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ITALY › SERIE A
11.10.2026 13:00
Stadio Via del Mare
Referee: Luca J. Pairetto
Lecce
Match Timeline
Bologna
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
10'
Ivan Ilić
Lecce
⚽
17'
Riccardo Orsolini · Assist: Nicolo Cambiaghi
Bologna
🟨
31'
Paco Esteban
Lecce
🔄
36'
Ivan Ilić ↔ Oumar Ngom
Lecce
🟨
44'
Torbjørn Heggem
Bologna
🟨
45+2'
Youssef Maleh
Lecce
🔄
55'
Torbjørn Heggem ↔ Eivind Helland
Bologna
🔄
62'
Paco Esteban ↔ Willem Geubbels
Lecce
🔄
62'
Roberto Piccoli ↔ Jay Enem
Bologna
🔄
62'
Santiago Pierotti ↔ Konan N'Dri
Lecce
🔄
62'
Tommaso Pobega ↔ Oussama El Azzouzi
Bologna
⚽
64'
Amar Fatah · Assist: Danilo Veiga
Lecce
⚽
75'
Jay Enem · Assist: Nicolo Cambiaghi
Bologna
🔄
79'
Amar Fatah ↔ Joel Almada Monteiro
Lecce
🔄
79'
Youssef Maleh ↔ Omri Gandelman
Lecce
🔄
81'
Nicolo Cambiaghi ↔ Federico Bernardeschi
Bologna
🔄
81'
Juan Miranda ↔ Rahim Alhassane
Bologna
🟨
90+4'
Oussama El Azzouzi
Bologna

Lecce vs Bologna Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.7%
Odds 4.17
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds 1.95
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.24
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.7%
4.17 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
1.95 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.24 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
70.9%
1.34 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
7.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Lecce Win 63.7%
Draw 4.9%
Bologna Win 31.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lecce1.38
Bologna1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lecce Lecce
WWDLW
14 GF / 17 GA
Bologna Bologna
WLDWL
10 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
0.91
1.55
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
3
BTTS Yes
5
5
Over 2.5
4
3.5
Shots on Goal
3.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lecce Lecce 11 matches
Bologna Bologna 11 matches
Lecce Statistic Bologna
5 Wins 2
1 Draws 3
5 Losses 6
14 Goals For 10
17 Goals Against 17
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 0.91
1.55 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
3 BTTS Yes 5
7 Over 1.5 7
5 Over 2.5 4
4 Over 3.5 4
3 Clean Sheets 1
5 Failed To Score 5
3.5 Shots On Goal 3.2
10 Total Shots 13.4
4.17 Corners 4.2
41.3% Ball Possession 52.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Bologna. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Lecce arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 12 with 6 points compared to Bologna in 18 on 2, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lecce expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Bologna in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bologna having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Lecce Analysis

Lecce approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 6 points from 5 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 5:10, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Lassana Coulibaly (2 goals), Tiago Gabriel (2 goals), Olaf Gorter (1 goals), with creative support from Ivan Ilić (2 assists), Lassana Coulibaly (1 assists), Danilo Veiga (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Bologna Analysis

With 2 points from 5 games and a place of 18, Bologna still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 3:6 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Federico Bernardeschi (1 goals), Roberto Piccoli (1 goals), A. Dovbyk (1 goals), with creative support from Juan Miranda (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Lecce won 1 times, Bologna won 9 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:24 from Lecce's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.1%)
Predicted formations: Lecce 4-3-3 / Bologna 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Lecce 2, Bologna 3
H2H summary: Lecce wins 1, draws 4, Bologna wins 9

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 18:8 10 16
W D W W W
2 6 4 2 0 14:3 11 14
D D W W W
3 5 4 1 0 8:3 5 13
W D W W W
4 5 4 0 1 5:2 3 12
W W W L W
5 5 3 2 0 10:4 6 11
W D D W W
6 6 3 2 1 9:6 3 11
D L W W W
7 6 3 1 2 10:6 4 10
W D W L L
8 5 3 1 1 8:4 4 10
W L D W W
9 6 3 1 2 9:7 2 10
L W D W W
10 5 2 1 2 9:9 0 7
L W D W L
11 5 2 0 3 5:7 -2 6
L L L W W
12
Lecce Home
5 2 0 3 5:10 -5 6
L W L L W
13 5 1 1 3 8:11 -3 4
L L L W D
14 5 1 1 3 5:8 -3 4
D L W L L
15 5 1 1 3 8:12 -4 4
W L D L L
16 6 1 1 4 5:11 -6 4
W L D L L
17 6 1 1 4 4:10 -6 4
L W L D L
18 6 1 1 4 7:14 -7 4
L D W L L
19 5 0 2 3 3:6 -3 2
D L D L L
20 5 0 0 5 4:13 -9 0
L L L L L
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