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NORWAY › ELITESERIEN
11.10.2026 17:15
Åråsen Stadion
Referee: Espen Eskas
Lillestrom
Match Timeline
Molde
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
10'
Sander Hestetun Kilen · Assist: Kristian Lonebu
Molde
⚽
16'
Felix Vá · Assist: Daniel Bassi
Lillestrom
🟨
24'
Sondre Granaas
Molde
⚽
26'
Emil Breivik · Assist: Daniel Daga
Molde
🟨
37'
Sander Hestetun Kilen
Molde
🔄
45'
Lars Ranger ↔ Sturla Ottesen
Lillestrom
🔄
45'
Sander Hestetun Kilen ↔ Mats Møller Dæhli
Molde
🟨
50'
Martin Linnes
Molde
🔄
66'
Frederik Elkaer ↔ Winston Robin Yaw Paintsil
Lillestrom
🔄
66'
Daniel Bassi ↔ Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Lillestrom
🔄
67'
Eirik Haugan ↔ Niklas Ödegard
Molde
🔄
67'
Kristian Lonebu ↔ Trent Kone-Doherty
Molde
🔄
67'
Martin Linnes ↔ Viktor Bender
Molde
🟨
80'
Daniel Daga
Molde
🔄
80'
Eric Kitolano ↔ Henrik Molvaer Melland
Lillestrom
🔄
80'
Daniel Daga ↔ Birk Risa
Molde
⚽
87'
Sander Moen Foss
Lillestrom
🔄
87'
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim ↔ Yildren Ibrahimaj
Lillestrom

Lillestrom vs Molde Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65.7%
Odds 2.54
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.36
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.40
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65.7%
2.54 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.36 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.40 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.15 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Lillestrom Win 29.6%
Draw 4.7%
Molde Win 65.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lillestrom1.57
Molde1.82
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lillestrom Lillestrom
WWDLW
61 GF / 56 GA
Molde Molde
WLDWL
63 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.65
Average Goals Scored
2.03
1.51
Average Goals Conceded
1.45
20
BTTS Yes
22
22
Over 2.5
21
4.04
Shots on Goal
5.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lillestrom Lillestrom 37 matches
Molde Molde 31 matches
Lillestrom Statistic Molde
15 Wins 15
6 Draws 6
16 Losses 10
61 Goals For 63
56 Goals Against 45
1.65 Avg Goals Scored 2.03
1.51 Avg Goals Conceded 1.45
20 BTTS Yes 22
30 Over 1.5 26
22 Over 2.5 21
14 Over 3.5 13
9 Clean Sheets 6
11 Failed To Score 4
4.04 Shots On Goal 5.67
11.92 Total Shots 15.1
5.58 Corners 5.57
52.4% Ball Possession 59.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Molde's more proactive style and Lillestrom's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lillestrom expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Molde in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Molde having the stronger overall control. Molde look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Molde.

Lillestrom Analysis

Lillestrom are currently 6 in the standings with 32 points from 21 matches. The record of 10 wins, 2 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 28:29 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Vá (4 goals), G. Nyheim (4 goals), Markus Karlsbakk (4 goals), with creative support from Vá (5 assists), Y. Ibrahimaj (2 assists), F. Elkær (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Molde Analysis

Molde come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 36 points after 21 matches. The return of 11 wins, 3 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 44:32, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through Eirik Hestad (7 goals), F. Gulbrandsen (6 goals), Trent Toure Kone Doherty (6 goals), with creative support from E. Breivik (8 assists), S. Granaas (4 assists), J. Abdulai (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Lillestrom won 3 times, Molde won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:24 from Lillestrom's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.77 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.3%)
Predicted formations: Lillestrom 4-1-4-1 / Molde 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Lillestrom 2, Molde 6
H2H summary: Lillestrom wins 3, draws 2, Molde wins 8

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 17 2 3 56:20 36 53
W W W D W
2 22 17 2 3 56:20 36 53
W L W W W
3 22 11 6 5 41:30 11 39
D W L L D
4
Molde Away
21 11 3 7 44:32 12 36
L W W W W
5 22 10 4 8 40:31 9 34
D W W W L
6 21 10 2 9 28:29 -1 32
L W W L D
7 22 9 2 11 39:34 5 29
L W L L D
8 22 8 5 9 26:33 -7 29
D D D L W
9 21 6 7 8 24:29 -5 25
L D D D L
10 21 7 4 10 25:35 -10 25
W W L L D
11 22 6 6 10 22:28 -6 24
D W L D D
12 21 6 5 10 34:43 -9 23
D L D L D
13 21 6 5 10 29:44 -15 23
L L L D L
14 21 4 9 8 33:46 -13 21
W L W L D
15 22 5 4 13 22:43 -21 19
L L L W D
16 21 4 4 13 22:44 -22 16
L W L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen