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18.10.2026 15:30
Stadion Poznan
Referee: Lukasz Kuzma, Poland
Lech Poznan
Match Timeline
Korona Kielce
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
4'
P. Walemark · Assist: P. Rodriguez
Lech Poznan
⚽
6'
P. Rodriguez · Assist: J. Pereira
Lech Poznan
⚽
23'
M. Ishak · Assist: P. Rodriguez
Lech Poznan
🔄
29'
O. Lingr ↔ M. Remacle
Korona Kielce
🟨
45+2'
Radosław Murawski
Lech Poznan
⚽
45'
P. Rodriguez · Assist: M. Ishak
Lech Poznan
🔄
46'
K. Jakubczyk ↔ S. Gustafson
Korona Kielce
🔄
46'
M. Pieczek ↔ K. Matuszewski
Korona Kielce
🔄
46'
M. Ameyaw ↔ M. Fassbender
Korona Kielce
⚽
55'
M. Ishak · Assist: P. Rodriguez
Lech Poznan
⚽
57'
C. Mena · Assist: W. Dlugosz
Korona Kielce
🔄
58'
T. Yegbe ↔ H. Janyszka
Lech Poznan
🔄
58'
R. Murawski ↔ G. Berggren
Lech Poznan
🔄
58'
P. Walemark ↔ D. Hakans
Lech Poznan
🟨
61'
Pablo Rodríguez
Lech Poznan
🔄
62'
M. Stepinski ↔ D. Bak
Korona Kielce
🔄
68'
P. Rodriguez ↔ F. Jagiello
Lech Poznan
🟨
72'
Daniel Bąk
Korona Kielce
🔄
76'
M. Ishak ↔ Y. Agnero
Lech Poznan
🟨
85'
Slobodan Rubežić
Korona Kielce
🟨
90'
Morgan Fassbender
Korona Kielce
⚽
90'
Y. Agnero · Assist: M. Gurgul
Lech Poznan

Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Lech Poznan Win 64.7%
Draw 3.5%
Korona Kielce Win 31.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lech Poznan1.8
Korona Kielce1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lech Poznan Lech Poznan
L W D W L
11 GF / 12 GA
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce
L L W L W
6 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
2.3
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.22
Average Goals Conceded
1.05
12
BTTS Yes
8
19
Over 2.5
6
6.53
Shots on Goal
4.3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 23 matches
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 19 matches
Lech Poznan Statistic Korona Kielce
15 Wins 8
3 Draws 6
5 Losses 5
53 Goals For 23
28 Goals Against 20
2.3 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.22 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
12 BTTS Yes 8
19 Over 1.5 14
19 Over 2.5 6
12 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 7
5 Failed To Score 7
6.53 Shots On Goal 4.3
16.47 Total Shots 14
6.41 Corners 4.8
49.9% Ball Possession 47.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Lech Poznan come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Lech Poznan arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 22 points compared to Korona Kielce in 7 on 15, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lech Poznan expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Korona Kielce in 4-5-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Korona Kielce having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Korona Kielce. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Lech Poznan Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 22 points from 9 games, Lech Poznan bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 21:8, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through A. Sayyadmanesh (5 goals), P. Wålemark (4 goals), Pablo Rodríguez (3 goals), with creative support from P. Wålemark (3 assists), Pablo Rodríguez (3 assists), M. Ishak (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Korona Kielce Analysis

Korona Kielce are currently 7 in the standings with 15 points from 9 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, while the 12:10 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Stępiński (6 goals), M. Faßbender (1 goals), O. Lingr (1 goals), with creative support from W. Długosz (4 assists), Kamil Jakubczyk (1 assists), M. Remacle (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Lech Poznan won 8 times, Korona Kielce won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:9 from Lech Poznan's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.5%)
Predicted formations: Lech Poznan 4-4-2 / Korona Kielce 4-5-1
H2H summary: Lech Poznan wins 8, draws 3, Korona Kielce wins 1

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 9 1 1 29:10 19 28
W W W W L
2 12 8 3 1 21:11 10 27
D D W D W
3 11 7 3 1 19:9 10 24
W W W W W
4 12 6 5 1 23:11 12 23
L D W W D
5 12 6 3 3 19:15 4 21
W D L W W
6 12 6 2 4 22:18 4 20
W D W L W
7 12 5 4 3 15:15 0 19
D W L L W
8 12 6 0 6 22:17 5 18
L L W W W
9 12 5 3 4 14:18 -4 18
W L L W L
10 11 5 0 6 14:17 -3 15
W L L L L
11 11 4 2 5 10:16 -6 14
L W L W W
12 12 3 4 5 17:21 -4 13
D W W D L
13 12 3 3 6 14:19 -5 12
L D W L L
14 12 1 8 3 15:16 -1 11
D D L D D
15 12 2 3 7 16:22 -6 9
W L L L L
16 12 2 2 8 16:23 -7 8
L L L W D
17 12 2 2 8 12:28 -16 8
L L L L L
18 12 2 0 10 16:28 -12 6
L W L L L
Qualifying
EL Qualification
Play-offs
Relegation