ITALY SERIE A
20.04.2026 18:45
Stadio Via del Mare
Referee: F. Maresca
Lecce
Match Timeline
Fiorentina
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
11'
R. Gosens ↔ L. Balbo
Fiorentina
30'
J. Harrison · Assist: R. Mandragora
Fiorentina
🔄
56'
K. Ndri ↔ L. Banda
Lecce
🔄
57'
O. Ngom ↔ O. Gandelman
Lecce
🔄
57'
W. Cheddira ↔ N. Stulic
Lecce
🔄
60'
A. Gudmundsson ↔ M. Solomon
Fiorentina
🟨
62'
Santiago Pierotti
Lecce
71'
Tiago Gabriel · Assist: A. Gallo
Lecce
🟨
72'
Tiago Gabriel
Lecce
🟨
76'
David De Gea
Fiorentina
🟨
79'
Marin Pongračić
Fiorentina
🔄
80'
J. Harrison ↔ J. Fazzini
Fiorentina
🔄
80'
N. Fagioli ↔ G. Fabbian
Fiorentina
🔄
80'
C. Ndour ↔ M. Brescianini
Fiorentina
🟨
82'
Jacopo Fazzini
Fiorentina
🔄
85'
A. Gallo ↔ C. Ndaba
Lecce
🟨
90+1'
Manor Solomon
Fiorentina

Lecce vs Fiorentina Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 64.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
64.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.7%
-
Probability Distribution
Lecce Win 31.2%
Draw 13%
Fiorentina Win 55.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lecce0.95
Fiorentina1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lecce Lecce
WWDLW
23 GF / 48 GA
Fiorentina Fiorentina
WLDWL
63 GF / 64 GA
Key Stats
0.68
Average Goals Scored
1.34
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
11
BTTS Yes
28
13
Over 2.5
30
2.29
Shots on Goal
4.06

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lecce Lecce 34 matches
Fiorentina Fiorentina 47 matches
Lecce Statistic Fiorentina
8 Wins 17
6 Draws 11
20 Losses 19
23 Goals For 63
48 Goals Against 64
0.68 Avg Goals Scored 1.34
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
11 BTTS Yes 28
22 Over 1.5 36
13 Over 2.5 30
4 Over 3.5 11
9 Clean Sheets 11
18 Failed To Score 11
2.29 Shots On Goal 4.06
9.44 Total Shots 13.64
4.35 Corners 4.68
41.1% Ball Possession 51.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Fiorentina. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lecce expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Fiorentina in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fiorentina having the stronger overall control. Lecce have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Lecce Analysis

Lecce approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 27 points from 32 matches. Their record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 19 losses, together with goals at 21:45, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Lameck Banda (3 goals), Lassana Coulibaly (3 goals), Nikola Štulić (3 goals), with creative support from Lameck Banda (3 assists), M. Berisha (3 assists), Antonino Gallo (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without K. Gaspar, M. Berisha, F. Camarda, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

Fiorentina Analysis

Fiorentina approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 35 points from 32 matches. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 11 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 36:44 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Moise Kean (8 goals), R. Mandragora (6 goals), A. Gudmundsson (5 goals), with creative support from A. Gudmundsson (4 assists), Nicolò Fagioli (3 assists), H. Nicolussi Caviglia (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with T. Lamptey, N. Fortini, F. Parisi unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Lecce won 5 times, Fiorentina won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:19 from Lecce's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.29 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87%)
Predicted formations: Lecce 4-2-3-1 / Fiorentina 4-3-3
Missing players: Lecce 5, Fiorentina 4
H2H summary: Lecce wins 5, draws 4, Fiorentina wins 5

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17
Lecce Home
38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B