FRANCE LIGUE 1
--.--.---- --:--
Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Referee: B. Bastien
Lens
Match Timeline
Paris Saint Germain
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
29'
K. Kvaratskhelia · Assist: O. Dembele
Paris Saint Germain
🟨
45'
Ilya Zabarnyi
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
46'
B. Barcola ↔ Vitinha
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
60'
S. Baidoo ↔ K. Antonio
Lens
🔄
60'
W. Said ↔ F. Thauvin
Lens
🔄
61'
O. Edouard ↔ A. Saint-Maximin
Lens
🔄
61'
L. Hernandez ↔ F. Ruiz
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
72'
K. Kvaratskhelia ↔ G. Ramos
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
76'
O. Dembele ↔ I. Mbaye
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
76'
J. Neves ↔ D. Lucea
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
85'
A. Sima ↔ F. Sotoca
Lens
🔄
85'
R. Aguilar ↔ A. Bulatovic
Lens
90'
I. Mbaye · Assist: D. Doue
Paris Saint Germain

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 90.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 83.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
90.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
83.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Lens Win 41.6%
Draw 9.4%
Paris Saint Germain Win 49%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lens1.67
Paris Saint Germain1.84
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lens Lens
WWDLW
78 GF / 39 GA
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain
WLDWL
121 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
2.11
Average Goals Scored
2.37
1.05
Average Goals Conceded
1.02
21
BTTS Yes
25
26
Over 2.5
33
5.78
Shots on Goal
6.96

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lens Lens 37 matches
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 51 matches
Lens Statistic Paris Saint Germain
25 Wins 34
5 Draws 9
7 Losses 8
78 Goals For 121
39 Goals Against 52
2.11 Avg Goals Scored 2.37
1.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1.02
21 BTTS Yes 25
31 Over 1.5 41
26 Over 2.5 33
13 Over 3.5 20
12 Clean Sheets 23
5 Failed To Score 4
5.78 Shots On Goal 6.96
16.49 Total Shots 18.27
6.32 Corners 6.29
52.9% Ball Possession 67.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lens expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Paris Saint Germain in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Paris Saint Germain having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Paris Saint Germain.

Lens Analysis

Lens arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 67 points after 32 matches. Their overall return of 21 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 62:33 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Odsonne Édouard (12 goals), F. Thauvin (10 goals), W. Said (10 goals), with creative support from Adrien Thomasson (9 assists), Matthieu Udol (7 assists), F. Thauvin (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 14 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with J. Gradit, R. Gurtner, S. Abdulhamid unavailable.

Paris Saint Germain Analysis

Paris Saint Germain approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 73 points after 32 outings. They have recorded 23 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with a 71:27 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on B. Barcola (10 goals), O. Dembele (10 goals), D. Doue (7 goals), with creative support from Vitinha (7 assists), O. Dembele (6 assists), N. Mendes (5 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their record of 10 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with A. Hakimi, Q. Ndjantou, L. Chevalier unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lens won 2 times, Paris Saint Germain won 10 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:28 from Lens's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.6%)
Predicted formations: Lens 3-4-2-1 / Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
Missing players: Lens 3, Paris Saint Germain 7
H2H summary: Lens wins 2, draws 3, Paris Saint Germain wins 10
Stats
Lens Lens
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain
Shots on Goal
10
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
11
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
4
6 Corner Kicks 3
9 Fouls 3
3 Offsides 1
38% Ball Possession 62%
25 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Goal 3
11 Shots off Goal 3
4 Blocked Shots 4
19 Shots insidebox 8
6 Shots outsidebox 2
1 Goalkeeper Saves 8
419 Total passes 716
333 Passes accurate 631
2.87 expected_goals 1.22
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Lens
Formation
Paris Saint Germain
R. Risser
R. Risser
I. Ganiou
I. Ganiou
S. Baidoo
S. Baidoo
M. Sarr
M. Sarr
R. Aguilar
R. Aguilar
M. Sangare
M. Sangare
A. Thomasson
A. Thomasson
M. Udol
M. Udol
A. Sima
A. Sima
W. Said
W. Said
O. Edouard
O. Edouard
M. Safonov
M. Safonov
S. Mayulu
S. Mayulu
I. Zabarnyi
I. Zabarnyi
L. Beraldo
L. Beraldo
L. Hernandez
L. Hernandez
D. Doue
🎯
D. Doue
J. Neves
J. Neves
D. Fernandez
D. Fernandez
B. Barcola
B. Barcola
O. Dembele
🎯
O. Dembele
K. Kvaratskhelia
K. Kvaratskhelia
Lens 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
40
R. Risser
G
25
I. Ganiou
D
6
S. Baidoo
↓ 60'
D
20
M. Sarr
D
2
R. Aguilar
↓ 85'
M
8
M. Sangare
M
28
A. Thomasson
M
14
M. Udol
M
19
A. Sima
↓ 85'
F
22
W. Said
↓ 60'
F
11
O. Edouard
↓ 61'
F
Substitutes
16
M. Gorgelin
G
27
A. Masuaku
D
32
K. Antonio
↑ 60'
D
10
F. Thauvin
↑ 60'
F
9
A. Saint-Maximin
↑ 61'
F
7
F. Sotoca
↑ 85'
F
21
A. Haidara
M
5
A. Bulatovic
↑ 85'
M
41
M. Soares
M
Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
Starting XI
39
M. Safonov
G
24
S. Mayulu
D
6
I. Zabarnyi
🟨 45'
D
4
L. Beraldo
D
21
L. Hernandez
↓ 61'
D
14
D. Doue
🎯 90'
M
87
J. Neves
↓ 76'
M
27
D. Fernandez
M
29
B. Barcola
↓ 46'
F
10
O. Dembele
🎯 29' ↓ 76'
F
7
K. Kvaratskhelia
⚽ 29' ↓ 72'
F
Substitutes
89
R. Marin
G
5
Marquinhos
D
8
F. Ruiz
↑ 61'
M
17
Vitinha
↑ 46'
M
9
G. Ramos
↑ 72'
F
53
T. Cordier
D
49
I. Mbaye
⚽ 90' ↑ 76'
F
54
D. Lucea
↑ 76'
D
42
D. Boly
D
Last matches: Lens
25.07.26
Fri
Lens
Charleroi
2
2
D
18.07.26
Fri
Lens
Boulogne
4
1
W
22.05.26
Cou
Lens
Nice
3
1
W
17.05.26
Lig
Lens
Lyon
4
0
W
08.05.26
Lig
Lens
Nantes
1
0
W
02.05.26
Lig
Lens
Nice
1
1
D
24.04.26
Lig
Lens
Stade Brestois 29
3
3
D
21.04.26
Cou
Lens
Toulouse
4
1
W
17.04.26
Lig
Lens
Toulouse
3
2
W
11.04.26
Fri
Lens
Rouen
2
1
W
04.04.26
Lig
Lens
Lille
0
3
L
20.03.26
Lig
Lens
Angers
5
1
W
14.03.26
Lig
Lens
Lorient
1
2
L
08.03.26
Lig
Lens
Metz
3
0
W
05.03.26
Cou
Lens
Lyon
2
2
D
27.02.26
Lig
Lens
Strasbourg
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Lens
Monaco
2
3
L
14.02.26
Lig
Lens
Paris FC
5
0
W
07.02.26
Lig
Lens
Rennes
3
1
W
04.02.26
Cou
Lens
Estac Troyes
4
2
W
Last matches: Paris Saint Germain
30.05.26
UEF
Paris Saint Germain
Arsenal
1
1
D
17.05.26
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Paris FC
1
2
L
10.05.26
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Stade Brestois 29
1
0
W
06.05.26
UEF
Paris Saint Germain
Bayern München
1
1
D
02.05.26
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Lorient
2
2
D
28.04.26
UEF
Paris Saint Germain
Bayern München
5
4
W
25.04.26
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Angers
3
0
W
22.04.26
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Nantes
3
0
W
19.04.26
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Lyon
1
2
L
14.04.26
UEF
Paris Saint Germain
Liverpool
2
0
W
08.04.26
UEF
Paris Saint Germain
Liverpool
2
0
W
03.04.26
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Toulouse
3
1
W
21.03.26
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Nice
4
0
W
17.03.26
UEF
Paris Saint Germain
Chelsea
3
0
W
11.03.26
UEF
Paris Saint Germain
Chelsea
5
2
W
06.03.26
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Monaco
1
3
L
28.02.26
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Le Havre
1
0
W
25.02.26
UEF
Paris Saint Germain
Monaco
2
2
D
21.02.26
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Metz
3
0
W
17.02.26
UEF
Paris Saint Germain
Monaco
3
2
W
H2H: Lens vs Paris Saint Germain
13.05.26
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
0
2
L
14.09.25
H2H
Paris Saint Germain
Lens
2
0
L
18.01.25
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
1
2
L
22.12.24
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
1
1
D
02.11.24
H2H
Paris Saint Germain
Lens
1
0
L
14.01.24
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
0
2
L
26.08.23
H2H
Paris Saint Germain
Lens
3
1
L
15.04.23
H2H
Paris Saint Germain
Lens
3
1
L
01.01.23
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
3
1
W
23.04.22
H2H
Paris Saint Germain
Lens
1
1
D
04.12.21
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
1
1
D
01.05.21
H2H
Paris Saint Germain
Lens
2
1
L
10.09.20
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
1
0
W
07.03.15
H2H
Paris Saint Germain
Lens
4
1
L
17.10.14
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
1
3
L
Last matches: Lens
25.07.26
Fri
Lens
Charleroi
2
2
D
18.07.26
Fri
Lens
Boulogne
4
1
W
22.05.26
Cou
Lens
Nice
3
1
W
08.05.26
Lig
Lens
Nantes
1
0
W
21.04.26
Cou
Lens
Toulouse
4
1
W
17.04.26
Lig
Lens
Toulouse
3
2
W
11.04.26
Fri
Lens
Rouen
2
1
W
20.03.26
Lig
Lens
Angers
5
1
W
08.03.26
Lig
Lens
Metz
3
0
W
21.02.26
Lig
Lens
Monaco
2
3
L
07.02.26
Lig
Lens
Rennes
3
1
W
30.01.26
Lig
Lens
Le Havre
1
0
W
17.01.26
Lig
Lens
Auxerre
1
0
W
19.12.25
Cou
Lens
Feignies-Aulnoye
3
1
W
14.12.25
Lig
Lens
Nice
2
0
W
22.11.25
Lig
Lens
Strasbourg
1
0
W
02.11.25
Lig
Lens
Lorient
3
0
W
25.10.25
Lig
Lens
Marseille
2
1
W
19.10.25
Lig
Lens
Paris FC
2
1
W
20.09.25
Lig
Lens
Lille
3
0
W
H2H at home: Lens
13.05.26
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
0
2
L
18.01.25
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
1
2
L
22.12.24
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
1
1
D
14.01.24
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
0
2
L
01.01.23
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
3
1
W
04.12.21
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
1
1
D
10.09.20
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
1
0
W
17.10.14
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
1
3
L
Last matches: Paris Saint Germain
17.05.26
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Paris FC
1
2
L
06.05.26
UEF
Paris Saint Germain
Bayern München
1
1
D
25.04.26
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Angers
3
0
W
14.04.26
UEF
Paris Saint Germain
Liverpool
2
0
W
21.03.26
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Nice
4
0
W
17.03.26
UEF
Paris Saint Germain
Chelsea
3
0
W
28.02.26
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Le Havre
1
0
W
17.02.26
UEF
Paris Saint Germain
Monaco
3
2
W
13.02.26
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Rennes
1
3
L
01.02.26
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Strasbourg
2
1
W
23.01.26
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Auxerre
1
0
W
20.01.26
UEF
Paris Saint Germain
Sporting CP
1
2
L
20.12.25
Cou
Paris Saint Germain
Vendée Fontenay
4
0
W
13.12.25
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Metz
3
2
W
10.12.25
UEF
Paris Saint Germain
Athletic Club
0
0
D
29.11.25
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Monaco
0
1
L
09.11.25
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Lyon
3
2
W
29.10.25
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Lorient
1
1
D
25.10.25
Lig
Paris Saint Germain
Stade Brestois 29
3
0
W
21.10.25
UEF
Paris Saint Germain
Bayer Leverkusen
7
2
W
H2H away: Paris Saint Germain
13.05.26
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
0
2
W
18.01.25
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
1
2
W
22.12.24
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
1
1
D
14.01.24
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
0
2
W
01.01.23
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
3
1
L
04.12.21
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
1
1
D
10.09.20
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
1
0
L
17.10.14
H2H
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
1
3
W

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2
Lens Home
34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
Champions League
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Lens 3 missing
-
J. Gradit
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
R. Gurtner
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
S. Abdulhamid
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
Paris Saint Germain 7 missing
-
A. Hakimi
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
Q. Ndjantou
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
L. Chevalier
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
N. Mendes
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
W. Pacho
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
Lee Kang-In
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
W. Zaire-Emery
Missing Fixture Back Injury
OUT