ECUADOR LIGA PRO
04.07.2026 19:00
Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne
Referee: Yerson Zambrano, Ecuador
Libertad
Match Timeline
Leones del Norte
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
14'
Jackson Rodríguez
Libertad
27'
V. Branda · Assist: E. Patta
Libertad
🟨
32'
Jackson Rodríguez
Libertad
🟥
32'
Jackson Rodríguez
Libertad
🟨
33'
Nicolás Monserrat
Leones del Norte
🔄
38'
D. Coronel ↔ M. Lucas
Libertad
VAR
43'
Vilington Branda
Libertad
VAR
45+2'
Juan Anangonó
Leones del Norte
45'
J. Anangono
Leones del Norte
45'
J. Anangono · Assist: D. Pazmino
Leones del Norte
🔄
46'
S. Castro ↔ R. Zambrano
Libertad
🔄
46'
H. Batalla ↔ A. Chere
Libertad
🔄
59'
G. J. Cortez Casierra ↔ C. Orejuela
Libertad
🔄
59'
M. Caramuto ↔ C. Solano
Leones del Norte
🔄
65'
J. Bravo ↔ J. Estacio
Libertad
73'
D. Pazmino · Assist: M. Luque
Leones del Norte
VAR
75'
Mauro Luque
Leones del Norte
🟨
80'
Rody Zambrano
Libertad
🔄
81'
E. Griffa ↔ R. Borja
Leones del Norte
🔄
81'
D. Pazmino ↔ J. Cabeza
Leones del Norte
🟨
90'
Antony Chére
Libertad
🟨
90+3'
Jorge Cabeza
Leones del Norte
🔄
90+3'
M. De La Cruz ↔ M. Caicedo
Leones del Norte
🔄
90+3'
B. Kreiman ↔ Caicedo Nestor
Leones del Norte

Libertad vs Leones del Norte Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
76.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Libertad Win 58%
Draw 22.6%
Leones del Norte Win 19.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Libertad1.05
Leones del Norte1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Libertad Libertad
WWDLW
16 GF / 22 GA
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WLDWL
15 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
0.94
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
9
BTTS Yes
7
8
Over 2.5
6
3.44
Shots on Goal
2.88

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Libertad Libertad 16 matches
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 16 matches
Libertad Statistic Leones del Norte
4 Wins 4
5 Draws 5
7 Losses 7
16 Goals For 15
22 Goals Against 18
1 Avg Goals Scored 0.94
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
9 BTTS Yes 7
11 Over 1.5 12
8 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 6
3.44 Shots On Goal 2.88
10.25 Total Shots 9.25
3.56 Corners 3.5
46.3% Ball Possession 44.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Libertad won 0 times, Leones del Norte won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:4 from Libertad's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (80.7%)
Predicted formations: Libertad 5-4-1 / Leones del Norte 5-3-2
H2H summary: Libertad wins 0, draws 1, Leones del Norte wins 1

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
11 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 36
L W D W L
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs