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BULGARIA › FIRST LEAGUE
10.10.2026 14:30
Lokomotiv Stadium
Referee: Piskov·Gero

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.7%
Odds 1.96
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds 2.23
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.7%
1.96 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.91 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
2.23 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
67.1%
1.39 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.10 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Lokomotiv Sofia Win 57.7%
Draw 29.1%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv Win 13.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lokomotiv Sofia1.14
Lokomotiv Plovdiv1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lokomotiv Sofia Lokomotiv Sofia
WWDLW
27 GF / 33 GA
Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv
WLDWL
14 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
0.82
1.65
Average Goals Conceded
0.82
14
BTTS Yes
4
12
Over 2.5
2
4.1
Shots on Goal
3.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lokomotiv Sofia Lokomotiv Sofia 20 matches
Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 17 matches
Lokomotiv Sofia Statistic Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5 Wins 7
7 Draws 3
8 Losses 7
27 Goals For 14
33 Goals Against 14
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 0.82
1.65 Avg Goals Conceded 0.82
14 BTTS Yes 4
16 Over 1.5 10
12 Over 2.5 2
8 Over 3.5 0
4 Clean Sheets 7
3 Failed To Score 7
4.1 Shots On Goal 3.2
10.9 Total Shots 8.9
4.1 Corners 4.1
43.2% Ball Possession 42.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Lokomotiv Plovdiv arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Lokomotiv Plovdiv. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lokomotiv Sofia expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Lokomotiv Plovdiv in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lokomotiv Plovdiv having the stronger overall control.

Lokomotiv Sofia Analysis

So far, Lokomotiv Sofia have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 7 points from 10 matches. Their overall return of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 11:18 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv Analysis

With 7 points from 10 games and a place of 12, Lokomotiv Plovdiv still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 5:13, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Lokomotiv Sofia won 1 times, Lokomotiv Plovdiv won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:18 from Lokomotiv Sofia's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.15 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (86.8%)
Predicted formations: Lokomotiv Sofia 4-2-3-1 / Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Lokomotiv Sofia wins 1, draws 5, Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins 7

Standings

A PFG
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 8 1 0 21:4 17 25
D W W W W
2 10 7 3 0 24:7 17 24
D W W D W
3 9 7 2 0 16:7 9 23
W W D D W
4 10 7 1 2 19:10 9 22
W W L W L
5 10 5 2 3 15:12 3 17
D L L W W
6 10 5 1 4 16:14 2 16
W W W L L
7 10 2 5 3 9:8 1 11
L D W L D
8 10 2 4 4 10:15 -5 10
L D D D L
9 10 2 3 5 9:19 -10 9
D D W L W
10 10 2 2 6 8:18 -10 8
L L L D W
11 10 1 4 5 11:18 -7 7
W L D L D
12 10 2 1 7 5:13 -8 7
D L W L L
13 10 1 3 6 11:20 -9 6
D D L L W
14 10 1 2 7 10:19 -9 5
D L L D L
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