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19.09.2026 19:00
Estadio Tigo La Huerta
Referee: Mario Diaz De Vivar, Paraguay
Libertad Asuncion
Match Timeline
Sportivo Ameliano
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
27'
Raúl Cabral
Sportivo Ameliano
🟨
42'
Federico Carrizo
Libertad Asuncion
🟨
42'
Abel Paredes
Sportivo Ameliano
🟨
45+1'
Raúl Cabral
Sportivo Ameliano
🟥
45+1'
Raúl Cabral
Sportivo Ameliano
🔄
46'
I. Franco ↔ M. Fernandez
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
46'
L. Ayala ↔ E. Moreira
Sportivo Ameliano
🔄
57'
I. Ramirez ↔ L. Melgarejo
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
57'
R. Villalba ↔ G. Aguilar
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
59'
E. Paez ↔ L. Ortiz
Sportivo Ameliano
⚽
66'
E. Moreira
Sportivo Ameliano
🔄
67'
F. Carrizo ↔ A. Manzur
Libertad Asuncion
⚽
68'
M. Fernandez
Libertad Asuncion
🟨
71'
Néstor Giménez
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
76'
V. Larralde ↔ J. Benitez
Sportivo Ameliano
🔄
76'
C. Ocampos ↔ R. Torales
Sportivo Ameliano
🔄
79'
E. Vera ↔ L. Nequecaur
Libertad Asuncion
🟨
81'
Agustín Manzur
Libertad Asuncion
🟨
86'
Richard Torales
Sportivo Ameliano
🔄
87'
R. Peralta ↔ P. Aranda
Sportivo Ameliano

Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Libertad Asuncion Win 64.6%
Draw 10%
Sportivo Ameliano Win 25.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Libertad Asuncion1.28
Sportivo Ameliano1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion
W W L D W
8 GF / 6 GA
Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano
W W L D W
7 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.47
Average Goals Scored
1.22
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
1
18
BTTS Yes
20
19
Over 2.5
12
4.47
Shots on Goal
3.91

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion 38 matches
Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 32 matches
Libertad Asuncion Statistic Sportivo Ameliano
16 Wins 12
5 Draws 13
17 Losses 7
56 Goals For 39
50 Goals Against 32
1.47 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 1
18 BTTS Yes 20
25 Over 1.5 23
19 Over 2.5 12
11 Over 3.5 4
10 Clean Sheets 7
11 Failed To Score 6
4.47 Shots On Goal 3.91
12.58 Total Shots 11.88
4.63 Corners 4
53.1% Ball Possession 51.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sportivo Ameliano.

Libertad Asuncion Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 19 points from 9 games, Libertad Asuncion bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 6 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 16:11, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by E. Vera (4 goals), A. Manzur (2 goals), A. Benítez (1 goals), with creative support from A. Benítez (2 assists), I. Ramirez (2 assists), Á. Campuzano (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Sportivo Ameliano Analysis

Sportivo Ameliano approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 16 points after 10 outings. They have recorded 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, with a 12:11 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on C. Ocampos (4 goals), E. Moreira (2 goals), R. Cabral (1 goals), with creative support from E. Torales (2 assists), J. González (1 assists), Fabián Franco (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Libertad Asuncion won 7 times, Sportivo Ameliano won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:9 from Libertad Asuncion's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.1%)
Predicted formations: Libertad Asuncion 4-1-4-1 / Sportivo Ameliano 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Libertad Asuncion wins 7, draws 5, Sportivo Ameliano wins 3

Standings

Primera Division: Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 3 3 28:12 16 33
W W D D W
2 16 9 3 4 26:14 12 30
W W D W W
3 16 9 3 4 24:17 7 30
W L D W L
4 16 8 5 3 23:9 14 29
L W W D D
5 16 8 5 3 18:17 1 29
D L W W D
6 16 6 7 3 18:14 4 25
W L D D W
7 16 7 3 6 23:17 6 24
W D W L L
8 16 4 7 5 19:21 -2 19
L D L L D
9 16 5 1 10 17:30 -13 16
L W L L L
10 16 3 4 9 15:27 -12 13
L L D W D
11 16 3 3 10 16:28 -12 12
D W L L D
12 16 0 4 12 8:29 -21 4
L L D D D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)