FRANCE › LIGUE 1
17.05.2026 19:00
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Referee: W. Delajod
Lille
Match Timeline
Auxerre
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
24'
Sinaly Diomandé
Auxerre
⚽
32'
L. Sinayoko
Auxerre
🟨
40'
Hakon Arnar Haraldsson
Lille
🟨
43'
Nathan Ngoy
Lille
🔄
46'
N. Mukau ↔ O. Giroud
Lille
🔄
46'
N. Bentaleb ↔ E. Mbappe
Lille
🔄
46'
R. Perraud ↔ C. Verdonk
Lille
🟨
60'
Benjamin André
Lille
🔄
62'
F. Correia ↔ O. Sahraoui
Lille
🟨
67'
Danny Namaso
Auxerre
🔄
72'
D. Namaso ↔ J. Casimir
Auxerre
🟨
81'
Donovan Léon
Auxerre
🔄
82'
H. Haraldsson ↔ G. Perrin
Lille
🔄
82'
S. Mara ↔ M. Senaya
Auxerre
⚽
90'
L. Sinayoko · Assist: G. Mensah
Auxerre

Lille vs Auxerre Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 67.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
67.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Lille Win 79.9%
Draw 0%
Auxerre Win 20.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lille1.41
Auxerre1.01
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lille Lille
WWDLW
68 GF / 50 GA
Auxerre Auxerre
WLDWL
33 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
0.97
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
17
BTTS Yes
15
18
Over 2.5
16
4.62
Shots on Goal
3.56

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lille Lille 47 matches
Auxerre Auxerre 34 matches
Lille Statistic Auxerre
24 Wins 7
7 Draws 10
16 Losses 17
68 Goals For 33
50 Goals Against 46
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 0.97
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
17 BTTS Yes 15
28 Over 1.5 21
18 Over 2.5 16
9 Over 3.5 9
18 Clean Sheets 8
14 Failed To Score 16
4.62 Shots On Goal 3.56
13.36 Total Shots 10.97
5.85 Corners 4.91
56% Ball Possession 44.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Lille's more proactive style and Auxerre's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Lille arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 61 points compared to Auxerre in 15 on 31, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Auxerre. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lille expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Auxerre in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Auxerre having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Lille Analysis

Lille come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 61 points after 33 matches. The return of 18 wins, 7 draws, and 8 defeats, together with goals at 52:35, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through H. Haraldsson (8 goals), M. Fernandez-Pardo (8 goals), O. Giroud (7 goals), with creative support from M. Fernandez-Pardo (5 assists), F. Correia (5 assists), R. Perraud (4 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, they have managed 8 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Auxerre Analysis

Auxerre sit 15 with 31 points after 33 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 10 draws, and 16 defeats, and the 32:44 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on L. Sinayoko (10 goals), Bryan Okoh (3 goals), D. Namaso (3 goals), with creative support from L. Sinayoko (4 assists), D. Namaso (3 assists), S. Mara (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Lille won 6 times, Auxerre won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:14 from Lille's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Lille 4-2-3-1 / Auxerre 4-3-3
Missing players: Lille 3, Auxerre 6
H2H summary: Lille wins 6, draws 4, Auxerre wins 2

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3
Lille Home
34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
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