Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
55.8%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
64.6%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
64.7%
|
- |
Lecce
Fiorentina
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Lecce
34 matches
Fiorentina
47 matches
| Lecce | Statistic | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Wins | 17 |
| 6 | Draws | 11 |
| 20 | Losses | 19 |
| 23 | Goals For | 63 |
| 48 | Goals Against | 64 |
| 0.68 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.34 |
| 1.41 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.36 |
| 11 | BTTS Yes | 28 |
| 22 | Over 1.5 | 36 |
| 13 | Over 2.5 | 30 |
| 4 | Over 3.5 | 11 |
| 9 | Clean Sheets | 11 |
| 18 | Failed To Score | 11 |
| 2.29 | Shots On Goal | 4.06 |
| 9.44 | Total Shots | 13.64 |
| 4.35 | Corners | 4.68 |
| 41.1% | Ball Possession | 51.6% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Fiorentina. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lecce expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Fiorentina in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fiorentina having the stronger overall control. Lecce have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.
Lecce approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 27 points from 32 matches. Their record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 19 losses, together with goals at 21:45, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Lameck Banda (3 goals), Lassana Coulibaly (3 goals), Nikola Štulić (3 goals), with creative support from Lameck Banda (3 assists), M. Berisha (3 assists), Antonino Gallo (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without K. Gaspar, M. Berisha, F. Camarda, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.
Fiorentina approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 35 points from 32 matches. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 11 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 36:44 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Moise Kean (8 goals), R. Mandragora (6 goals), A. Gudmundsson (5 goals), with creative support from A. Gudmundsson (4 assists), Nicolò Fagioli (3 assists), H. Nicolussi Caviglia (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with T. Lamptey, N. Fortini, F. Parisi unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Lecce won 5 times, Fiorentina won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:19 from Lecce's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.29 goals per game.
Lecce
4
3
7
2
3
0
Lineups
Lecce
SS Monopoli
Lecce
Bistrica
Lecce
Istra 1961
Lecce
FC Politehnica Timisoara
Lecce
Szombathelyi Haladas
Lecce
Genoa
Lecce
Sassuolo
Lecce
Juventus
Lecce
Pisa
Lecce
Hellas Verona
Lecce
Bologna
Lecce
Atalanta
Lecce
AS Roma
Lecce
Napoli
Lecce
Cremonese
Lecce
Como
Lecce
Inter
Lecce
Cagliari
Lecce
Udinese
Lecce
Torino
Fiorentina
Deportivo La Coruna
Fiorentina
Real Madrid
Fiorentina
Watford
Fiorentina
QPR
Fiorentina
Gubbio
Fiorentina
Fiorentina U20
Fiorentina
Atalanta
Fiorentina
Juventus
Fiorentina
Genoa
Fiorentina
AS Roma
Fiorentina
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
Crystal Palace
Fiorentina
Lazio
Fiorentina
Crystal Palace
Fiorentina
Hellas Verona
Fiorentina
Inter
Fiorentina
Raków Częstochowa
Fiorentina
Cremonese
Fiorentina
Raków Częstochowa
Fiorentina
Parma
Lecce
SS Monopoli
Lecce
Bistrica
Lecce
Istra 1961
Lecce
FC Politehnica Timisoara
Lecce
Genoa
Lecce
Juventus
Lecce
Atalanta
Lecce
Cremonese
Lecce
Inter
Lecce
Udinese
Lecce
Lazio
Lecce
Parma
Lecce
AS Roma
Lecce
Como
Lecce
Pisa
Lecce
Torino
Lecce
Hellas Verona
Lecce
Napoli
Lecce
Sassuolo
Lecce
Bologna
Fiorentina
Real Madrid
Fiorentina
Watford
Fiorentina
QPR
Fiorentina
Juventus
Fiorentina
AS Roma
Fiorentina
Crystal Palace
Fiorentina
Hellas Verona
Fiorentina
Raków Częstochowa
Fiorentina
Cremonese
Fiorentina
Udinese
Fiorentina
Jagiellonia
Fiorentina
Como
Fiorentina
Napoli
Fiorentina
Bologna
Fiorentina
Lazio
Fiorentina
Parma
Fiorentina
Lausanne
Fiorentina
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
Atalanta
Fiorentina
Genoa
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38 | 27 | 6 | 5 | 89:35 | 54 | 87 |
D
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 2 | 38 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 58:36 | 22 | 76 |
W
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 3 | 38 | 23 | 4 | 11 | 59:31 | 28 | 73 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 65:29 | 36 | 71 |
W
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 5 | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 53:35 | 18 | 70 |
L
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 6 | 38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 61:34 | 27 | 69 |
D
L
W
D
D
|
|
| 7 | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 51:36 | 15 | 59 |
D
L
W
D
L
|
|
| 8 | 38 | 16 | 8 | 14 | 49:46 | 3 | 56 |
D
W
W
D
L
|
|
| 9 | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 41:40 | 1 | 54 |
W
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 10 | 38 | 14 | 8 | 16 | 45:48 | -3 | 50 |
L
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 11 | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 46:50 | -4 | 49 |
L
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 12 | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 44:63 | -19 | 45 |
D
L
W
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 28:46 | -18 | 45 |
W
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 14 | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 40:53 | -13 | 43 |
W
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 15 |
Fiorentina
Away
|
38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 41:50 | -9 | 42 |
D
W
D
L
D
|
| 16 | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 41:51 | -10 | 41 |
L
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 17 |
Lecce
Home
|
38 | 10 | 8 | 20 | 28:50 | -22 | 38 |
W
W
L
W
D
|
| 18 | 38 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 32:57 | -25 | 34 |
L
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 19 | 38 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 25:61 | -36 | 21 |
L
D
L
D
D
|
|
| 20 | 38 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 26:71 | -45 | 18 |
L
L
L
L
L
|