ECUADOR LIGA PRO
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Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 77%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 2.18
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
77%
1.36
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
2.18
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
91.8%
1.23
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.33
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Libertad Win 31.7%
Draw 23%
Tecnico Universitario Win 45.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Libertad0.98
Tecnico Universitario1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Libertad Libertad
WWDLW
17 GF / 25 GA
Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario
WLDWL
19 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
0.94
Average Goals Scored
1
1.39
Average Goals Conceded
1.05
10
BTTS Yes
8
9
Over 2.5
7
3.06
Shots on Goal
4.29

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Libertad Libertad 18 matches
Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 19 matches
Libertad Statistic Tecnico Universitario
4 Wins 7
6 Draws 2
8 Losses 10
17 Goals For 19
25 Goals Against 20
0.94 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.39 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
10 BTTS Yes 8
12 Over 1.5 12
9 Over 2.5 7
4 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 4
7 Failed To Score 7
3.06 Shots On Goal 4.29
9.17 Total Shots 12.29
3.28 Corners 4.47
44% Ball Possession 40.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Tecnico Universitario's more proactive style and Libertad's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Tecnico Universitario. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Libertad expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Tecnico Universitario in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Tecnico Universitario having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Tecnico Universitario carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 23 points while Libertad sit 15 on 17, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Tecnico Universitario look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Libertad Analysis

Libertad approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 17 points from 17 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 17:25, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín (4 goals), G. Cortéz (3 goals), Ivan Zambrano (3 goals), with creative support from G. Cortéz (3 assists), J. Guisamano (2 assists), Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tecnico Universitario Analysis

Tecnico Universitario are currently 7 in the standings with 23 points from 17 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, while the 19:17 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form and are on a winning streak. Going forward they rely heavily on Mateo Castano (3 goals), Julian Anaya (3 goals), Johan Bocanegra (2 goals), with creative support from Mateo Castano (2 assists), Johan Bocanegra (2 assists), Luis Estupiñan (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Libertad won 3 times, Tecnico Universitario won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:9 from Libertad's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.71 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77%)
Predicted formations: Libertad 5-3-2 / Tecnico Universitario 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Libertad wins 3, draws 2, Tecnico Universitario wins 2
Last matches: Libertad
12.07.26
Lig
Libertad
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
04.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
3
L
30.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
2
L
23.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Independiente del Valle
3
2
W
16.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
10.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Emelec
1
1
D
02.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Aucas
3
2
W
26.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Macara
0
3
L
21.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
18.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
0
2
L
12.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Orense SC
1
2
L
07.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
2
2
D
21.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Delfin SC
0
0
D
19.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
13.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
08.03.26
Lig
Libertad
LDU de Quito
2
1
W
28.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
1
D
24.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
0
W
Last matches: Tecnico Universitario
11.07.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Macara
0
2
L
07.07.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Orense SC
2
1
W
02.06.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
24.05.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Leones del Norte
2
1
W
15.05.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
LDU de Quito
1
2
L
09.05.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Delfin SC
4
0
W
02.05.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Deportivo Cuenca
1
2
L
26.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
22.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Emelec
0
1
L
18.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Mushuc Runa SC
0
1
L
12.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Universidad Catolica
0
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Manta FC
2
0
W
22.03.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
19.03.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Aucas
1
0
W
13.03.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Libertad
2
1
W
08.03.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Macara
1
1
D
28.02.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Orense SC
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
08.02.26
Fri
Tecnico Universitario
Aucas
0
1
L
H2H: Libertad vs Tecnico Universitario
13.03.26
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Libertad
2
1
L
21.06.25
H2H
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
4
1
W
25.02.25
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Libertad
2
2
D
17.09.24
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Libertad
3
0
L
30.03.24
H2H
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
26.11.23
H2H
Tecnico Universitario
Libertad
1
1
D
10.06.23
H2H
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
Last matches: Libertad
04.07.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
3
L
16.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
02.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Aucas
3
2
W
21.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
07.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
2
2
D
19.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
08.03.26
Lig
Libertad
LDU de Quito
2
1
W
24.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
0
W
H2H at home: Libertad
21.06.25
H2H
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
4
1
W
30.03.24
H2H
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
10.06.23
H2H
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
W
Last matches: Tecnico Universitario
07.07.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Orense SC
2
1
W
15.05.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
LDU de Quito
1
2
L
02.05.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Deportivo Cuenca
1
2
L
26.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
18.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Mushuc Runa SC
0
1
L
05.04.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Manta FC
2
0
W
19.03.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Aucas
1
0
W
08.03.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Macara
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Tecnico Universitario
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
08.02.26
Fri
Tecnico Universitario
Aucas
0
1
L
H2H away: Tecnico Universitario
21.06.25
H2H
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
4
1
L
30.03.24
H2H
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
L
10.06.23
H2H
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.81
Draw 3.14
Home 2.56
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.47
Draw 2.09
Home 3.26
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 1.75 1.45
Over 2.0 1.61
Over 2.25 1.91
Over 2.5 2.18
Over 2.75 2.54
Over 3.5 3.92
Under 1.5 3.02
Under 1.75 2.66
Under 2.0 2.27
Under 2.25 1.88
Under 2.5 1.66
Under 2.75 1.49
Under 3.5 1.23
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.80
Draw 3.10
Home 2.45
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 2.10
Home 3.10
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.00
Draw 2.38
Home 2.75
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 2.5 2.10
Over 3.5 3.75
Over 4.5 8.00
Over 5.5 17.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 8.50
Under 1.5 3.25
Under 2.5 1.70
Under 3.5 1.25
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.81
Draw 3.12
Home 2.54
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 1.94
Home 3.16
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.10
Draw 2.29
Home 2.79
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 0.75 1.04
Over 1.0 1.06
Over 1.25 1.20
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 1.75 1.44
Over 2.0 1.64
Over 2.25 1.84
Over 2.5 2.13
Over 2.75 2.49
Over 3.0 3.40
Over 3.25 3.40
Over 3.5 4.59
Over 3.75 4.74
Over 4.0 12.00
Over 4.25 7.12
Over 4.5 16.00
Over 5.5 21.00
Over 6.5 32.00
Under 0.5 17.00
Under 0.75 7.00
Under 1.0 10.90
Under 1.25 3.80
Under 1.5 3.25
Under 1.75 2.52
Under 2.0 2.26
Under 2.25 1.84
Under 2.5 1.67
Under 2.75 1.50
Under 3.0 1.32
Under 3.25 1.26
Under 3.5 1.21
Under 3.75 1.13
Under 4.0 1.05
Under 4.25 1.04
Under 4.5 1.03
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.85
Draw 3.15
Home 2.45
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.40
Draw 2.17
Home 3.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.05
Draw 2.43
Home 2.80
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 2.0 1.52
Over 2.5 2.00
Over 3.0 2.85
Over 3.25 3.15
Over 3.5 3.45
Over 4.0 5.80
Over 4.25 6.10
Over 4.5 6.40
Under 1.5 3.05
Under 2.0 2.33
Under 2.5 1.68
Under 3.0 1.36
Under 3.25 1.30
Under 3.5 1.25
Under 4.0 1.09
Under 4.25 1.08
Under 4.5 1.07

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 14 1 3 40:19 21 43
W W W L W
2 18 9 5 4 21:16 5 32
W W D W L
3 18 8 6 4 20:13 7 30
D W L W W
4 18 8 4 6 19:14 5 28
D L W D W
5 18 8 3 7 18:20 -2 27
L L W D W
6 18 7 5 6 28:18 10 26
L L L W D
7 18 7 5 6 18:18 0 26
W W D L L
8 18 7 2 9 19:19 0 23
L W W W L
9 18 6 5 7 19:19 0 23
W W D L W
10 18 6 5 7 22:24 -2 23
D L L L W
11 18 6 4 8 16:21 -5 22
W L L D L
12 18 6 6 6 14:17 -3 21
D D W W D
13 18 5 6 7 23:27 -4 21
L W D D L
14 18 4 6 8 17:25 -8 18
D L L W L
15 18 4 5 9 10:18 -8 17
L D L L D
16 18 3 4 11 7:23 -16 13
D L W L D
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs