POLAND EKSTRAKLASA
--.--.---- --:--
Stadion Poznan
Referee: M. Szczerbowicz
Lech Poznan
Match Timeline
Wisla Plock
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
30'
L. Palma
Lech Poznan
🔄
46'
D. Kun ↔ D. Sarapata
Wisla Plock
🔄
46'
S. Hamulic ↔ G. Niarchos
Wisla Plock
48'
Z. Rogelj · Assist: M. Djalo
Wisla Plock
🟨
55'
Mateusz Skrzypczak
Lech Poznan
🔄
57'
L. Bengtsson ↔ D. Hakans
Lech Poznan
🔄
57'
P. Rodriguez ↔ F. Jagiello
Lech Poznan
🔄
57'
A. Kozubal ↔ R. Murawski
Lech Poznan
59'
P. Walemark · Assist: M. Gurgul
Lech Poznan
VAR
63'
Nemanja Mijušković
Wisla Plock
🔄
66'
M. Skrzypczak ↔ R. Gumny
Lech Poznan
🔄
78'
D. Gallapeni ↔ N. Rogowski
Wisla Plock
🔄
78'
M. Djalo ↔ L. Sekulski
Wisla Plock
🟨
81'
Dominik Sarapata
Wisla Plock
🔄
83'
M. Ishak ↔ Y. Agnero
Lech Poznan
🔄
86'
Q. Lecoeuche ↔ I. Salvador
Wisla Plock
VAR
89'
Yannick Agnero
Lech Poznan
🟨
90+8'
Iban Salvador
Wisla Plock
90'
M. Kaminski · Assist: G. Niarchos
Wisla Plock

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Lech Poznan Win 55.2%
Draw 10%
Wisla Plock Win 34.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lech Poznan1.55
Wisla Plock1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lech Poznan Lech Poznan
WWDLW
91 GF / 66 GA
Wisla Plock Wisla Plock
WLDWL
32 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.86
Average Goals Scored
0.97
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
34
BTTS Yes
15
32
Over 2.5
11
5.51
Shots on Goal
3.52

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 49 matches
Wisla Plock Wisla Plock 33 matches
Lech Poznan Statistic Wisla Plock
25 Wins 12
13 Draws 9
11 Losses 12
91 Goals For 32
66 Goals Against 36
1.86 Avg Goals Scored 0.97
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
34 BTTS Yes 15
39 Over 1.5 23
32 Over 2.5 11
21 Over 3.5 3
14 Clean Sheets 7
4 Failed To Score 13
5.51 Shots On Goal 3.52
15.53 Total Shots 11.88
5.12 Corners 4.27
52.2% Ball Possession 43.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Lech Poznan's more proactive style and Wisla Plock's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Lech Poznan come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Wisla Plock. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lech Poznan expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Wisla Plock in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Wisla Plock having the stronger overall control.

Lech Poznan Analysis

Lech Poznan come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 59 points after 33 matches. The return of 16 wins, 11 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 60:43, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through M. Ishak (16 goals), Luis Palma (9 goals), Ali Gholizadeh (6 goals), with creative support from Luis Palma (6 assists), M. Ishak (5 assists), J. Pereira (5 assists), while their defending has remained quite vulnerable. At home, the split of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Wisla Plock Analysis

With 45 points from 33 games and a place of 8, Wisla Plock still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 12 wins, 9 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 32:36 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on L. Sekulski (8 goals), Deni Jurić (5 goals), Wiktor Nowak (4 goals), with creative support from D. Kun (4 assists), Dani Pacheco (3 assists), J. Jimenez (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Lech Poznan won 7 times, Wisla Plock won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:11 from Lech Poznan's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90%)
Predicted formations: Lech Poznan 4-2-3-1 / Wisla Plock 3-5-2
H2H summary: Lech Poznan wins 7, draws 3, Wisla Plock wins 2

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 16 12 6 62:45 17 60
D W D W W
2 34 16 8 10 50:38 12 56
W W D L W
3 34 15 11 8 56:41 15 56
W D W W L
4 34 16 7 11 51:40 11 55
W W L W W
5 34 14 8 12 51:45 6 50
D D D W D
6 34 12 13 9 42:37 5 49
W W W W L
7 34 13 9 12 45:38 7 48
L L W D L
8 34 12 10 12 34:38 -4 46
D L L L L
9 34 13 6 15 47:49 -2 45
D W L W D
10 34 11 11 12 52:53 -1 44
L L D W W
11 34 11 10 13 40:40 0 43
D W L D D
12 34 10 13 11 46:53 -7 43
L D W L L
13 34 9 15 10 39:42 -3 42
D D D D D
14 34 12 6 16 41:41 0 42
W L W L W
15 34 11 8 15 42:46 -4 41
L L D D W
16 34 12 7 15 62:65 -3 38
L L L L L
17 34 9 9 16 34:61 -27 36
L L D D L
18 34 9 7 18 43:65 -22 34
W W L L W
Champions League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation