Login Register
MEXICO › LIGA MX
24.10.2026 23:00
Estadio León

Leon vs Toluca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Leon Win 53.6%
Draw 7.5%
Toluca Win 38.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Leon1.67
Toluca1.96
Recent Form (Last 5)
Leon Leon
WWDLW
30 GF / 25 GA
Toluca Toluca
WLDWL
49 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.88
Average Goals Scored
2.23
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
11
BTTS Yes
14
8
Over 2.5
16
5.42
Shots on Goal
6.26

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Leon Leon 16 matches
Toluca Toluca 22 matches
Leon Statistic Toluca
7 Wins 10
4 Draws 5
5 Losses 7
30 Goals For 49
25 Goals Against 30
1.88 Avg Goals Scored 2.23
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
11 BTTS Yes 14
13 Over 1.5 19
8 Over 2.5 16
5 Over 3.5 11
4 Clean Sheets 7
2 Failed To Score 2
5.42 Shots On Goal 6.26
13.5 Total Shots 17.42
4.25 Corners 5.63
50.3% Ball Possession 58.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Leon expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Toluca in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Toluca having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Toluca. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Leon Analysis

Leon arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 18 points after 11 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 15:12 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by D. Cambindo (3 goals), D. Arcila (3 goals), J. Alvarado (2 goals), with creative support from D. Cambindo (1 assists), J. Alvarado (1 assists), J. Romaña (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Toluca Analysis

Toluca come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 20 points from 11 matches. The record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 25:15 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Vega (4 goals), Paulinho (3 goals), F. Viñas (3 goals), with creative support from Helinho (4 assists), A. Vega (2 assists), N. Castro (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Leon won 3 times, Toluca won 4 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:27 from Leon's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.64 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.5%)
Predicted formations: Leon 4-1-4-1 / Toluca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Leon wins 3, draws 7, Toluca wins 4

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 3 1 27:14 13 24
W D W D L
2 12 6 3 3 26:16 10 21
D L D L W
3 12 6 3 3 19:18 1 21
W D W D L
4 12 5 5 2 19:12 7 20
D D L D W
5 12 6 2 4 27:21 6 20
W D D L W
6 11 6 2 3 15:13 2 20
L W W D W
7
Leon Home
12 5 3 4 18:17 1 18
L D W D W
8 11 5 2 4 19:16 3 17
W D L W D
9 12 5 1 6 17:16 1 16
W W W W W
10 11 4 4 3 15:14 1 16
D D L D L
11 12 4 4 4 19:20 -1 16
W D L D L
12 12 4 4 4 12:13 -1 16
D D L D L
13 12 3 5 4 14:16 -2 14
D W W L D
14 12 3 4 5 19:16 3 13
L D L D W
15 12 3 4 5 16:21 -5 13
D L W W L
16 12 2 5 5 13:19 -6 11
L L W D L
17 12 2 3 7 15:25 -10 9
L D L L L
18 12 1 1 10 8:31 -23 4
L D L W L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)