FRANCE LIGUE 1
--.--.---- --:--
Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Referee: M. Vernice
Lens
Match Timeline
Nantes
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
15'
Abdallah Sima
Lens
🟨
36'
Andrija Bulatovic
Lens
🔄
46'
R. Fofana ↔ F. Sotoca
Lens
🔄
59'
O. Edouard ↔ R. Aguilar
Lens
🔄
65'
A. Haidara ↔ F. Sylla
Lens
🔄
66'
U. Radakovic ↔ Ali Youssef
Nantes
VAR
72'
Abdallah Sima
Lens
🟨
75'
Ali Youssef
Nantes
🔄
79'
W. Said ↔ A. Bermont
Lens
🔄
79'
A. Sima ↔ M. Soares
Lens
79'
M. Soares · Assist: A. Bulatovic
Lens
🔄
82'
M. Abline ↔ Y. El Arabi
Nantes
🔄
82'
I. Ganago ↔ Mostafa Mohamed
Nantes
🔄
82'
M. Kaba ↔ L. Leroux
Nantes
🔄
87'
F. Guilbert ↔ D. Tabibou
Nantes

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 96.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 15.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 19.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
96.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
15.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
19.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Lens Win 96.5%
Draw 0%
Nantes Win 3.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lens1.93
Nantes1.05
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lens Lens
WWDLW
77 GF / 39 GA
Nantes Nantes
WLDWL
35 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
2.14
Average Goals Scored
1.03
1.08
Average Goals Conceded
1.62
21
BTTS Yes
17
26
Over 2.5
16
5.81
Shots on Goal
3.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lens Lens 36 matches
Nantes Nantes 34 matches
Lens Statistic Nantes
24 Wins 6
5 Draws 9
7 Losses 19
77 Goals For 35
39 Goals Against 55
2.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
1.08 Avg Goals Conceded 1.62
21 BTTS Yes 17
31 Over 1.5 24
26 Over 2.5 16
13 Over 3.5 8
11 Clean Sheets 7
5 Failed To Score 13
5.81 Shots On Goal 3.47
16.56 Total Shots 11.21
6.28 Corners 3.53
52.6% Ball Possession 42.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Lens's more proactive style and Nantes's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Lens arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 64 points compared to Nantes in 17 on 23, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lens expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Nantes in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nantes having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Nantes.

Lens Analysis

Placed 2 with 64 points from 31 outings, Lens continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 20 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 61:33 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Odsonne Édouard (12 goals), F. Thauvin (10 goals), W. Said (10 goals), with creative support from Adrien Thomasson (9 assists), Matthieu Udol (7 assists), F. Thauvin (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 13 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with J. Gradit, R. Gurtner, S. Abdulhamid, M. Sangare, A. Thomasson unavailable.

Nantes Analysis

With 23 points from 32 games and a place of 17, Nantes still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 19 defeats with a 29:51 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Abline (6 goals), Mostafa Mohamed (4 goals), Fabien Centonze (3 goals), with creative support from M. Abline (4 assists), Chidozie Awaziem (2 assists), M. Kaba (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with F. Centonze, T. Tati, K. Amian unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lens won 8 times, Nantes won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:18 from Lens's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Lens 3-4-2-1 / Nantes 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Lens 7, Nantes 5
H2H summary: Lens wins 8, draws 4, Nantes wins 3
Stats
Lens Lens
Nantes Nantes
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
6
8 Corner Kicks 3
15 Fouls 15
4 Offsides 0
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Goal 3
5 Shots off Goal 6
4 Blocked Shots 6
9 Shots insidebox 9
5 Shots outsidebox 6
3 Goalkeeper Saves 4
467 Total passes 260
380 Passes accurate 182
0.82 expected_goals 1.25
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Lens
Formation
Nantes
R. Risser
R. Risser
I. Ganiou
I. Ganiou
S. Baidoo
S. Baidoo
M. Sarr
M. Sarr
A. Sima
A. Sima
A. Bulatovic
🎯
A. Bulatovic
A. Haidara
A. Haidara
M. Udol
M. Udol
R. Fofana
R. Fofana
W. Said
W. Said
O. Edouard
O. Edouard
A. Lopes
A. Lopes
C. Awaziem
C. Awaziem
U. Radakovic
U. Radakovic
N. Cozza
N. Cozza
I. Sissoko
I. Sissoko
M. Acapandie
M. Acapandie
M. Kaba
M. Kaba
J. Lepenant
J. Lepenant
F. Guilbert
F. Guilbert
I. Ganago
I. Ganago
M. Abline
M. Abline
Lens 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
40
R. Risser
G
25
I. Ganiou
D
6
S. Baidoo
D
20
M. Sarr
D
19
A. Sima
↓ 79' 🟨 15'
M
5
A. Bulatovic
🎯 79' 🟨 36'
M
21
A. Haidara
↓ 65'
M
14
M. Udol
M
38
R. Fofana
↓ 46'
F
22
W. Said
↓ 79'
F
11
O. Edouard
↓ 59'
F
Substitutes
16
M. Gorgelin
G
27
A. Masuaku
D
4
N. Celik
D
32
K. Antonio
D
7
F. Sotoca
↑ 46'
F
2
R. Aguilar
↑ 59'
D
18
F. Sylla
↑ 65'
M
26
A. Bermont
↑ 79'
M
41
M. Soares
⚽ 79' ↑ 79'
M
Nantes 3-1-4-2
Starting XI
1
A. Lopes
G
6
C. Awaziem
D
26
U. Radakovic
↓ 66'
D
3
N. Cozza
D
28
I. Sissoko
M
22
M. Acapandie
M
21
M. Kaba
↓ 82'
M
8
J. Lepenant
M
24
F. Guilbert
↓ 87'
M
37
I. Ganago
↓ 82'
F
10
M. Abline
↓ 82'
F
Substitutes
30
P. Carlgren
G
19
Y. El Arabi
↑ 82'
F
20
R. Cabella
M
31
Mostafa Mohamed
↑ 82'
F
2
Ali Youssef
↑ 66' 🟨 75'
D
72
S. Doucoure
D
17
D. Tabibou
↑ 87'
M
66
L. Leroux
↑ 82'
M
11
B. Guirassy
F
Last matches: Lens
25.07.26
Fri
Lens
Charleroi
2
2
D
18.07.26
Fri
Lens
Boulogne
4
1
W
22.05.26
Cou
Lens
Nice
3
1
W
17.05.26
Lig
Lens
Lyon
4
0
W
13.05.26
Lig
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
0
2
L
02.05.26
Lig
Lens
Nice
1
1
D
24.04.26
Lig
Lens
Stade Brestois 29
3
3
D
21.04.26
Cou
Lens
Toulouse
4
1
W
17.04.26
Lig
Lens
Toulouse
3
2
W
11.04.26
Fri
Lens
Rouen
2
1
W
04.04.26
Lig
Lens
Lille
0
3
L
20.03.26
Lig
Lens
Angers
5
1
W
14.03.26
Lig
Lens
Lorient
1
2
L
08.03.26
Lig
Lens
Metz
3
0
W
05.03.26
Cou
Lens
Lyon
2
2
D
27.02.26
Lig
Lens
Strasbourg
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Lens
Monaco
2
3
L
14.02.26
Lig
Lens
Paris FC
5
0
W
07.02.26
Lig
Lens
Rennes
3
1
W
04.02.26
Cou
Lens
Estac Troyes
4
2
W
Last matches: Nantes
22.07.26
Fri
Nantes
La Roche VF
1
1
D
18.07.26
Fri
Nantes
Lorient
0
1
L
11.07.26
Fri
Nantes
Fleury 91
5
0
W
02.05.26
Lig
Nantes
Marseille
3
0
W
26.04.26
Lig
Nantes
Rennes
1
2
L
22.04.26
Lig
Nantes
Paris Saint Germain
0
3
L
19.04.26
Lig
Nantes
Stade Brestois 29
1
1
D
11.04.26
Lig
Nantes
Auxerre
0
0
D
05.04.26
Lig
Nantes
Metz
0
0
D
22.03.26
Lig
Nantes
Strasbourg
2
3
L
07.03.26
Lig
Nantes
Angers
0
1
L
01.03.26
Lig
Nantes
Lille
0
1
L
22.02.26
Lig
Nantes
Le Havre
2
0
W
13.02.26
Lig
Nantes
Monaco
1
3
L
07.02.26
Lig
Nantes
Lyon
0
1
L
31.01.26
Lig
Nantes
Lorient
1
2
L
25.01.26
Lig
Nantes
Nice
1
4
L
18.01.26
Lig
Nantes
Paris FC
1
2
L
11.01.26
Cou
Nantes
Nice
1
1
D
04.01.26
Lig
Nantes
Marseille
2
0
W
H2H: Lens vs Nantes
08.05.26
H2H
Lens
Nantes
1
0
W
06.12.25
H2H
Nantes
Lens
1
2
W
23.02.25
H2H
Nantes
Lens
3
1
L
09.11.24
H2H
Lens
Nantes
3
2
W
03.02.24
H2H
Nantes
Lens
0
1
W
28.10.23
H2H
Lens
Nantes
4
0
W
01.03.23
H2H
Nantes
Lens
2
1
L
19.02.23
H2H
Lens
Nantes
3
1
W
18.09.22
H2H
Nantes
Lens
0
0
D
30.04.22
H2H
Lens
Nantes
2
2
D
10.12.21
H2H
Nantes
Lens
3
2
L
10.02.21
H2H
Nantes
Lens
2
4
W
17.01.21
H2H
Nantes
Lens
1
1
D
25.11.20
H2H
Lens
Nantes
1
1
D
23.05.15
H2H
Lens
Nantes
1
0
W
Last matches: Lens
25.07.26
Fri
Lens
Charleroi
2
2
D
18.07.26
Fri
Lens
Boulogne
4
1
W
22.05.26
Cou
Lens
Nice
3
1
W
13.05.26
Lig
Lens
Paris Saint Germain
0
2
L
21.04.26
Cou
Lens
Toulouse
4
1
W
17.04.26
Lig
Lens
Toulouse
3
2
W
11.04.26
Fri
Lens
Rouen
2
1
W
20.03.26
Lig
Lens
Angers
5
1
W
08.03.26
Lig
Lens
Metz
3
0
W
21.02.26
Lig
Lens
Monaco
2
3
L
07.02.26
Lig
Lens
Rennes
3
1
W
30.01.26
Lig
Lens
Le Havre
1
0
W
17.01.26
Lig
Lens
Auxerre
1
0
W
19.12.25
Cou
Lens
Feignies-Aulnoye
3
1
W
14.12.25
Lig
Lens
Nice
2
0
W
22.11.25
Lig
Lens
Strasbourg
1
0
W
02.11.25
Lig
Lens
Lorient
3
0
W
25.10.25
Lig
Lens
Marseille
2
1
W
19.10.25
Lig
Lens
Paris FC
2
1
W
20.09.25
Lig
Lens
Lille
3
0
W
H2H at home: Lens
08.05.26
H2H
Lens
Nantes
1
0
W
09.11.24
H2H
Lens
Nantes
3
2
W
28.10.23
H2H
Lens
Nantes
4
0
W
19.02.23
H2H
Lens
Nantes
3
1
W
30.04.22
H2H
Lens
Nantes
2
2
D
25.11.20
H2H
Lens
Nantes
1
1
D
23.05.15
H2H
Lens
Nantes
1
0
W
Last matches: Nantes
18.07.26
Fri
Nantes
Lorient
0
1
L
11.07.26
Fri
Nantes
Fleury 91
5
0
W
26.04.26
Lig
Nantes
Rennes
1
2
L
22.04.26
Lig
Nantes
Paris Saint Germain
0
3
L
11.04.26
Lig
Nantes
Auxerre
0
0
D
05.04.26
Lig
Nantes
Metz
0
0
D
01.03.26
Lig
Nantes
Lille
0
1
L
13.02.26
Lig
Nantes
Monaco
1
3
L
31.01.26
Lig
Nantes
Lorient
1
2
L
04.01.26
Lig
Nantes
Marseille
2
0
W
21.12.25
Cou
Nantes
Concarneau
5
3
W
12.12.25
Lig
Nantes
Angers
1
4
L
30.11.25
Lig
Nantes
Lyon
0
3
L
08.11.25
Lig
Nantes
Le Havre
1
1
D
24.10.25
Lig
Nantes
Paris FC
2
1
W
04.10.25
Lig
Nantes
Stade Brestois 29
0
0
D
27.09.25
Lig
Nantes
Toulouse
2
2
D
13.09.25
Lig
Nantes
Nice
0
1
L
24.08.25
Lig
Nantes
Strasbourg
0
1
L
10.05.25
Lig
Nantes
Auxerre
1
1
D
H2H away: Nantes
08.05.26
H2H
Lens
Nantes
1
0
L
09.11.24
H2H
Lens
Nantes
3
2
L
28.10.23
H2H
Lens
Nantes
4
0
L
19.02.23
H2H
Lens
Nantes
3
1
L
30.04.22
H2H
Lens
Nantes
2
2
D
25.11.20
H2H
Lens
Nantes
1
1
D
23.05.15
H2H
Lens
Nantes
1
0
L

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2
Lens Home
34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
Champions League
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Lens 7 missing
-
J. Gradit
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
R. Gurtner
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
S. Abdulhamid
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
M. Sangare
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
A. Thomasson
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
A. Saint-Maximin
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
F. Thauvin
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
Nantes 5 missing
-
F. Centonze
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
F. Coquelin
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
T. Tati
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
K. Amian
Missing Fixture Groin Injury
OUT
-
D. Machado
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT