ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
09.05.2026 11:30
Anfield
Referee: C. Pawson
Liverpool
Match Timeline
Chelsea
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
6'
R. Gravenberch · Assist: R. Ngumoha
Liverpool
35'
E. Fernandez
Chelsea
VAR
50'
Cole Palmer
Chelsea
🔄
63'
Andrey Santos ↔ R. James
Chelsea
🟨
67'
Jorrel Hato
Chelsea
🔄
67'
R. Ngumoha ↔ A. Isak
Liverpool
🟨
73'
Enzo Fernández
Chelsea
🔄
77'
C. Gakpo ↔ F. Chiesa
Liverpool
🔄
77'
I. Konate ↔ J. Gomez
Liverpool
🟨
83'
Marc Cucurella
Chelsea
🟨
88'
Joe Gomez
Liverpool
🟨
89'
Moisés Caicedo
Chelsea
🟨
90+4'
Alexis Mac Allister
Liverpool

Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Liverpool Win 66.5%
Draw 4.1%
Chelsea Win 29.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Liverpool1.64
Chelsea1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
Liverpool Liverpool
WWDLW
93 GF / 66 GA
Chelsea Chelsea
WLDWL
94 GF / 69 GA
Key Stats
1.82
Average Goals Scored
1.88
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
28
BTTS Yes
29
32
Over 2.5
35
5.39
Shots on Goal
5.12

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Liverpool Liverpool 51 matches
Chelsea Chelsea 50 matches
Liverpool Statistic Chelsea
27 Wins 23
7 Draws 10
17 Losses 17
93 Goals For 94
66 Goals Against 69
1.82 Avg Goals Scored 1.88
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
28 BTTS Yes 29
41 Over 1.5 42
32 Over 2.5 35
18 Over 3.5 21
16 Clean Sheets 15
9 Failed To Score 8
5.39 Shots On Goal 5.12
16.37 Total Shots 14.34
6.12 Corners 6.16
58% Ball Possession 58.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Chelsea. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Chelsea arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Liverpool Analysis

Liverpool come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 58 points after 35 matches. The return of 17 wins, 7 draws, and 11 defeats, together with goals at 59:47, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through H. Ekitike (11 goals), C. Gakpo (7 goals), M. Salah (7 goals), with creative support from M. Salah (6 assists), C. Gakpo (5 assists), D. Szoboszlai (5 assists), while their defending has remained quite vulnerable. At home, their record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Chelsea Analysis

Chelsea approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 48 points from 35 matches. Across the season they have posted 13 wins, 9 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 54:48 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Joao Pedro (15 goals), C. Palmer (9 goals), E. Fernandez (8 goals), with creative support from Joao Pedro (5 assists), Reece James (5 assists), P. Neto (4 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Liverpool won 4 times, Chelsea won 3 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:13 from Liverpool's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.9%)
Predicted formations: Liverpool 4-2-3-1 / Chelsea 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Liverpool 9, Chelsea 7
H2H summary: Liverpool wins 4, draws 8, Chelsea wins 3

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship