ECUADOR LIGA PRO
03.09.2026 21:30
Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra
Referee: G. Gonzalez
Leones del Norte
Match Timeline
Orense SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
12'
Oscar Quiñonez
Orense SC
🟨
38'
Alexis Nicolás Monserrat
Leones del Norte
🟨
41'
Emiliano Griffa
Leones del Norte
🔄
45'
Dario Pazmino ↔ Thomas Amilivia
Leones del Norte
🔄
59'
Renny Jaramillo ↔ Gonzalo Rostagno
Orense SC
🔄
59'
Erick Pluas ↔ Christian Alejandro Ortíz Calle
Orense SC
61'
Cristhian Solano · Assist: Miguel Yordan Caicedo Orobio
Leones del Norte
🔄
69'
Miguel Yordan Caicedo Orobio ↔ Brian Gastón Kreiman
Leones del Norte
🔄
78'
Pedro Velasco ↔ J. Valencia
Orense SC
🟨
78'
Beder Caicedo
Orense SC
🔄
79'
Emiliano Griffa ↔ Elian Pepinos
Leones del Norte
🔄
79'
Cristhian Solano ↔ Jonathan Ronaldo Arroyo
Leones del Norte
🔄
83'
Valentín Burgoa ↔ Luis Miguel Garcés Carrion
Orense SC
🔄
83'
Andrés Parrales ↔ Wilson Arturo Chuchuca Arreaga
Orense SC
🔄
90+1'
Patricio Madero ↔ O. Cabeza
Leones del Norte

Leones del Norte vs Orense SC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75.5%
Odds 1.99
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 2.40
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75.5%
1.99
BTTS Yes
71%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
2.40
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.80
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.40
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Leones del Norte Win 75.5%
Draw 8.7%
Orense SC Win 15.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Leones del Norte1.25
Orense SC1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WWDLW
29 GF / 30 GA
Orense SC Orense SC
WLDWL
31 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
1.15
1.11
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
13
BTTS Yes
17
10
Over 2.5
16
3.85
Shots on Goal
3.74

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 27 matches
Orense SC Orense SC 27 matches
Leones del Norte Statistic Orense SC
9 Wins 8
8 Draws 6
10 Losses 13
29 Goals For 31
30 Goals Against 41
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
1.11 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
13 BTTS Yes 17
20 Over 1.5 24
10 Over 2.5 16
3 Over 3.5 4
9 Clean Sheets 5
7 Failed To Score 7
3.85 Shots On Goal 3.74
12.19 Total Shots 10.96
4.07 Corners 3.93
46.3% Ball Possession 49.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Orense SC. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Orense SC arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Leones del Norte Analysis

So far, Leones del Norte have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 35 points from 26 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses, while the 28:28 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Juan Anangonó (5 goals), Darío Pazmiño (3 goals), Emiliano Griffa (3 goals), with creative support from Jonathan Arroyo (3 assists), Darío Pazmiño (2 assists), Elián Pepinós (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Orense SC Analysis

With 30 points from 26 games and a place of 12, Orense SC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 30:39, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Agustin Herrera (7 goals), Sergio Vásquez (4 goals), Michael Bermúdez (3 goals), with creative support from Sergio Vásquez (3 assists), Erick Zambrano (3 assists), Agustin Herrera (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Leones del Norte won 1 times, Orense SC won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:2 from Leones del Norte's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.3%)
Predicted formations: Leones del Norte 4-2-3-1 / Orense SC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Leones del Norte wins 1, draws 0, Orense SC wins 1

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W W L W W
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
L D D D W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
W L W D L
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
D L D W L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
D W L L W
10 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
11 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 36
L L W D W
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs