Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
73.2%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
54.1%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
58.6%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 1-2 |
-
|
- |
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Leones del Norte
25 matches
Independiente del Valle
33 matches
| Leones del Norte | Statistic | Independiente del Valle |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Wins | 26 |
| 8 | Draws | 2 |
| 8 | Losses | 5 |
| 26 | Goals For | 74 |
| 25 | Goals Against | 32 |
| 1.04 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.24 |
| 1 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.97 |
| 11 | BTTS Yes | 16 |
| 18 | Over 1.5 | 27 |
| 8 | Over 2.5 | 20 |
| 2 | Over 3.5 | 14 |
| 9 | Clean Sheets | 14 |
| 7 | Failed To Score | 4 |
| 3.84 | Shots On Goal | 5.91 |
| 12.24 | Total Shots | 17.03 |
| 4.08 | Corners | 5.97 |
| 46.4% | Ball Possession | 52.8% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Independiente del Valle's more proactive style and Leones del Norte's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Independiente del Valle look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Leones del Norte expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Independiente del Valle in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente del Valle having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Independiente del Valle. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Independiente del Valle carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 64 points while Leones del Norte sit 8 on 32, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.
So far, Leones del Norte have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 32 points from 24 matches. The record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 24:25 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Juan Anangonó (5 goals), Darío Pazmiño (3 goals), Emiliano Griffa (3 goals), with creative support from Jonathan Arroyo (3 assists), Darío Pazmiño (2 assists), Elián Pepinós (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
Independiente del Valle come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 64 points after 25 matches. The return of 21 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 61:24, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Matías Perello (6 goals), Emerson Pata (6 goals), Djorkaeff Reasco (5 goals), with creative support from Arón Rodríguez (5 assists), Juan Viacava (4 assists), Djorkaeff Reasco (3 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 11 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.
Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Leones del Norte won 0 times, Independiente del Valle won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:5 from Leones del Norte's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73:33 | 40 | 74 |
W
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 2 | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51:27 | 24 | 51 |
W
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 3 | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 41:33 | 8 | 51 |
W
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 4 | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33:28 | 5 | 50 |
D
D
D
W
W
|
|
| 5 | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31:24 | 7 | 46 |
D
W
D
L
W
|
|
| 6 | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32:25 | 7 | 44 |
D
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 7 | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:34 | -1 | 41 |
L
W
D
L
W
|
|
| 8 |
Leones del Norte
Home
|
30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 31:32 | -1 | 39 |
L
D
W
L
L
|
| 9 | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33:36 | -3 | 39 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 25:34 | -9 | 39 |
L
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 11 | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35:38 | -3 | 38 |
L
D
D
W
D
|
|
| 12 | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 25:37 | -12 | 36 |
D
L
W
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 36:47 | -11 | 33 |
L
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 28:42 | -14 | 32 |
W
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 15 | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 19:31 | -12 | 28 |
D
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 16 | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 17:42 | -25 | 21 |
D
L
L
W
L
|