ECUADOR LIGA PRO
13.09.2026 23:00
Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne
Libertad
Match Timeline
Independiente del Valle
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
19'
Matias Mijail Perello · Assist: Yandri Vásquez
Independiente del Valle
🔄
29'
Edu Pineda ↔ Johan Estacio
Libertad
🔄
29'
D. Coronel ↔ Gabriel Cortez
Libertad
34'
Yandri Vásquez · Assist: Ronald Briones
Independiente del Valle
45'
Gabriel Cortez
Libertad
56'
Vilinton German Branda Merlin · Assist: Antony Chere
Libertad
🔄
60'
Hólger Jamil Quintero Preciado ↔ Junior Sornoza
Independiente del Valle
🔄
60'
Edwin Quintero ↔ Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez
Independiente del Valle
🟨
62'
Johan Estacio
Libertad
🟨
65'
Jhon Espinoza
Independiente del Valle
🟨
68'
Orlin Quinonez
Libertad
🔄
69'
Ronald Briones ↔ Hugo Quintana
Independiente del Valle
🔄
69'
Matias Mijail Perello ↔ Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios
Independiente del Valle
72'
Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios · Assist: Hugo Quintana
Independiente del Valle
🔄
76'
Orlin Quinonez ↔ Enrique Rafael Caicedo Borja
Libertad
🔄
82'
Youri Ochoa ↔ Mateo Carabajal
Independiente del Valle
🔄
84'
Vilinton German Branda Merlin ↔ Carlos Orejuela
Libertad
🔄
84'
cristhian valencia ↔ Jostin Bravo
Libertad
🟥
90'
Jhon Espinoza
Independiente del Valle

Libertad vs Independiente del Valle Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 52.8%
Odds 1.97
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.93
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
52.8%
1.97
BTTS Yes
86%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.93
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.22
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Libertad Win 37.8%
Draw 9.4%
Independiente del Valle Win 52.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Libertad1.07
Independiente del Valle1.75
Recent Form (Last 5)
Libertad Libertad
WWDLW
31 GF / 31 GA
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
WLDWL
86 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
2.21
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
13
BTTS Yes
21
12
Over 2.5
25
3.9
Shots on Goal
5.87

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Libertad Libertad 29 matches
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 39 matches
Libertad Statistic Independiente del Valle
11 Wins 29
8 Draws 3
10 Losses 7
31 Goals For 86
31 Goals Against 42
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 2.21
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
13 BTTS Yes 21
17 Over 1.5 33
12 Over 2.5 25
5 Over 3.5 18
10 Clean Sheets 14
9 Failed To Score 5
3.9 Shots On Goal 5.87
11.03 Total Shots 16.97
3.62 Corners 5.92
44.1% Ball Possession 52.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Independiente del Valle's more proactive style and Libertad's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Independiente del Valle carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 71 points while Libertad sit 8 on 38, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Libertad expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Independiente del Valle in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente del Valle having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Independiente del Valle. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Libertad Analysis

Libertad sit 8 with 38 points after 28 league matches. The record of 10 wins, 8 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 30:31 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín (6 goals), A. Chére (5 goals), G. Cortéz (4 goals), with creative support from G. Cortéz (4 assists), I. Zambrano (2 assists), Jawer Guisamano (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Independiente del Valle Analysis

Independiente del Valle approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 71 points after 29 outings. The return of 23 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, together with goals at 70:31, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through D. Reasco (7 goals), M. Perelló (6 goals), Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez (6 goals), with creative support from A. Rodríguez (5 assists), D. Reasco (4 assists), J. Viacava (4 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 12 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Libertad won 2 times, Independiente del Valle won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:13 from Libertad's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.44 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.6%)
Predicted formations: Libertad 5-4-1 / Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Libertad wins 2, draws 4, Independiente del Valle wins 3

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
11 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 36
L W D W L
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs