MEXICO LIGA MX
15.09.2026 01:00

Leon vs Atletico San Luis Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 50.7%
Odds 1.93
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 1.79
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
50.7%
1.93
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
1.79
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
76.7%
1.25
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Leon Win 50.7%
Draw 16.1%
Atletico San Luis Win 33.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Leon1.65
Atletico San Luis1.77
Recent Form (Last 5)
Leon Leon
WWDLW
21 GF / 17 GA
Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis
WLDWL
23 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.91
Average Goals Scored
1.92
1.55
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
7
BTTS Yes
5
6
Over 2.5
9
5.29
Shots on Goal
4.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Leon Leon 11 matches
Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 12 matches
Leon Statistic Atletico San Luis
5 Wins 5
2 Draws 4
4 Losses 3
21 Goals For 23
17 Goals Against 15
1.91 Avg Goals Scored 1.92
1.55 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
7 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 10
6 Over 2.5 9
4 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 3
5.29 Shots On Goal 4.14
13.86 Total Shots 12.57
4.29 Corners 3.14
49% Ball Possession 51.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Leon's more proactive style and Atletico San Luis's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atletico San Luis. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Leon expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Atletico San Luis in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico San Luis having the stronger overall control. Leon arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 10 points compared to Atletico San Luis in 13 on 6, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Leon Analysis

So far, Leon have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 10 points from 6 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, while the 8:6 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Daniel Arcila (2 goals), Jordi Cortizo (1 goals), Diber Cambindo (1 goals), with creative support from Luis Valadez (1 assists), José Alvarado (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Atletico San Luis Analysis

Atletico San Luis sit 13 with 6 points after 6 league matches. The record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 8:10 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Rafa Llorente (3 goals), D. Rodríguez (2 goals), Ó. Macías (1 goals), with creative support from L. Flores (2 assists), Ó. Macías (1 assists), R. Torres (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Leon won 9 times, Atletico San Luis won 5 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:16 from Leon's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.9%)
Predicted formations: Leon 4-1-4-1 / Atletico San Luis 5-4-1
H2H summary: Leon wins 9, draws 1, Atletico San Luis wins 5

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 1 1 17:6 11 16
W W W D W
2 7 5 1 1 15:6 9 16
L W W W W
3 8 5 0 3 16:14 2 15
W W W L L
4 7 4 2 1 12:6 6 14
W D W W D
5 7 4 1 2 10:7 3 13
W W L D W
6 7 4 1 2 10:8 2 13
L W L W D
7 7 4 1 2 10:9 1 13
W L W W D
8 8 4 1 3 12:14 -2 13
L D L W W
9 8 3 2 3 13:8 5 11
W W D D L
10 7 3 2 2 11:9 2 11
W L D D W
11 7 3 1 3 13:10 3 10
D L L W W
12
Leon Home
7 3 1 3 9:9 0 10
L D W W W
13 8 2 2 4 9:13 -4 8
L D L D L
14 8 1 4 3 9:11 -2 7
D D D W L
15 8 1 4 3 7:12 -5 7
L D D L D
16 7 1 3 3 8:13 -5 6
L W D L D
17 7 0 1 6 4:12 -8 1
L D L L L
18 7 0 0 7 3:21 -18 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)