NORWAY › ELITESERIEN
03.05.2026 12:30
Åråsen
Referee: Mohammad Usman Aslam, Norway
Lillestrom
Match Timeline
Sarpsborg 08 FF
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
4'
M. Karlsbakk
Lillestrom
⚽
11'
G. Nyheim · Assist: Felix Va
Lillestrom
🟨
29'
Ulrik Jenssen
Lillestrom
🔄
60'
J. Berget ↔ N. Williams
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
60'
V. E. Halvorsen ↔ A. Nibe
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🟨
61'
Menno Koch
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
69'
K. Arierhi ↔ C. Jebara
Lillestrom
🟨
75'
Anders Hiim
Sarpsborg 08 FF
⚽
76'
C. Jebara · Assist: Felix Va
Lillestrom
🔄
80'
S. Sorli ↔ M. Svenningsen Gronn
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
80'
M. Koch ↔ M. Odegaard
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
80'
S. Christiansen ↔ B. Gueye
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
81'
M. Karlsbakk ↔ H. Woxen
Lillestrom
🔄
81'
S. Ottesen ↔ Y. Paintsil
Lillestrom
🔄
90+1'
S. Drammeh ↔ L. Alperud
Lillestrom
⚽
90'
S. Drammeh
Lillestrom

Lillestrom vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
77.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Lillestrom Win 61.9%
Draw 11.9%
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win 26.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lillestrom1.75
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.55
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lillestrom Lillestrom
WWDLW
34 GF / 23 GA
Sarpsborg 08 FF Sarpsborg 08 FF
WLDWL
26 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
2.13
Average Goals Scored
1.63
1.44
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
9
BTTS Yes
8
9
Over 2.5
8
4.83
Shots on Goal
4.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lillestrom Lillestrom 16 matches
Sarpsborg 08 FF Sarpsborg 08 FF 16 matches
Lillestrom Statistic Sarpsborg 08 FF
7 Wins 8
4 Draws 3
5 Losses 5
34 Goals For 26
23 Goals Against 19
2.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
1.44 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
9 BTTS Yes 8
11 Over 1.5 13
9 Over 2.5 8
8 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 3
4.83 Shots On Goal 4.5
13.5 Total Shots 11.5
5 Corners 5.5
51.5% Ball Possession 45.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Lillestrom's more proactive style and Sarpsborg 08 FF's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Lillestrom arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 13 points compared to Sarpsborg 08 FF in 13 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sarpsborg 08 FF. Sarpsborg 08 FF arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lillestrom expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Sarpsborg 08 FF in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sarpsborg 08 FF having the stronger overall control.

Lillestrom Analysis

Lillestrom come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 13 points after 6 matches. With 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 9:4, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by M. Karlsbakk (3 goals), T. Olsen (3 goals), Felix Va (2 goals), with creative support from T. Olsen (1 assists), Felix Va (1 assists), Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Sarpsborg 08 FF Analysis

Sarpsborg 08 FF approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 5 points from 6 matches. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 5:6 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Sher (1 goals), C. Niyukuri (1 goals), D. Karlsbakk (1 goals), with creative support from S. Sorli (1 assists), B. Utvik (1 assists), M. Opoku (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Lillestrom won 6 times, Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:14 from Lillestrom's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.77 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.1%)
Predicted formations: Lillestrom 4-1-4-1 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-4-2
Missing players: Lillestrom 4, Sarpsborg 08 FF 6
H2H summary: Lillestrom wins 6, draws 3, Sarpsborg 08 FF wins 4

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 16 2 3 54:20 34 50
W W D W L
2 21 16 2 3 53:19 34 50
L W W W W
3 21 11 5 5 40:29 11 38
W L L D L
4 21 11 3 7 44:32 12 36
L W W W W
5 21 10 3 8 39:30 9 33
W W W L W
6 21 10 2 9 28:29 -1 32
L W W L D
7 21 9 2 10 39:32 7 29
W L L D W
8 21 8 4 9 25:32 -7 28
D D L W W
9 21 6 7 8 24:29 -5 25
L D D D L
10 21 7 4 10 25:35 -10 25
W W L L D
11 21 6 5 10 21:27 -6 23
W L D D W
12 21 6 5 10 34:43 -9 23
D L D L D
13 21 6 5 10 29:44 -15 23
L L L D L
14 21 4 9 8 33:46 -13 21
W L W L D
15 21 5 4 12 21:40 -19 19
L L W D L
16 21 4 4 13 22:44 -22 16
L W L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen