BULGARIA FIRST LEAGUE
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Stadion Lokomotiv

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65%
-
BTTS Yes
88%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Lokomotiv Sofia Win 26.7%
Draw 8.3%
Ludogorets Win 65%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lokomotiv Sofia1.26
Ludogorets1.96
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lokomotiv Sofia Lokomotiv Sofia
WWDLW
17 GF / 24 GA
Ludogorets Ludogorets
WLDWL
32 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.21
Average Goals Scored
2.13
1.71
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
10
BTTS Yes
9
8
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lokomotiv Sofia Lokomotiv Sofia 14 matches
Ludogorets Ludogorets 15 matches
Lokomotiv Sofia Statistic Ludogorets
3 Wins 10
5 Draws 4
6 Losses 1
17 Goals For 32
24 Goals Against 20
1.21 Avg Goals Scored 2.13
1.71 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
10 BTTS Yes 9
11 Over 1.5 12
8 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Ludogorets's more proactive style and Lokomotiv Sofia's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Ludogorets carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 16 points while Lokomotiv Sofia sit 14 on 2, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Ludogorets look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Ludogorets.

Lokomotiv Sofia Analysis

With 2 points from 5 games and a place of 14, Lokomotiv Sofia still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 5:10, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ludogorets Analysis

Ludogorets approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 16 points after 6 outings. They have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, with a 11:4 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Lokomotiv Sofia won 1 times, Ludogorets won 8 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:26 from Lokomotiv Sofia's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.7%)
Predicted formations: Lokomotiv Sofia 4-2-3-1 / Ludogorets 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Lokomotiv Sofia wins 1, draws 1, Ludogorets wins 8
Last matches: Lokomotiv Sofia
17.08.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
1
3
L
08.08.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
CSKA 1948
1
3
L
31.07.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Slavia Sofia
1
1
D
25.07.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Levski Sofia
1
2
L
21.07.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
1
1
D
11.07.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Sofia
Teuta Durrës
0
0
D
04.07.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Sofia
Dukagjini
3
3
D
26.06.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Sofia
Drita
2
1
W
22.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Spartak Varna
0
3
L
18.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Slavia Sofia
2
0
W
14.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Beroe
1
1
D
09.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Montana
2
2
D
05.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Botev Vratsa
2
2
D
01.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Dobrudzha
3
0
W
27.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
1
1
D
14.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Botev Vratsa
2
3
L
09.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Beroe
2
1
W
03.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
1
L
27.03.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
1
3
L
21.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
CSKA 1948
2
3
L
Last matches: Ludogorets
22.08.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Slavia Sofia
1
1
D
15.08.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Botev Plovdiv
2
0
W
09.08.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Cherno More Varna
3
2
W
02.08.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Botev Vratsa
2
1
W
30.07.26
UEF
Ludogorets
Hapoel Tel Aviv
2
2
D
27.07.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Dunav Ruse
2
0
W
23.07.26
UEF
Ludogorets
Hapoel Tel Aviv
0
2
L
18.07.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1
0
W
10.07.26
Fri
Ludogorets
Teuta Durrës
1
0
W
10.07.26
Fri
Ludogorets
Septemvri Sofia
1
0
W
04.07.26
Fri
Ludogorets
FC Botosani
2
2
D
26.06.26
Fri
Ludogorets
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
7
4
W
29.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
0
D
25.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
1
0
W
16.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA 1948
0
1
L
13.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Levski Sofia
1
1
D
09.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Levski Sofia
1
0
W
03.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
0
1
L
25.04.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA 1948
1
2
L
15.04.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Arda Kardzhali
0
1
L
H2H: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Ludogorets
07.02.26
H2H
Lokomotiv Sofia
Ludogorets
1
3
L
17.08.25
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Sofia
0
0
D
09.03.25
H2H
Lokomotiv Sofia
Ludogorets
1
2
L
21.09.24
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Sofia
2
0
L
16.03.24
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Sofia
6
0
L
24.09.23
H2H
Lokomotiv Sofia
Ludogorets
1
3
L
21.04.23
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Sofia
1
0
L
01.10.22
H2H
Lokomotiv Sofia
Ludogorets
1
0
W
05.12.21
H2H
Lokomotiv Sofia
Ludogorets
2
4
L
21.08.21
H2H
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Sofia
5
0
L
Last matches: Lokomotiv Sofia
08.08.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
CSKA 1948
1
3
L
25.07.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Levski Sofia
1
2
L
11.07.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Sofia
Teuta Durrës
0
0
D
04.07.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Sofia
Dukagjini
3
3
D
26.06.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Sofia
Drita
2
1
W
18.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Slavia Sofia
2
0
W
14.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Beroe
1
1
D
05.05.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Botev Vratsa
2
2
D
27.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
1
1
D
09.04.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Beroe
2
1
W
17.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
3
0
W
13.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Slavia Sofia
1
1
D
05.03.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Dobrudzha
3
1
W
07.02.26
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Ludogorets
1
3
L
30.01.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Sofia
Sportist Svoge
1
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Sofia
Zorya Luhansk
3
3
D
21.01.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Sofia
Podbrezová
1
0
W
14.01.26
Fri
Lokomotiv Sofia
Radnik Surdulica
0
2
L
06.12.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
3
2
W
28.11.25
Fir
Lokomotiv Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
0
0
D
H2H at home: Lokomotiv Sofia
07.02.26
H2H
Lokomotiv Sofia
Ludogorets
1
3
L
09.03.25
H2H
Lokomotiv Sofia
Ludogorets
1
2
L
24.09.23
H2H
Lokomotiv Sofia
Ludogorets
1
3
L
01.10.22
H2H
Lokomotiv Sofia
Ludogorets
1
0
W
05.12.21
H2H
Lokomotiv Sofia
Ludogorets
2
4
L
Last matches: Ludogorets
09.08.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Cherno More Varna
3
2
W
27.07.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Dunav Ruse
2
0
W
23.07.26
UEF
Ludogorets
Hapoel Tel Aviv
0
2
L
16.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA 1948
0
1
L
09.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Levski Sofia
1
0
W
03.05.26
Fir
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
0
1
L
15.04.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Arda Kardzhali
0
1
L
19.03.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Spartak Varna
5
1
W
09.03.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Montana
3
0
W
26.02.26
UEF
Ludogorets
Ferencvarosi TC
0
2
L
23.02.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Botev Plovdiv
1
2
L
07.02.26
Fir
Ludogorets
Lokomotiv Sofia
3
1
W
22.01.26
UEF
Ludogorets
Rangers
0
1
L
14.01.26
Fri
Ludogorets
Raków Częstochowa
2
2
D
11.01.26
Fri
Ludogorets
Paks
3
2
W
19.12.25
Fir
Ludogorets
Beroe
4
0
W
04.12.25
Fir
Ludogorets
Dobrudzha
2
0
W
23.11.25
Fir
Ludogorets
Septemvri Sofia
2
0
W
06.11.25
UEF
Ludogorets
Ferencvarosi TC
1
3
L
02.11.25
Fir
Ludogorets
Cherno More Varna
0
0
D
H2H away: Ludogorets
07.02.26
H2H
Lokomotiv Sofia
Ludogorets
1
3
W
09.03.25
H2H
Lokomotiv Sofia
Ludogorets
1
2
W
24.09.23
H2H
Lokomotiv Sofia
Ludogorets
1
3
W
01.10.22
H2H
Lokomotiv Sofia
Ludogorets
1
0
L
05.12.21
H2H
Lokomotiv Sofia
Ludogorets
2
4
W

Standings

First League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 1 1 15:7 8 16
W L W W W
2 6 5 1 0 11:4 7 16
D W W W W
3 5 5 0 0 15:2 13 15
W W W W W
4 5 4 1 0 13:3 10 13
W W W W D
5 6 4 1 1 9:4 5 13
W W W L W
6 7 2 2 3 5:10 -5 8
D W W L L
7 6 1 4 1 6:4 2 7
D D W D L
8 6 2 1 3 7:9 -2 7
L L W W L
9 6 2 1 3 8:12 -4 7
L L L W W
10 6 1 1 4 7:13 -6 4
W L L L L
11 6 1 1 4 4:13 -9 4
W L L L L
12 6 1 0 5 5:12 -7 3
L W L L L
13 7 1 0 6 3:10 -7 3
L L L L L
14 5 0 2 3 5:10 -5 2
L L D L D
Play-offs
Play-offs playoffs
Relegation Playoffs