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BULGARIA › FIRST LEAGUE
20.09.2026 14:45
Stadion Lokomotiv
Referee: Marijan Grebencharski, Bulgaria
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Match Timeline
CSKA Sofia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
10'
P. Umarbaev · Assist: J. Burban
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
⚽
18'
I. Pittas · Assist: Pastor
CSKA Sofia
🟨
43'
Lucas Ryan
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔄
46'
D. Mrankov ↔ D. Ali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🟨
67'
Burban
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🟨
68'
Parvizdzhon Umarbaev
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔄
74'
T. Ivanov ↔ Leo Pereira
CSKA Sofia
🔄
75'
E. Ali ↔ M. Trdan
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔄
75'
C. Longville ↔ R. Leijten
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔄
78'
P. Umarbaev ↔ J. Lamy
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔄
83'
Pastor ↔ B. Cotter
CSKA Sofia
🟨
85'
Barry Cotter
CSKA Sofia
🔄
88'
J. Eto'o ↔ L. Godoy
CSKA Sofia
🟨
90+3'
Max Ebong
CSKA Sofia

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 48.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
48.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Lokomotiv Plovdiv Win 35.8%
Draw 15.8%
CSKA Sofia Win 48.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.91
CSKA Sofia1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv
WWDLW
11 GF / 13 GA
CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia
WLDWL
49 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
0.73
Average Goals Scored
1.88
0.87
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
3
BTTS Yes
13
2
Over 2.5
18
2
Shots on Goal
3.76

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 15 matches
CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia 26 matches
Lokomotiv Plovdiv Statistic CSKA Sofia
6 Wins 15
2 Draws 5
7 Losses 6
11 Goals For 49
13 Goals Against 31
0.73 Avg Goals Scored 1.88
0.87 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
3 BTTS Yes 13
8 Over 1.5 22
2 Over 2.5 18
0 Over 3.5 10
6 Clean Sheets 9
7 Failed To Score 8
2 Shots On Goal 3.76
5.44 Total Shots 5.06
2.89 Corners 3.29
24% Ball Possession 26.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around CSKA Sofia's more proactive style and Lokomotiv Plovdiv's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lokomotiv Plovdiv expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and CSKA Sofia in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward CSKA Sofia having the stronger overall control. CSKA Sofia look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. CSKA Sofia carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 17 points while Lokomotiv Plovdiv sit 11 on 6, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward CSKA Sofia.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv Analysis

With 6 points from 8 games and a place of 11, Lokomotiv Plovdiv still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 0 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 4:10 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

CSKA Sofia Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 17 points from 7 games, CSKA Sofia bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 5 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a 17:5 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lokomotiv Plovdiv won 6 times, CSKA Sofia won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:16 from Lokomotiv Plovdiv's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.2%)
Predicted formations: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4-2-3-1 / CSKA Sofia 4-3-3
H2H summary: Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins 6, draws 3, CSKA Sofia wins 6

Standings

A PFG
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 9 1 0 23:4 19 28
W D W W W
2 11 8 3 0 27:9 18 27
W D W W D
3 10 8 2 0 21:7 14 26
W W W D D
4 11 7 1 3 21:13 8 22
L W W L W
5 11 6 1 4 17:14 3 19
W W W W L
6 11 5 2 4 15:17 -2 17
L D L L W
7 11 3 4 4 11:15 -4 13
W L D D D
8 11 2 5 4 9:9 0 11
L L D W L
9 11 2 3 6 9:20 -11 9
L D D W L
10 11 2 2 7 13:21 -8 8
W D L L D
11 11 2 2 7 6:14 -8 8
D D L W L
12 11 1 5 5 12:19 -7 8
D W L D L
13 11 2 2 7 10:21 -11 8
L L L L D
14 11 1 3 7 11:22 -11 6
L D D L L
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