ECUADOR LIGA PRO
10.08.2026 21:30
Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne
Referee: O. Contreras
Libertad
Match Timeline
Universidad Catolica
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
15'
Luis Cangá
Universidad Catolica
VAR
36'
Antony Chére
Libertad
40'
V. Branda · Assist: C. Valencia
Libertad
🟨
41'
Facundo Martinez
Universidad Catolica
🟨
45+5'
Mauro Díaz
Universidad Catolica
🔄
46'
J. Cacciabue ↔ E. Clavijo
Universidad Catolica
🔄
46'
M. Alonso ↔ A. Londono
Universidad Catolica
🟨
57'
Xavier Pineda
Libertad
🔄
61'
D. Coronel ↔ C. Orejuela
Libertad
🔄
67'
X. E. Pineda Arana ↔ J. Estacio
Libertad
🔄
67'
A. Chere ↔ E. Caicedo
Libertad
67'
E. Caicedo · Assist: C. Orejuela
Libertad
🔄
70'
F. Martinez ↔ S. Yanez
Universidad Catolica
🔄
70'
J. Mina ↔ L. Moreno
Universidad Catolica
🔄
75'
V. Branda ↔ G. J. Cortez Casierra
Libertad
🟨
76'
Rodrigo Morinigo
Libertad
85'
S. Yanez · Assist: J. Fajardo
Universidad Catolica
🟥
90+1'
Gabriel Cortez
Libertad
🟥
90'
Johan Estacio
Libertad
VAR
90+4'
Johan Estacio
Libertad
🔄
90+7'
D. Nazareno ↔ B. Palacios
Universidad Catolica

Libertad vs Universidad Catolica Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 45.9%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
No
Probability 61.4%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
45.9%
-
BTTS No
61.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Libertad Win 39.8%
Draw 14.3%
Universidad Catolica Win 45.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Libertad1.02
Universidad Catolica1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Libertad Libertad
WWDLW
24 GF / 26 GA
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica
WLDWL
43 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.04
Average Goals Scored
1.65
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1
10
BTTS Yes
12
10
Over 2.5
12
3.57
Shots on Goal
4.6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Libertad Libertad 23 matches
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica 26 matches
Libertad Statistic Universidad Catolica
8 Wins 12
6 Draws 6
9 Losses 8
24 Goals For 43
26 Goals Against 26
1.04 Avg Goals Scored 1.65
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1
10 BTTS Yes 12
14 Over 1.5 18
10 Over 2.5 12
4 Over 3.5 8
8 Clean Sheets 11
8 Failed To Score 5
3.57 Shots On Goal 4.6
10.43 Total Shots 13.8
3.52 Corners 4.68
45.2% Ball Possession 58.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Universidad Catolica's more proactive style and Libertad's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Universidad Catolica having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Universidad Catolica. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Libertad Analysis

From their first 23 matches, Libertad have collected 30 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses, while the 24:26 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form and are on a winning streak. Going forward they rely heavily on Vilington Branda (5 goals), Gabriel Cortez (4 goals), Antony Chére (4 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Cortez (4 assists), J. Guisamano (2 assists), Enrique Caicedo (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Universidad Catolica Analysis

Universidad Catolica come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 39 points after 23 matches. They have recorded 11 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, with a 38:19 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on José Fajardo (7 goals), Byron Palacios (4 goals), Emiliano Clavijo (4 goals), with creative support from Mauro Díaz (7 assists), Eddy Mejía (2 assists), Jhon Chancellor (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Libertad won 3 times, Universidad Catolica won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:11 from Libertad's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.7%)
Predicted formations: Libertad 4-2-3-1 / Universidad Catolica 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Libertad wins 3, draws 5, Universidad Catolica wins 2

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
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