01.05.2026 23:00
Estadio Tigo La Huerta
Referee: A. Colman
Libertad Asuncion
Match Timeline
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
25'
A. Molinas
Libertad Asuncion
⚽
29'
L. Melgarejo · Assist: A. Fretes
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
46'
A. Alvarez ↔ C. Colman
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
46'
J. Duarte ↔ L. Esteche
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
⚽
52'
L. Melgarejo
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
59'
M. Aguero ↔ T. Paredes
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
59'
M. Garcia ↔ H. Villamayor
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
⚽
66'
R. Villalba
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
71'
L. Melgarejo ↔ J. Recalde
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
71'
M. Rojas ↔ E. Villalba
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
71'
I. Torres ↔ A. Galeano
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
🔄
79'
G. Aguilar ↔ O. R. Vera
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
79'
A. Fretes ↔ J. Bernal
Libertad Asuncion
🔄
83'
A. Molinas ↔ J. Bogarin
Libertad Asuncion
⚽
85'
J. Recalde · Assist: J. Bogarin
Libertad Asuncion

Libertad Asuncion vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 18.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 15.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
90.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
18.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
15.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
81.9%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Libertad Asuncion Win 90.5%
Draw 0%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo Win 9.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Libertad Asuncion1.6
Club Sp. San Lorenzo0.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion
WWDLW
28 GF / 29 GA
Club Sp. San Lorenzo Club Sp. San Lorenzo
WLDWL
12 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
0.67
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
2
9
BTTS Yes
9
9
Over 2.5
7
4.19
Shots on Goal
2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Libertad Asuncion Libertad Asuncion 21 matches
Club Sp. San Lorenzo Club Sp. San Lorenzo 18 matches
Libertad Asuncion Statistic Club Sp. San Lorenzo
7 Wins 1
3 Draws 5
11 Losses 12
28 Goals For 12
29 Goals Against 36
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 0.67
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 2
9 BTTS Yes 9
13 Over 1.5 13
9 Over 2.5 7
6 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 2
7 Failed To Score 8
4.19 Shots On Goal 2
12.43 Total Shots 7.67
4.24 Corners 2.78
51% Ball Possession 29%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Libertad Asuncion's more proactive style and Club Sp. San Lorenzo's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Libertad Asuncion expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Club Sp. San Lorenzo in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Club Sp. San Lorenzo having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Club Sp. San Lorenzo. Libertad Asuncion arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 24 points compared to Club Sp. San Lorenzo in 12 on 8, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Club Sp. San Lorenzo arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Libertad Asuncion Analysis

Libertad Asuncion are currently 7 in the standings with 24 points from 18 matches. The record of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 25:22 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Lorenzo Melgarejo (9 goals), D. Fernandez (5 goals), F. Carrizo (4 goals), with creative support from D. Fernandez (3 assists), F. Carrizo (3 assists), G. Aguilar (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Club Sp. San Lorenzo Analysis

With 8 points from 18 games and a place of 12, Club Sp. San Lorenzo still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 12:36, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through A. Galeano (3 goals), J. Barrios (2 goals), Luis Cáceres (2 goals), with creative support from Héctor Villamayor (3 assists), J. Barrios (1 assists), A. Paez (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Libertad Asuncion won 11 times, Club Sp. San Lorenzo won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 34:9 from Libertad Asuncion's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.58 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Libertad Asuncion 4-2-3-1 / Club Sp. San Lorenzo 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Libertad Asuncion wins 11, draws 1, Club Sp. San Lorenzo wins 0

Standings

Primera Division: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 15 4 3 37:17 20 49
W W L D L
2 22 10 9 3 31:22 9 39
W D W W W
3 22 11 5 6 30:22 8 38
W L D L D
4 22 8 9 5 27:21 6 33
L L W D D
5 22 8 8 6 30:24 6 32
W W L L L
6 22 9 4 9 34:26 8 31
L D W W W
7 22 7 8 7 27:23 4 29
L W D L D
8 22 8 4 10 35:32 3 28
W L L W L
9 22 6 5 11 15:26 -11 23
L D L D W
10 22 5 7 10 18:35 -17 22
L D W W D
11 22 5 5 12 24:33 -9 20
L D L D W
12 22 3 6 13 14:41 -27 15
W D W L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)