ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra
Referee: Eloy Vicente Beltran Moreira, Ecuador
Leones del Norte
Match Timeline
Macara
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
7'
John Jiménez
Macara
🟨
20'
Jean Carlos Estacio
Macara
🟨
31'
Jordan Morán
Leones del Norte
🔄
46'
J. Marrufo ↔ J. Mohor
Macara
🔄
46'
M. Tello ↔ J. Klinger
Macara
🟨
47'
Nicolás Monserrat
Leones del Norte
61'
L. Ferro · Assist: J. Klinger
Macara
🔄
62'
D. Pazmino ↔ Caicedo Nestor
Leones del Norte
🔄
64'
F. Posse ↔ C. Caicedo
Macara
🔄
69'
B. Kreiman ↔ M. Caicedo
Leones del Norte
🔄
69'
C. Velez ↔ T. Coppo
Leones del Norte
🔄
69'
R. Borja ↔ E. Griffa
Leones del Norte
🔄
74'
C. Solano ↔ K. Mina
Leones del Norte
🔄
80'
L. Ferro ↔ M. Medranda
Macara
🔄
85'
M. Miranda ↔ J. Chala
Macara
85'
J. Anangono · Assist: R. Arroyo
Leones del Norte

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.7%
Odds -
2 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 32.3%
Odds -
2 agree / 0 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 41%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
32.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
41%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Leones del Norte Win 62.7%
Draw 10.5%
Macara Win 26.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Leones del Norte1.05
Macara1.02
Recent Form (Last 5)
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WWDLW
14 GF / 17 GA
Macara Macara
WLDWL
16 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
0.93
Average Goals Scored
0.94
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
6
BTTS Yes
7
6
Over 2.5
8
2.87
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 15 matches
Macara Macara 17 matches
Leones del Norte Statistic Macara
4 Wins 5
4 Draws 4
7 Losses 8
14 Goals For 16
17 Goals Against 21
0.93 Avg Goals Scored 0.94
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
6 BTTS Yes 7
11 Over 1.5 12
6 Over 2.5 8
1 Over 3.5 2
5 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 6
2.87 Shots On Goal 4.33
9.07 Total Shots 12.93
3.47 Corners 5.13
43.1% Ball Possession 50.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Macara. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Leones del Norte expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Macara in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Macara having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Leones del Norte Analysis

Leones del Norte sit 14 with 16 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 14:17 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Anangono (4 goals), E. Griffa (3 goals), E. Pepinos (2 goals), with creative support from Jonathan Arroyo (2 assists), E. Pepinos (1 assists), Caicedo Nestor (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Macara Analysis

Macara approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 19 points from 15 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 14:17, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Franco Posse (4 goals), F. Paz (3 goals), M. Tello (2 goals), with creative support from F. Paz (2 assists), J. Klinger (2 assists), Franco Posse (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Leones del Norte won 0 times, Macara won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:1 from Leones del Norte's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.5%)
Predicted formations: Leones del Norte 3-4-3 / Macara 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Leones del Norte wins 0, draws 2, Macara wins 0
Stats
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
Macara Macara
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
1
4 Corner Kicks 4
13 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 4
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Goal 2
5 Shots off Goal 4
4 Blocked Shots 1
8 Shots insidebox 4
4 Shots outsidebox 3
1 Goalkeeper Saves 2
443 Total passes 303
348 Passes accurate 208
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Leones del Norte
Formation
Macara
L. Nazareno
L. Nazareno
J. Moran
J. Moran
N. Monserrat
N. Monserrat
B. Kreiman
B. Kreiman
R. Arroyo
🎯
R. Arroyo
R. Borja
R. Borja
C. Velez
C. Velez
E. Pepinos
E. Pepinos
C. Solano
C. Solano
J. Anangono
J. Anangono
D. Pazmino
D. Pazmino
R. Rodriguez
R. Rodriguez
J. Jimenez
J. Jimenez
S. Etchebarne
S. Etchebarne
J. Marrufo
J. Marrufo
M. Ayala
M. Ayala
J. Estacio
J. Estacio
J. Cazares
J. Cazares
M. Tello
M. Tello
F. Posse
F. Posse
M. Miranda
M. Miranda
L. Ferro
L. Ferro
Leones del Norte 3-4-3
Starting XI
45
L. Nazareno
G
2
J. Moran
23
N. Monserrat
🟨 47'
D
25
B. Kreiman
↓ 69'
D
4
R. Arroyo
🎯 85'
M
55
R. Borja
↓ 69'
M
8
C. Velez
↓ 69'
M
19
E. Pepinos
M
99
C. Solano
↓ 74'
F
40
J. Anangono
⚽ 85'
70
D. Pazmino
↓ 62'
F
Substitutes
24
J. L. Angulo
G
10
A. Mansilla
F
50
M. Caicedo
↑ 69'
D
11
M. Caramuto
M
3
F. Vargas
D
27
Caicedo Nestor
↑ 62'
F
44
K. Mina
↑ 74'
5
T. Coppo
↑ 69'
M
32
A. Aguas
6
E. Griffa
↑ 69'
M
17
J. Mairongo
M
13
J. Cabeza
M
Macara 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
R. Rodriguez
G
4
J. Jimenez
🟨 7'
D
21
S. Etchebarne
D
14
J. Marrufo
↓ 46'
D
13
M. Ayala
D
5
J. Estacio
🟨 20'
M
16
J. Cazares
M
15
M. Tello
↓ 46'
M
9
F. Posse
↓ 64'
M
10
M. Miranda
↓ 85'
M
22
L. Ferro
⚽ 61' ↓ 80'
F
Substitutes
12
D. Cuero
G
26
M. Medranda
↑ 80'
D
7
F. Paz
F
27
J. Mohor
↑ 46'
M
25
D. Bolanos
M
11
T. Espinoza
M
50
C. Caicedo
↑ 64'
M
77
J. Chala
↑ 85'
F
30
T. Chamba
M
87
J. Klinger
🎯 61' ↑ 46'
F
17
J. Zambrano
M
19
P. Ramos
F
Last matches: Leones del Norte
10.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
04.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
3
1
W
24.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
17.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
09.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Orense SC
0
2
L
03.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Emelec
2
0
W
25.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
22.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
3
0
W
17.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
1
L
11.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
18.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
14.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
0
3
L
28.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
1
1
D
22.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
0
0
D
Last matches: Macara
11.07.26
Lig
Macara
Tecnico Universitario
2
0
W
05.07.26
Lig
Macara
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
24.05.26
Lig
Macara
Emelec
0
2
L
16.05.26
Lig
Macara
Independiente del Valle
0
3
L
10.05.26
Lig
Macara
Manta FC
1
0
W
03.05.26
Lig
Macara
Orense SC
1
2
L
26.04.26
Lig
Macara
Libertad
3
0
W
24.04.26
Lig
Macara
Universidad Catolica
0
4
L
19.04.26
Lig
Macara
Barcelona SC
3
1
W
12.04.26
Lig
Macara
Guayaquil City FC
1
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Macara
Aucas
0
1
L
21.03.26
Lig
Macara
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
18.03.26
Lig
Macara
Delfin SC
1
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Macara
Mushuc Runa SC
0
0
D
08.03.26
Lig
Macara
Tecnico Universitario
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
Macara
LDU de Quito
2
0
W
22.02.26
Lig
Macara
Leones del Norte
0
0
D
14.02.26
Fri
Macara
Deportivo Cuenca
1
2
L
25.01.26
Fri
Macara
FBC Melgar
1
2
L
H2H: Leones del Norte vs Macara
01.06.26
H2H
Leones del Norte
Macara
1
1
D
22.02.26
H2H
Macara
Leones del Norte
0
0
D
Last matches: Leones del Norte
10.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
17.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
03.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Emelec
2
0
W
22.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
3
0
W
17.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
1
L
05.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
18.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
28.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
1
1
D
H2H at home: Leones del Norte
01.06.26
H2H
Leones del Norte
Macara
1
1
D
Last matches: Macara
11.07.26
Lig
Macara
Tecnico Universitario
2
0
W
24.05.26
Lig
Macara
Emelec
0
2
L
10.05.26
Lig
Macara
Manta FC
1
0
W
24.04.26
Lig
Macara
Universidad Catolica
0
4
L
12.04.26
Lig
Macara
Guayaquil City FC
1
2
L
21.03.26
Lig
Macara
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
15.03.26
Lig
Macara
Mushuc Runa SC
0
0
D
01.03.26
Lig
Macara
LDU de Quito
2
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
Macara
FBC Melgar
1
2
L
H2H away: Macara
01.06.26
H2H
Leones del Norte
Macara
1
1
D

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 14 1 3 40:19 21 43
W W W L W
2 18 9 5 4 21:16 5 32
W W D W L
3 18 8 6 4 20:13 7 30
D W L W W
4 18 8 4 6 19:14 5 28
D L W D W
5 18 8 3 7 18:20 -2 27
L L W D W
6 18 7 5 6 28:18 10 26
L L L W D
7 18 7 5 6 18:18 0 26
W W D L L
8 18 7 2 9 19:19 0 23
L W W W L
9 18 6 5 7 19:19 0 23
W W D L W
10 18 6 5 7 22:24 -2 23
D L L L W
11 18 6 4 8 16:21 -5 22
W L L D L
12 18 6 6 6 14:17 -3 21
D D W W D
13 18 5 6 7 23:27 -4 21
L W D D L
14 18 4 6 8 17:25 -8 18
D L L W L
15 18 4 5 9 10:18 -8 17
L D L L D
16 18 3 4 11 7:23 -16 13
D L W L D
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs