FRANCE LIGUE 1
10.05.2026 19:00
Stade Océane
Referee: B. Bastien
Le Havre
Match Timeline
Marseille
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
41'
Sofiane Boufal
Le Havre
🟨
47'
Ayumu Seko
Le Havre
VAR
53'
Mason Greenwood
Marseille
55'
M. Greenwood
Marseille
🟨
57'
Yanis Zouaoui
Le Havre
🟨
59'
Tochukwu Nnadi
Marseille
🔄
66'
T. Nnadi ↔ A. Vermeeren
Marseille
🔄
72'
F. Doucoure ↔ T. Pembele
Le Havre
🔄
72'
S. Boufal ↔ S. Ebonog
Le Havre
🔄
80'
Y. Zouaoui ↔ E. K. Vinette
Le Havre
🟨
81'
Quinten Timber
Marseille
🔄
87'
M. Greenwood ↔ E. Lago
Marseille
🔄
87'
Q. Timber ↔ N. Kamissoko
Marseille
🟨
88'
Simon Ebonog
Le Havre
🔄
89'
L. Gourna-Douath ↔ Y. Kechta
Le Havre
VAR
90+8'
Igor Paixão
Marseille
🔄
90'
A. Gouiri ↔ U. Lamare El Kadmiri
Marseille

Le Havre vs Marseille Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 9.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 36.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
100%
-
BTTS BTTS No
9.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
36.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Le Havre Win 48.2%
Draw 0%
Marseille Win 51.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Le Havre1.09
Marseille1.77
Recent Form (Last 5)
Le Havre Le Havre
WWDLW
30 GF / 45 GA
Marseille Marseille
WLDWL
90 GF / 60 GA
Key Stats
0.91
Average Goals Scored
2.05
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
17
BTTS Yes
21
11
Over 2.5
31
3.64
Shots on Goal
5.77

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Le Havre Le Havre 33 matches
Marseille Marseille 44 matches
Le Havre Statistic Marseille
6 Wins 22
14 Draws 6
13 Losses 16
30 Goals For 90
45 Goals Against 60
0.91 Avg Goals Scored 2.05
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
17 BTTS Yes 21
21 Over 1.5 35
11 Over 2.5 31
6 Over 3.5 18
7 Clean Sheets 12
14 Failed To Score 11
3.64 Shots On Goal 5.77
11.36 Total Shots 14.82
4.45 Corners 5.39
47.6% Ball Possession 57.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Marseille's more proactive style and Le Havre's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Marseille arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Marseille. Marseille carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 53 points while Le Havre sit 14 on 32, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Le Havre expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Marseille in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Marseille having the stronger overall control.

Le Havre Analysis

Le Havre sit 14 with 32 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 6 wins, 14 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 30:43, reflects poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their threat comes through I. Soumare (7 goals), R. Ndiaye (4 goals), F. Doucoure (3 goals), with creative support from I. Soumare (5 assists), R. Ndiaye (4 assists), Sofiane Boufal (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Marseille Analysis

Marseille approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 7 with 53 points from 32 matches. Across the season they have posted 16 wins, 5 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 59:44 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Greenwood (15 goals), P. Aubameyang (9 goals), A. Gouiri (7 goals), with creative support from M. Greenwood (6 assists), P. Aubameyang (5 assists), Igor Paixão (5 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 1 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Le Havre won 0 times, Marseille won 7 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:23 from Le Havre's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 4.14 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Le Havre 4-2-3-1 / Marseille 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Le Havre 2, Marseille 8
H2H summary: Le Havre wins 0, draws 0, Marseille wins 7

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
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