FRANCE LIGUE 1
--.--.---- --:--
Stade Océane
Referee: B. Bastien
Le Havre
Match Timeline
Marseille
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
41'
Sofiane Boufal
Le Havre
🟨
47'
Ayumu Seko
Le Havre
VAR
53'
Mason Greenwood
Marseille
55'
M. Greenwood
Marseille
🟨
57'
Yanis Zouaoui
Le Havre
🟨
59'
Tochukwu Nnadi
Marseille
🔄
66'
T. Nnadi ↔ A. Vermeeren
Marseille
🔄
72'
F. Doucoure ↔ T. Pembele
Le Havre
🔄
72'
S. Boufal ↔ S. Ebonog
Le Havre
🔄
80'
Y. Zouaoui ↔ E. K. Vinette
Le Havre
🟨
81'
Quinten Timber
Marseille
🔄
87'
M. Greenwood ↔ E. Lago
Marseille
🔄
87'
Q. Timber ↔ N. Kamissoko
Marseille
🟨
88'
Simon Ebonog
Le Havre
🔄
89'
L. Gourna-Douath ↔ Y. Kechta
Le Havre
VAR
90+8'
Igor Paixão
Marseille
🔄
90'
A. Gouiri ↔ U. Lamare El Kadmiri
Marseille

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 9.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 36.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
100%
-
BTTS BTTS No
9.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
36.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Le Havre Win 48.2%
Draw 0%
Marseille Win 51.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Le Havre1.09
Marseille1.77
Recent Form (Last 5)
Le Havre Le Havre
WWDLW
30 GF / 45 GA
Marseille Marseille
WLDWL
90 GF / 60 GA
Key Stats
0.91
Average Goals Scored
2.05
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
17
BTTS Yes
21
11
Over 2.5
31
3.64
Shots on Goal
5.77

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Le Havre Le Havre 33 matches
Marseille Marseille 44 matches
Le Havre Statistic Marseille
6 Wins 22
14 Draws 6
13 Losses 16
30 Goals For 90
45 Goals Against 60
0.91 Avg Goals Scored 2.05
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
17 BTTS Yes 21
21 Over 1.5 35
11 Over 2.5 31
6 Over 3.5 18
7 Clean Sheets 12
14 Failed To Score 11
3.64 Shots On Goal 5.77
11.36 Total Shots 14.82
4.45 Corners 5.39
47.6% Ball Possession 57.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Marseille's more proactive style and Le Havre's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Marseille arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Marseille. Marseille carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 53 points while Le Havre sit 14 on 32, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Le Havre expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Marseille in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Marseille having the stronger overall control.

Le Havre Analysis

Le Havre sit 14 with 32 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 6 wins, 14 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 30:43, reflects poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their threat comes through I. Soumare (7 goals), R. Ndiaye (4 goals), F. Doucoure (3 goals), with creative support from I. Soumare (5 assists), R. Ndiaye (4 assists), Sofiane Boufal (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Marseille Analysis

Marseille approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 7 with 53 points from 32 matches. Across the season they have posted 16 wins, 5 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 59:44 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Greenwood (15 goals), P. Aubameyang (9 goals), A. Gouiri (7 goals), with creative support from M. Greenwood (6 assists), P. Aubameyang (5 assists), Igor Paixão (5 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 1 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Le Havre won 0 times, Marseille won 7 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:23 from Le Havre's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 4.14 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Le Havre 4-2-3-1 / Marseille 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Le Havre 2, Marseille 8
H2H summary: Le Havre wins 0, draws 0, Marseille wins 7
Stats
Le Havre Le Havre
Marseille Marseille
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
1
3 Corner Kicks 0
20 Fouls 22
4 Offsides 3
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Goal 3
4 Shots off Goal 4
4 Blocked Shots 1
8 Shots insidebox 5
2 Shots outsidebox 3
2 Goalkeeper Saves 2
386 Total passes 392
310 Passes accurate 317
1.14 expected_goals 1.21
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Le Havre
Formation
Marseille
M. Diaw
M. Diaw
A. Sangante
A. Sangante
A. Seko
A. Seko
G. Lloris
G. Lloris
Y. Zouaoui
Y. Zouaoui
L. Gourna-Douath
L. Gourna-Douath
R. Ndiaye
R. Ndiaye
F. Doucoure
F. Doucoure
S. Boufal
S. Boufal
I. Soumare
I. Soumare
A. Samatta
A. Samatta
G. Rulli
G. Rulli
B. Pavard
B. Pavard
L. Balerdi
L. Balerdi
F. Medina
F. Medina
Emerson
Emerson
T. Nnadi
T. Nnadi
P. Hojbjerg
P. Hojbjerg
M. Greenwood
M. Greenwood
Q. Timber
Q. Timber
I. Paixao
I. Paixao
A. Gouiri
A. Gouiri
Le Havre 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
99
M. Diaw
G
93
A. Sangante
D
15
A. Seko
🟨 47'
D
4
G. Lloris
D
18
Y. Zouaoui
↓ 80' 🟨 57'
D
19
L. Gourna-Douath
↓ 89'
M
14
R. Ndiaye
M
13
F. Doucoure
↓ 72'
M
17
S. Boufal
↓ 72' 🟨 41'
M
45
I. Soumare
M
25
A. Samatta
F
Substitutes
77
L. Mpasi-Nzau
G
10
F. Mambimbi
F
11
G. Kyeremeh
F
8
Y. Kechta
↑ 89'
M
7
L. Nego
D
32
T. Pembele
↑ 72'
D
6
E. Youte Kinkoue
D
26
S. Ebonog
↑ 72' 🟨 88'
M
27
E. K. Vinette
↑ 80'
F
Marseille 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
G. Rulli
G
28
B. Pavard
D
5
L. Balerdi
D
32
F. Medina
D
33
Emerson
D
6
T. Nnadi
↓ 66' 🟨 59'
M
23
P. Hojbjerg
M
10
M. Greenwood
⚽ 55' ↓ 87'
M
27
Q. Timber
↓ 87' 🟨 81'
M
14
I. Paixao
M
9
A. Gouiri
↓ 90'
F
Substitutes
12
J. De Lange
G
11
E. Nwaneri
M
18
A. Vermeeren
↑ 66'
M
72
H. Hamzaoui
D
78
E. Lago
↑ 87'
F
35
K. Bezahaf
D
76
T. Mmadi
M
71
N. Kamissoko
↑ 87'
M
70
U. Lamare El Kadmiri
↑ 90'
F
Last matches: Le Havre
17.07.26
Fri
Le Havre
Amiens
1
2
L
17.05.26
Lig
Le Havre
Lorient
2
0
W
03.05.26
Lig
Le Havre
Lille
1
1
D
26.04.26
Lig
Le Havre
Metz
4
4
D
18.04.26
Lig
Le Havre
Angers
1
1
D
12.04.26
Lig
Le Havre
Nice
1
1
D
05.04.26
Lig
Le Havre
Auxerre
1
1
D
22.03.26
Lig
Le Havre
Paris FC
2
3
L
15.03.26
Lig
Le Havre
Lyon
0
0
D
08.03.26
Lig
Le Havre
Stade Brestois 29
0
2
L
28.02.26
Lig
Le Havre
Paris Saint Germain
0
1
L
22.02.26
Lig
Le Havre
Nantes
0
2
L
15.02.26
Lig
Le Havre
Toulouse
2
1
W
08.02.26
Lig
Le Havre
Strasbourg
2
1
W
30.01.26
Lig
Le Havre
Lens
0
1
L
24.01.26
Lig
Le Havre
Monaco
0
0
D
18.01.26
Lig
Le Havre
Rennes
1
1
D
04.01.26
Lig
Le Havre
Angers
2
1
W
21.12.25
Cou
Le Havre
Amiens
0
2
L
14.12.25
Lig
Le Havre
Lyon
0
1
L
Last matches: Marseille
17.05.26
Lig
Marseille
Rennes
3
1
W
02.05.26
Lig
Marseille
Nantes
0
3
L
26.04.26
Lig
Marseille
Nice
1
1
D
18.04.26
Lig
Marseille
Lorient
0
2
L
10.04.26
Lig
Marseille
Metz
3
1
W
05.04.26
Lig
Marseille
Monaco
1
2
L
22.03.26
Lig
Marseille
Lille
1
2
L
13.03.26
Lig
Marseille
Auxerre
1
0
W
07.03.26
Lig
Marseille
Toulouse
1
0
W
04.03.26
Cou
Marseille
Toulouse
2
2
D
01.03.26
Lig
Marseille
Lyon
3
2
W
20.02.26
Lig
Marseille
Stade Brestois 29
0
2
L
14.02.26
Lig
Marseille
Strasbourg
2
2
D
08.02.26
Lig
Marseille
Paris Saint Germain
0
5
L
03.02.26
Cou
Marseille
Rennes
3
0
W
31.01.26
Lig
Marseille
Paris FC
2
2
D
28.01.26
UEF
Marseille
Club Brugge KV
0
3
L
24.01.26
Lig
Marseille
Lens
3
1
W
21.01.26
UEF
Marseille
Liverpool
0
3
L
17.01.26
Lig
Marseille
Angers
5
2
W
H2H: Le Havre vs Marseille
10.05.26
H2H
Le Havre
Marseille
0
1
L
18.10.25
H2H
Marseille
Le Havre
6
2
L
10.05.25
H2H
Le Havre
Marseille
1
3
L
05.01.25
H2H
Marseille
Le Havre
5
1
L
19.05.24
H2H
Le Havre
Marseille
1
2
L
08.10.23
H2H
Marseille
Le Havre
3
0
L
22.01.12
H2H
Marseille
Le Havre
3
1
L
Last matches: Le Havre
17.07.26
Fri
Le Havre
Amiens
1
2
L
26.04.26
Lig
Le Havre
Metz
4
4
D
05.04.26
Lig
Le Havre
Auxerre
1
1
D
15.03.26
Lig
Le Havre
Lyon
0
0
D
28.02.26
Lig
Le Havre
Paris Saint Germain
0
1
L
15.02.26
Lig
Le Havre
Toulouse
2
1
W
08.02.26
Lig
Le Havre
Strasbourg
2
1
W
24.01.26
Lig
Le Havre
Monaco
0
0
D
04.01.26
Lig
Le Havre
Angers
2
1
W
21.12.25
Cou
Le Havre
Amiens
0
2
L
07.12.25
Lig
Le Havre
Paris FC
0
0
D
30.11.25
Lig
Le Havre
Lille
0
1
L
08.11.25
Lig
Le Havre
Nantes
1
1
D
29.10.25
Lig
Le Havre
Stade Brestois 29
1
0
W
05.10.25
Lig
Le Havre
Rennes
2
2
D
21.09.25
Lig
Le Havre
Lorient
1
1
D
31.08.25
Lig
Le Havre
Nice
3
1
W
24.08.25
Lig
Le Havre
Lens
1
2
L
10.05.25
Lig
Le Havre
Marseille
1
3
L
26.04.25
Lig
Le Havre
Monaco
1
1
D
H2H at home: Le Havre
10.05.26
H2H
Le Havre
Marseille
0
1
L
10.05.25
H2H
Le Havre
Marseille
1
3
L
19.05.24
H2H
Le Havre
Marseille
1
2
L
Last matches: Marseille
02.05.26
Lig
Marseille
Nantes
0
3
L
18.04.26
Lig
Marseille
Lorient
0
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Marseille
Monaco
1
2
L
07.03.26
Lig
Marseille
Toulouse
1
0
W
20.02.26
Lig
Marseille
Stade Brestois 29
0
2
L
08.02.26
Lig
Marseille
Paris Saint Germain
0
5
L
31.01.26
Lig
Marseille
Paris FC
2
2
D
28.01.26
UEF
Marseille
Club Brugge KV
0
3
L
17.01.26
Lig
Marseille
Angers
5
2
W
13.01.26
Cou
Marseille
Bayeux
9
0
W
21.12.25
Cou
Marseille
Bourg-en-bresse 01
6
0
W
09.12.25
UEF
Marseille
Union St. Gilloise
3
2
W
05.12.25
Lig
Marseille
Lille
0
1
L
21.11.25
Lig
Marseille
Nice
5
1
W
01.11.25
Lig
Marseille
Auxerre
1
0
W
25.10.25
Lig
Marseille
Lens
1
2
L
22.10.25
UEF
Marseille
Sporting CP
1
2
L
04.10.25
Lig
Marseille
Metz
3
0
W
26.09.25
Lig
Marseille
Strasbourg
2
1
W
16.09.25
UEF
Marseille
Real Madrid
1
2
L
H2H away: Marseille
10.05.26
H2H
Le Havre
Marseille
0
1
W
10.05.25
H2H
Le Havre
Marseille
1
3
W
19.05.24
H2H
Le Havre
Marseille
1
2
W

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
Champions League
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Le Havre 2 missing
-
A. Toure
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
S. Zagadou
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
Marseille 8 missing
-
N. Aguerd
Missing Fixture Groin Injury
OUT
-
G. Kondogbia
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
C. Egan-Riley
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
B. Nadir
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
H. Abdelli
Missing Fixture Coach's decision
OUT
-
H. J. Traore
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
T. Weah
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
P. Aubameyang
Missing Fixture Suspended
OUT