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FRANCE › LIGUE 1
16.10.2026 18:45
MMArena
Referee: Aurelien Petit

Le Mans vs Toulouse Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 66.1%
Odds 1.57
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.72
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
66.1%
1.57 ▥
BTTS Yes
88%
1.57 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.72 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
74.1%
1.31 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Le Mans Win 46.7%
Draw 19.4%
Toulouse Win 33.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Le Mans1.62
Toulouse1.53
Recent Form (Last 5)
Le Mans Le Mans
WWDLW
21 GF / 22 GA
Toulouse Toulouse
WLDWL
15 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.5
1.57
Average Goals Conceded
1.8
11
BTTS Yes
8
9
Over 2.5
7
4.67
Shots on Goal
4.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Le Mans Le Mans 14 matches
Toulouse Toulouse 10 matches
Le Mans Statistic Toulouse
4 Wins 2
5 Draws 4
5 Losses 4
21 Goals For 15
22 Goals Against 18
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
1.57 Avg Goals Conceded 1.8
11 BTTS Yes 8
11 Over 1.5 9
9 Over 2.5 7
7 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 0
2 Failed To Score 2
4.67 Shots On Goal 4.5
10.5 Total Shots 13.67
2.83 Corners 4.5
43.2% Ball Possession 50.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Toulouse. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Le Mans expected to line up in 3-1-4-2 and Toulouse in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Toulouse having the stronger overall control.

Le Mans Analysis

From their first 5 matches, Le Mans have collected 6 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 1 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, while the 9:9 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Bourabaa (3 goals), L. Mafouta (3 goals), L. Calodat (1 goals), with creative support from A. Bourabaa (2 assists), L. Mafouta (1 assists), L. Calodat (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Toulouse Analysis

So far, Toulouse have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 5 points from 5 matches. The record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 7:9 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through C. Tengstedt (3 goals), T. Jørgensen (2 goals), C. Tapé (1 goals), with creative support from C. Cásseres (4 assists), T. Jørgensen (1 assists), Yann Gboho (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.6%)
Predicted formations: Le Mans 3-1-4-2 / Toulouse 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Le Mans 3, Toulouse 1

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 2 0 10:5 5 14
D W D W W
2 6 4 1 1 9:4 5 13
W L W W D
3 6 4 1 1 12:10 2 13
W L W W W
4 6 3 2 1 11:4 7 11
L W D W D
5 6 3 2 1 8:4 4 11
L W D W W
6 6 3 2 1 11:8 3 11
W W W L D
7 6 2 2 2 12:9 3 8
W L L W D
8 6 2 2 2 6:6 0 8
W L D W L
9 6 2 2 2 5:7 -2 8
W W L D L
10 6 2 1 3 11:10 1 7
W L D L L
11 6 2 1 3 11:12 -1 7
L L D W W
12 6 2 1 3 7:10 -3 7
L W D L W
13 6 2 0 4 9:8 1 6
W L L L L
14 6 1 3 2 10:12 -2 6
L W D D L
15 6 1 3 2 9:11 -2 6
D W D L D
16 6 2 0 4 8:16 -8 6
L W W L L
17 6 1 1 4 4:13 -9 4
L L L L W
18 6 0 2 4 4:8 -4 2
L L D L D
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