ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 27.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.3%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
27.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Leones del Norte Win 60.3%
Draw 6.2%
Barcelona SC Win 33.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Leones del Norte1.02
Barcelona SC0.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WWDLW
23 GF / 21 GA
Barcelona SC Barcelona SC
WLDWL
33 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.05
Average Goals Scored
0.92
0.95
Average Goals Conceded
0.97
10
BTTS Yes
14
7
Over 2.5
12
3.64
Shots on Goal
3.44

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 22 matches
Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 36 matches
Leones del Norte Statistic Barcelona SC
8 Wins 14
7 Draws 9
7 Losses 13
23 Goals For 33
21 Goals Against 35
1.05 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
0.95 Avg Goals Conceded 0.97
10 BTTS Yes 14
15 Over 1.5 20
7 Over 2.5 12
2 Over 3.5 3
8 Clean Sheets 13
6 Failed To Score 12
3.64 Shots On Goal 3.44
12.36 Total Shots 12.28
3.95 Corners 3.84
46.1% Ball Possession 46.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Barcelona SC.

Leones del Norte Analysis

Leones del Norte are currently 7 in the standings with 28 points from 21 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, while the 22:21 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Juan Anangonó (5 goals), Emiliano Griffa (3 goals), Darío Pazmiño (2 goals), with creative support from Jonathan Arroyo (3 assists), Darío Pazmiño (1 assists), Cristhian Solano (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Barcelona SC Analysis

Placed 4 with 34 points from 21 outings, Barcelona SC continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, while the 23:16 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Darío Benedetto (4 goals), J. Quiñónez (2 goals), Milton Celiz (2 goals), with creative support from Tomás Martínez (2 assists), Darío Benedetto (1 assists), J. Quiñónez (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Leones del Norte won 0 times, Barcelona SC won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:2 from Leones del Norte's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.8%)
Predicted formations: Leones del Norte 4-2-3-1 / Barcelona SC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Leones del Norte wins 0, draws 0, Barcelona SC wins 1
Last matches: Leones del Norte
26.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
1
1
D
18.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
15.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
10.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
04.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
3
1
W
01.06.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
1
1
D
24.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
17.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
09.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Orense SC
0
2
L
03.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Emelec
2
0
W
25.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
22.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
3
0
W
17.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
1
L
11.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
18.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
14.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
0
3
L
Last matches: Barcelona SC
27.07.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
LDU de Quito
0
1
L
22.07.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Universidad Catolica
1
2
L
19.07.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Libertad
1
0
W
16.07.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Guayaquil City FC
1
1
D
12.07.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Emelec
0
0
D
05.07.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Deportivo Cuenca
2
0
W
02.06.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Tecnico Universitario
0
1
L
29.05.26
CON
Barcelona SC
Cruzeiro
0
4
L
24.05.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Delfin SC
2
1
W
22.05.26
CON
Barcelona SC
U. Catolica
0
2
L
17.05.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Aucas
3
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Independiente del Valle
0
1
L
06.05.26
CON
Barcelona SC
Boca Juniors
1
0
W
03.05.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Manta FC
1
1
D
30.04.26
CON
Barcelona SC
U. Catolica
1
2
L
26.04.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Orense SC
1
1
D
22.04.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Mushuc Runa SC
2
1
W
19.04.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Macara
1
3
L
15.04.26
CON
Barcelona SC
Boca Juniors
0
3
L
11.04.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Leones del Norte
2
1
W
H2H: Leones del Norte vs Barcelona SC
11.04.26
H2H
Barcelona SC
Leones del Norte
2
1
L
Last matches: Leones del Norte
23.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
1
1
D
15.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
10.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
01.06.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
1
1
D
17.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
03.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Emelec
2
0
W
22.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
3
0
W
17.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
1
L
05.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
18.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
28.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
1
1
D
Last matches: Barcelona SC
22.07.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Universidad Catolica
1
2
L
12.07.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Emelec
0
0
D
02.06.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Tecnico Universitario
0
1
L
29.05.26
CON
Barcelona SC
Cruzeiro
0
4
L
24.05.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Delfin SC
2
1
W
22.05.26
CON
Barcelona SC
U. Catolica
0
2
L
10.05.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Independiente del Valle
0
1
L
26.04.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Orense SC
1
1
D
19.04.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Macara
1
3
L
15.04.26
CON
Barcelona SC
Boca Juniors
0
3
L
04.04.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
LDU de Quito
2
0
W
19.03.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Libertad
0
0
D
15.03.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
11.03.26
CON
Barcelona SC
Botafogo
1
0
W
01.03.26
Lig
Barcelona SC
Deportivo Cuenca
1
2
L
26.02.26
CON
Barcelona SC
Argentinos JRS
1
0
W
05.02.26
Fri
Barcelona SC
Guayaquil City FC
2
1
W

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 18 1 3 55:22 33 55
W W W W W
2 22 10 6 6 33:19 14 36
D W W W L
3 22 10 5 7 28:22 6 35
W W L W W
4 22 10 5 7 24:25 -1 35
L L W L W
5 22 9 7 6 23:17 6 34
L L W D D
6 22 9 5 8 21:17 4 32
W D L L D
7 22 8 7 7 23:21 2 31
W D W D W
8 22 9 4 9 21:27 -6 31
W L L D L
9 22 7 7 8 19:23 -4 28
D D W D W
10 22 7 6 9 21:26 -5 27
W W L W D
11 22 8 2 12 20:24 -4 26
W L L L L
12 22 7 5 10 27:32 -5 26
L W L L D
13 22 6 7 9 27:33 -6 25
L D W L L
14 22 7 7 8 19:26 -7 25
L D L W D
15 22 6 5 11 13:21 -8 23
L L W W L
16 22 3 5 14 8:27 -19 14
L D L L D
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs