BULGARIA FIRST LEAGUE
06.09.2026 16:00
Stadion Lokomotiv
Referee: V. Mitrev
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Match Timeline
Cherno More Varna
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
21'
R. Leijten · Assist: P. Umarbaev
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔄
46'
M. Barandas ↔ A. Kolev
Cherno More Varna
🟨
55'
Sevi Idriz
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🟨
68'
Aleksandar Kolev
Cherno More Varna
🔄
70'
E. Nyagolov ↔ Joao Bandaro
Cherno More Varna
🔄
70'
I. Tasev ↔ I. Bounaas
Cherno More Varna
🟨
71'
Todor Pavlov
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔄
77'
R. Leijten ↔ D. Ali
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔄
77'
P. Umarbaev ↔ M. Trdan
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔄
83'
D. Teles ↔ J. Padilla
Cherno More Varna
🔄
83'
V. Panayotov ↔ P. Andreev
Cherno More Varna
🟨
87'
Lucas Ryan
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🟨
87'
Celso Sidney
Cherno More Varna
🔄
89'
I. Ivanov ↔ A. Velev
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔄
89'
M. Petrovic ↔ A. Chindris
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🟨
90+1'
Asen Donchev
Cherno More Varna

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 46.1%
Odds 2.73
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.48
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
46.1%
2.73
BTTS Yes
62.8%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.48
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
2.38
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Lokomotiv Plovdiv Win 46.1%
Draw 16.3%
Cherno More Varna Win 37.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.93
Cherno More Varna1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv
WWDLW
10 GF / 11 GA
Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna
WLDWL
26 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
0.77
Average Goals Scored
1.37
0.85
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
3
BTTS Yes
8
2
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 13 matches
Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 19 matches
Lokomotiv Plovdiv Statistic Cherno More Varna
5 Wins 8
2 Draws 4
6 Losses 7
10 Goals For 26
11 Goals Against 22
0.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.37
0.85 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
3 BTTS Yes 8
7 Over 1.5 11
2 Over 2.5 9
0 Over 3.5 6
5 Clean Sheets 7
6 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Cherno More Varna. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv Analysis

Lokomotiv Plovdiv approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 3 points from 7 matches. Their record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 3:10, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cherno More Varna Analysis

Cherno More Varna approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 4 points from 6 matches. Their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 7:13, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lokomotiv Plovdiv won 5 times, Cherno More Varna won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:18 from Lokomotiv Plovdiv's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.8%)
Predicted formations: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4-2-3-1 / Cherno More Varna 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins 5, draws 4, Cherno More Varna wins 6

Standings

A PFG
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 8 1 0 21:4 17 25
D W W W W
2 10 7 3 0 24:7 17 24
D W W D W
3 9 7 2 0 16:7 9 23
W W D D W
4 10 7 1 2 19:10 9 22
W W L W L
5 10 5 2 3 15:12 3 17
D L L W W
6 10 5 1 4 16:14 2 16
W W W L L
7 10 2 5 3 9:8 1 11
L D W L D
8 10 2 4 4 10:15 -5 10
L D D D L
9 10 2 3 5 9:19 -10 9
D D W L W
10 10 2 2 6 8:18 -10 8
L L L D W
11 10 1 4 5 11:18 -7 7
W L D L D
12 10 2 1 7 5:13 -8 7
D L W L L
13 10 1 3 6 11:20 -9 6
D D L L W
14 10 1 2 7 10:19 -9 5
D L L D L
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