08.06.2026 22:00
Estadio Belvedere
Referee: K. Fontes
Liverpool Montevideo
Match Timeline
Cerro Largo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
10'
Matías Fracchia
Cerro Largo
🟨
27'
Alexander Hernandez
Cerro Largo
🟨
34'
Santiago Strasorier
Liverpool Montevideo
🟨
60'
Lucas Correa
Cerro Largo
🔄
64'
G. Viera ↔ A. Pandiani
Cerro Largo
🟨
67'
Axel Pandiani
Cerro Largo
🔄
68'
D. Romero ↔ K. Lewis
Liverpool Montevideo
🔄
68'
R. Bentancourt ↔ R. Machado
Liverpool Montevideo
🔄
74'
R. M. Degregorio ↔ F. Barcelo
Liverpool Montevideo
🔄
78'
M. Garcia ↔ N. Ramos
Cerro Largo
🔄
78'
M. Anasco ↔ F. Sellecchia
Cerro Largo
🔄
81'
M. Rabunal ↔ D. Zabala
Liverpool Montevideo
🔄
81'
F. Martinez ↔ E. Olivera
Liverpool Montevideo
🔄
86'
S. Marcel ↔ F. Alvez
Cerro Largo
🔄
86'
S. Assis ↔ E. Jourdan
Cerro Largo

Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.6%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 56.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 54.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.6%
- ▥
BTTS No
56.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
54.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Liverpool Montevideo Win 53.6%
Draw 17.5%
Cerro Largo Win 29%
Expected Goals (xG)
Liverpool Montevideo1.13
Cerro Largo1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo
WWDLW
23 GF / 22 GA
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo
WLDWL
21 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.15
Average Goals Scored
1.17
1.1
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
9
BTTS Yes
6
8
Over 2.5
7
3.5
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo 20 matches
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 18 matches
Liverpool Montevideo Statistic Cerro Largo
6 Wins 7
7 Draws 2
7 Losses 9
23 Goals For 21
22 Goals Against 20
1.15 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
1.1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
9 BTTS Yes 6
13 Over 1.5 11
8 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 4
8 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 7
3.5 Shots On Goal 0
11.5 Total Shots 0
4 Corners 0
56% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Liverpool Montevideo's more proactive style and Cerro Largo's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Cerro Largo. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Liverpool Montevideo expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Cerro Largo in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cerro Largo having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Liverpool Montevideo Analysis

Liverpool Montevideo sit 9 with 20 points after 15 league matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 20:18 reflects poor form . Their attacking weight is carried by F. Martinez (7 goals), D. Romero (3 goals), F. Barcelo (3 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Cerro Largo Analysis

From their first 15 matches, Cerro Largo have collected 17 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Their overall return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 16:19 reflects poor form . Their attacking weight is carried by T. Correa (5 goals), A. Pandiani (4 goals), D. Daguerre (3 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Liverpool Montevideo won 9 times, Cerro Largo won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:11 from Liverpool Montevideo's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.6%)
Predicted formations: Liverpool Montevideo 3-4-1-2 / Cerro Largo 4-4-2
H2H summary: Liverpool Montevideo wins 9, draws 2, Cerro Largo wins 4

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 17 5 6 46:23 23 55
W W W L D
2 28 16 5 7 51:32 19 53
W W W W W
3 29 14 11 4 35:22 13 53
D W L W D
4 29 15 7 7 44:27 17 52
W L W L D
5 29 14 4 11 43:38 5 46
W D D W W
6 29 12 8 9 36:35 1 44
D D L W L
7 29 11 10 8 37:27 10 43
D L W D W
8 29 10 8 11 31:37 -6 38
L D D L L
9 29 9 8 12 35:39 -4 35
W D D W W
10 29 9 7 13 37:38 -1 34
L L L L L
11 29 8 9 12 28:32 -4 33
L D L D D
12 29 7 11 11 25:33 -8 32
L W D L D
13 29 9 5 15 23:43 -20 32
L W W D L
14 29 8 6 15 28:40 -12 30
L L L D W
15 29 4 14 11 24:38 -14 26
D D L L D
16 29 7 4 18 23:42 -19 25
W L W W L
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