ECUADOR LIGA PRO
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Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 45.9%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 61.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
45.9%
-
BTTS No
61.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Libertad Win 39.8%
Draw 14.3%
Universidad Catolica Win 45.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Libertad1.02
Universidad Catolica1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Libertad Libertad
WWDLW
24 GF / 26 GA
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica
WLDWL
43 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.04
Average Goals Scored
1.65
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1
10
BTTS Yes
12
10
Over 2.5
12
3.57
Shots on Goal
4.6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Libertad Libertad 23 matches
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica 26 matches
Libertad Statistic Universidad Catolica
8 Wins 12
6 Draws 6
9 Losses 8
24 Goals For 43
26 Goals Against 26
1.04 Avg Goals Scored 1.65
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1
10 BTTS Yes 12
14 Over 1.5 18
10 Over 2.5 12
4 Over 3.5 8
8 Clean Sheets 11
8 Failed To Score 5
3.57 Shots On Goal 4.6
10.43 Total Shots 13.8
3.52 Corners 4.68
45.2% Ball Possession 58.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Universidad Catolica's more proactive style and Libertad's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Universidad Catolica having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Universidad Catolica. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Libertad Analysis

From their first 23 matches, Libertad have collected 30 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses, while the 24:26 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form and are on a winning streak. Going forward they rely heavily on Vilington Branda (5 goals), Gabriel Cortez (4 goals), Antony Chére (4 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Cortez (4 assists), J. Guisamano (2 assists), Enrique Caicedo (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Universidad Catolica Analysis

Universidad Catolica come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 39 points after 23 matches. They have recorded 11 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, with a 38:19 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on José Fajardo (7 goals), Byron Palacios (4 goals), Emiliano Clavijo (4 goals), with creative support from Mauro Díaz (7 assists), Eddy Mejía (2 assists), Jhon Chancellor (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Libertad won 2 times, Universidad Catolica won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:10 from Libertad's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.22 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.7%)
Predicted formations: Libertad - / Universidad Catolica 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Libertad wins 2, draws 5, Universidad Catolica wins 2
Last matches: Libertad
01.08.26
Lig
Libertad
Orense SC
3
0
W
27.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
2
0
W
21.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Delfin SC
1
0
W
19.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
15.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
12.07.26
Lig
Libertad
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
04.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
3
L
30.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
2
L
23.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Independiente del Valle
3
2
W
16.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
10.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Emelec
1
1
D
02.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Aucas
3
2
W
26.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Macara
0
3
L
21.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
18.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
0
2
L
12.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Orense SC
1
2
L
07.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
2
2
D
21.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Delfin SC
0
0
D
19.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
13.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
Last matches: Universidad Catolica
01.08.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
5
0
W
27.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
22.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Barcelona SC
2
1
W
18.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca
2
0
W
15.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
10.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Leones del Norte
0
1
L
06.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Mushuc Runa SC
2
3
L
31.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Emelec
0
1
L
23.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Orense SC
2
1
W
16.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Delfin SC
2
2
D
09.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Aucas
1
2
L
01.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Independiente del Valle
2
3
L
27.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Manta FC
0
1
L
24.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Macara
4
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
2
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
2
0
W
09.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Emelec
1
1
D
04.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Guayaquil City FC
4
1
W
22.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
17.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca
1
0
W
H2H: Libertad vs Universidad Catolica
18.04.26
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
2
0
L
21.11.25
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
1
1
D
19.10.25
H2H
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D
16.08.25
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
1
1
D
29.04.25
H2H
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
3
1
W
10.08.24
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
1
2
W
12.03.24
H2H
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
0
1
L
07.11.23
H2H
Universidad Catolica
Libertad
0
0
D
27.05.23
H2H
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
2
2
D
Last matches: Libertad
01.08.26
Lig
Libertad
Orense SC
3
0
W
21.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Delfin SC
1
0
W
15.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
04.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
3
L
16.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
02.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Aucas
3
2
W
21.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
07.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
2
2
D
19.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
08.03.26
Lig
Libertad
LDU de Quito
2
1
W
24.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
0
W
H2H at home: Libertad
19.10.25
H2H
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D
29.04.25
H2H
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
3
1
W
12.03.24
H2H
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
0
1
L
27.05.23
H2H
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
2
2
D
Last matches: Universidad Catolica
27.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
18.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Deportivo Cuenca
2
0
W
10.07.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Leones del Norte
0
1
L
31.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Emelec
0
1
L
23.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Orense SC
2
1
W
09.05.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Aucas
1
2
L
27.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Manta FC
0
1
L
12.04.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Tecnico Universitario
2
0
W
22.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
15.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
Universidad Catolica
Mushuc Runa SC
0
0
D
06.02.26
CON
Universidad Catolica
Juventud
1
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
Universidad Catolica
Sporting Cristal
1
3
L
H2H away: Universidad Catolica
19.10.25
H2H
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D
29.04.25
H2H
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
3
1
L
12.03.24
H2H
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
0
1
W
27.05.23
H2H
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
2
2
D

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 19 1 3 56:22 34 58
W W W W W
2 23 11 6 6 38:19 19 39
W D W W W
3 23 11 5 7 30:23 7 38
W W W L W
4 23 11 5 7 26:25 1 38
W L L W L
5 23 9 8 6 24:18 6 35
D L L W D
6 23 10 5 8 23:18 5 35
W W D L L
7 23 8 8 7 24:22 2 32
D W D W D
8 23 9 4 10 21:28 -7 31
L W L L D
9 23 8 6 9 24:26 -2 30
W W W L W
10 23 7 7 9 29:34 -5 28
W L D W L
11 23 7 7 9 20:25 -5 28
L D D W D
12 23 7 5 11 27:35 -8 26
L L W L L
13 23 8 2 13 20:29 -9 26
L W L L L
14 23 7 7 9 19:28 -9 25
L L D L W
15 23 6 5 12 14:23 -9 23
L L L W W
16 23 3 5 15 9:29 -20 14
L L D L L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs