167
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Lokomotiv
Formation
Baltika
A. Mitryushkin
A. Mitryushkin
A. Silyanov
A. Silyanov
E. Morozov
E. Morozov
E. Pogostnov
E. Pogostnov
Lucas Fasson
Lucas Fasson
D. Prutsev
D. Prutsev
A. Karpukas
A. Karpukas
L. Vera
L. Vera
Z. Bakaev
Z. Bakaev
D. Vorobyev
D. Vorobyev
A. Rudenko
A. Rudenko
E. Lyubakov
E. Lyubakov
E. Anderson
E. Anderson
K. Andrade
K. Andrade
N. Gassama
N. Gassama
S. Varatynov
S. Varatynov
I. Petrov
I. Petrov
A. Mendel
A. Mendel
M. Beveev
M. Beveev
M. Petrov
M. Petrov
Derik Lacerda
Derik Lacerda
T. Yenne
T. Yenne
Lokomotiv 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
A. Mitryushkin
G
45
A. Silyanov
D
85
E. Morozov
🟨 65'
D
59
E. Pogostnov
↓ 23' 🟨 17'
D
3
Lucas Fasson
D
25
D. Prutsev
M
93
A. Karpukas
M
32
L. Vera
↓ 83'
M
7
Z. Bakaev
↓ 83' 🟨 64'
F
10
D. Vorobyev
🟨 78'
F
19
A. Rudenko
⚽ 4' ↓ 68'
F
Substitutes
22
I. Lantratov
G
16
D. Veselov
G
94
A. Timofeev
M
24
M. Nenakhov
↑ 23'
D
9
S. Pinyaev
↑ 68'
M
14
N. Saltykov
↑ 83'
M
2
C. Ramirez
D
8
V. Sarveli
↑ 83'
M
88
M. Shchetinin
M
99
R. Myalkovskiy
F
90
D. Godyaev
M
74
D. Chevardin
D
Baltika 3-4-3
Starting XI
44
E. Lyubakov
G
21
E. Anderson
D
16
K. Andrade
🟥 12'
D
4
N. Gassama
🟨 84'
D
2
S. Varatynov
M
10
I. Petrov
↓ 72'
M
8
A. Mendel
↓ 72'
M
23
M. Beveev
🟨 90+2'
M
73
M. Petrov
↓ 60'
F
18
Derik Lacerda
↓ 46'
F
15
T. Yenne
↓ 60'
F
Substitutes
81
I. Kukushkin
G
36
A. Tsitsilin
G
14
S. Kovac
↑ 72'
M
5
A. Mourid
↑ 72'
M
90
C. Offor
↑ 60'
F
42
V. Pospelov
M
11
Y. Kovalev
↑ 46'
M
69
I. Manelov
F
68
M. Ryadno
D
26
I. Belikov
↑ 60'
D
Last matches: Lokomotiv
18.07.26
Fri
Lokomotiv
Rubin
1
3
L
14.07.26
Fri
Lokomotiv
CSKA Moscow
1
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Lokomotiv
Spartak Moscow
2
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Lokomotiv
Akron
3
0
W
03.07.26
Fri
Lokomotiv
Spartak Kostroma
2
0
W
03.07.26
Fri
Lokomotiv
Znamya Truda
8
0
W
27.06.26
Fri
Lokomotiv
Rodina Moskva
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pre
Lokomotiv
CSKA Moscow
1
3
L
01.05.26
Pre
Lokomotiv
Dynamo
1
1
D
25.04.26
Pre
Lokomotiv
Krylia Sovetov
0
2
L
22.04.26
Pre
Lokomotiv
Zenit
0
0
D
18.04.26
Pre
Lokomotiv
FC Orenburg
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pre
Lokomotiv
Dinamo Makhachkala
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pre
Lokomotiv
Spartak Moscow
1
2
L
22.03.26
Pre
Lokomotiv
Akron
5
1
W
15.03.26
Pre
Lokomotiv
Rubin
0
3
L
09.03.26
Pre
Lokomotiv
Akhmat
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pre
Lokomotiv
Nizhny Novgorod
2
1
W
21.02.26
Fri
Lokomotiv
CSKA Moscow
2
3
L
14.02.26
Fri
Lokomotiv
Pyunik Yerevan
1
1
D
Last matches: Baltika
24.07.26
Pre
Baltika
CSKA Moscow
1
2
L
19.07.26
Fri
Baltika
FC Krasnodar
1
1
D
11.07.26
Fri
Baltika
Tikveš
6
0
W
07.07.26
Fri
Baltika
Tikveš
5
0
W
26.06.26
Fri
Baltika
Akron
1
0
W
26.06.26
Fri
Baltika
Volga Ulyanovsk
3
0
W
17.05.26
Pre
Baltika
Dynamo
1
2
L
02.05.26
Pre
Baltika
Rubin
0
1
L
27.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Akron
0
1
L
23.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Akhmat
1
1
D
19.04.26
Pre
Baltika
FC Krasnodar
2
2
D
11.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Nizhny Novgorod
2
2
D
05.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Dinamo Makhachkala
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pre
Baltika
FC Sochi
4
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Baltika
CSKA Moscow
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pre
Baltika
FC Rostov
1
1
D
27.02.26
Pre
Baltika
Zenit
0
1
L
22.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Krylia Sovetov
1
0
W
18.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Akhmat
2
2
D
18.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Kaisar
2
1
W
H2H: Lokomotiv vs Baltika
10.05.26
H2H
Lokomotiv
Baltika
1
0
W
23.10.25
H2H
Baltika
Lokomotiv
1
2
W
16.08.25
H2H
Baltika
Lokomotiv
1
1
D
13.08.25
H2H
Lokomotiv
Baltika
2
0
W
06.07.24
H2H
Lokomotiv
Baltika
4
1
W
25.05.24
H2H
Baltika
Lokomotiv Moscow
1
3
W
14.03.24
H2H
Lokomotiv Moscow
Baltika
1
1
D
28.11.23
H2H
Baltika
Lokomotiv Moscow
2
2
D
03.09.23
H2H
Lokomotiv Moscow
Baltika
3
2
L
06.07.23
H2H
Lokomotiv Moscow
Baltika
0
1
W
25.09.19
H2H
Baltika
Lokomotiv Moscow
2
2
D
Last matches: Lokomotiv
18.07.26
Fri
Lokomotiv
Rubin
1
3
L
14.07.26
Fri
Lokomotiv
CSKA Moscow
1
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Lokomotiv
Spartak Moscow
2
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Lokomotiv
Akron
3
0
W
03.07.26
Fri
Lokomotiv
Spartak Kostroma
2
0
W
03.07.26
Fri
Lokomotiv
Znamya Truda
8
0
W
27.06.26
Fri
Lokomotiv
Rodina Moskva
0
0
D
01.05.26
Pre
Lokomotiv
Dynamo
1
1
D
22.04.26
Pre
Lokomotiv
Zenit
0
0
D
12.04.26
Pre
Lokomotiv
Dinamo Makhachkala
1
1
D
22.03.26
Pre
Lokomotiv
Akron
5
1
W
09.03.26
Pre
Lokomotiv
Akhmat
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pre
Lokomotiv
Nizhny Novgorod
2
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
Lokomotiv
Pyunik Yerevan
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
Lokomotiv
Dinamo Samarqand
4
0
W
08.02.26
Fri
Lokomotiv
Yelimay Semey
2
0
W
08.02.26
Fri
Lokomotiv
FC Urartu
3
2
W
31.01.26
Fri
Lokomotiv
FC Noah
2
0
W
20.01.26
Fri
Lokomotiv
Chengdu Better City
4
0
W
23.11.25
Pre
Lokomotiv
FC Krasnodar
1
1
D
H2H at home: Lokomotiv
10.05.26
H2H
Lokomotiv
Baltika
1
0
W
13.08.25
H2H
Lokomotiv
Baltika
2
0
W
06.07.24
H2H
Lokomotiv
Baltika
4
1
W
Last matches: Baltika
24.07.26
Pre
Baltika
CSKA Moscow
1
2
L
19.07.26
Fri
Baltika
FC Krasnodar
1
1
D
11.07.26
Fri
Baltika
Tikveš
6
0
W
07.07.26
Fri
Baltika
Tikveš
5
0
W
26.06.26
Fri
Baltika
Akron
1
0
W
23.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Akhmat
1
1
D
19.04.26
Pre
Baltika
FC Krasnodar
2
2
D
05.04.26
Pre
Baltika
Dinamo Makhachkala
2
2
D
07.03.26
Pre
Baltika
FC Rostov
1
1
D
27.02.26
Pre
Baltika
Zenit
0
1
L
22.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Krylia Sovetov
1
0
W
05.02.26
Fri
Baltika
Chelyabinsk
2
0
W
22.11.25
Pre
Baltika
FC Orenburg
0
0
D
26.10.25
Pre
Baltika
Nizhny Novgorod
0
0
D
19.10.25
Pre
Baltika
Rubin
3
0
W
28.09.25
Pre
Baltika
CSKA Moscow
0
1
L
31.08.25
Pre
Baltika
Akron
2
0
W
24.08.25
Pre
Baltika
FC Sochi
2
0
W
09.08.25
Pre
Baltika
Krylia Sovetov
1
1
D
26.07.25
Pre
Baltika
Spartak Moscow
3
0
W
H2H away: Baltika
10.05.26
H2H
Lokomotiv
Baltika
1
0
L
13.08.25
H2H
Lokomotiv
Baltika
2
0
L
06.07.24
H2H
Lokomotiv
Baltika
4
1
L
14.03.24
H2H
Lokomotiv Moscow
Baltika
1
1
D
03.09.23
H2H
Lokomotiv Moscow
Baltika
3
2
L
06.07.23
H2H
Lokomotiv Moscow
Baltika
0
1
W

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 20 8 2 53:19 34 68
W W W W D
2 30 20 6 4 60:23 37 66
W L W W W
3 30 14 11 5 54:39 15 53
L W D L D
4 30 15 7 8 47:39 8 52
D W L W L
5 30 15 6 9 44:33 11 51
W W L D D
6 30 11 13 6 38:21 17 46
L L L L D
7 30 12 9 9 51:40 11 45
W W D W L
8 30 11 10 9 29:30 -1 43
D L W D W
9 30 9 10 11 35:39 -4 37
D D W L D
10 30 8 9 13 25:32 -7 33
L W W L D
11 30 8 8 14 35:50 -15 32
W L W W L
12 30 7 8 15 29:44 -15 29
L W L W W
13 30 6 9 15 35:53 -18 27
L W L L L
14 30 5 11 14 19:37 -18 26
W W D D L
15 30 6 5 19 26:50 -24 23
D L L L L
16 30 6 4 20 29:60 -31 22
D L W L W
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Lokomotiv 2 missing
-
G. Nyamsi
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
A. Batrakov
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
Baltika 4 missing
-
E. Civic
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
M. Borisko
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
A. Filin
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
N. Titkov
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT