ECUADOR LIGA PRO
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Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne
Referee: L. Quinonez

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
78.8%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
71.9%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Libertad Win 78.8%
Draw 4.4%
Emelec Win 16.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Libertad1.12
Emelec0.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Libertad Libertad
WWDLW
29 GF / 30 GA
Emelec Emelec
WLDWL
23 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
0.85
1.11
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
12
BTTS Yes
11
12
Over 2.5
6
3.7
Shots on Goal
3.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Libertad Libertad 27 matches
Emelec Emelec 27 matches
Libertad Statistic Emelec
10 Wins 9
7 Draws 8
10 Losses 10
29 Goals For 23
30 Goals Against 32
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 0.85
1.11 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
12 BTTS Yes 11
16 Over 1.5 20
12 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 2
9 Clean Sheets 9
9 Failed To Score 10
3.7 Shots On Goal 3.22
11 Total Shots 10.44
3.59 Corners 4.22
43.8% Ball Possession 43.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Libertad come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Emelec having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Emelec.

Libertad Analysis

From their first 26 matches, Libertad have collected 37 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. The record of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 29:29 goal balance, points toward very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking threat comes through Vilington Branda (6 goals), Antony Chére (5 goals), Gabriel Cortez (4 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Cortez (4 assists), J. Guisamano (2 assists), Enrique Caicedo (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Emelec Analysis

Emelec sit 13 with 29 points after 26 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 21:31, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Luca Klimowicz (6 goals), Ignacio Guerrico (2 goals), Juan Ruiz Gómez (2 goals), with creative support from Francisco Pizzini (3 assists), Luis Fragozo (2 assists), Angelo Mina (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Libertad won 1 times, Emelec won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:7 from Libertad's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.71 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
Predicted formations: Libertad 5-4-1 / Emelec 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Libertad wins 1, draws 4, Emelec wins 2

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 2 3 66:28 38 68
D W W W W
2 27 14 5 8 31:26 5 47
W W L W W
3 27 13 6 8 35:27 8 45
W L D W W
4 27 12 8 7 47:25 22 44
D W D L W
5 27 12 5 10 27:22 5 41
L W W L W
6 27 10 9 8 28:22 6 39
L W D L D
7 27 10 7 10 29:30 -1 37
L W D W W
8 27 9 9 9 33:34 -1 36
W D D W W
9 27 9 9 9 27:30 -3 36
W W D D L
10 27 9 8 10 29:30 -1 35
L L W L D
11 27 9 8 10 23:32 -9 32
W L W D L
12 27 9 5 13 23:35 -12 32
L D L L L
13 27 8 6 13 31:41 -10 30
L L W D L
14 27 9 2 16 26:38 -12 29
W L L L L
15 27 6 6 15 17:29 -12 24
L L L D L
16 27 5 5 17 14:37 -23 20
W L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs